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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Aligning the graphs to same point in time and they follow similar upward trajectory and experience exponential growth in confirmed cases and deaths. The main difference is the rate of exponential growth varies from country to country. European nations and USA have high numbers of people over 60+ that significantly contribute towards their death tallies. The countries with high number of cases with lower death rates have less people over 60+. 



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Athaba said:
Germany has 100.000+ cases, all confirmed, but the death rate is very low compared to other regions. Wonder what's the reason. Aren't they counting death outside hospitals?

The prevailing opinion is that Germany has done just a lot more testing than most countries, which means the number of undetected people is lower. So it's not that there are fewer people dying, it's more that in most other countries a lot of cases remain undetected, which increases their death rate. We also shut down pretty early and prevented the virus to spread very fast. I don't think that Germany's health system is so much better than Spain or Italy. They just have far more undetected cases and a larger spread.

Another part is demographics and culture. Young people don't have a lot of contact with older people here and we do not kiss for greetings for example.



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Athaba said:
Germany has 100.000+ cases, all confirmed, but the death rate is very low compared to other regions. Wonder what's the reason. Aren't they counting death outside hospitals?

They tested alot, so they found alot of those "asymptomatic" people, most other countries dont "catch" in the test numbers.

Ontop of that, the "earlier" on you know someone has the illness the "earlier" you can start treating them with stuff to help fight the virus.
Which is what I think germany is doing, so there are basically helping those "mild cases of symptoms" to a higher degree than other countries.
This means less of the "mild cases" turn into "serious cases" (and die).

Most other places in the world, we only test those we suspect to aleady have it, or are showing serious symptoms.

vivster said:
Athaba said:
Germany has 100.000+ cases, all confirmed, but the death rate is very low compared to other regions. Wonder what's the reason. Aren't they counting death outside hospitals?

Another part is demographics and culture. Young people don't have a lot of contact with older people here and we do not kiss for greetings for example.


^ this.  
Infection more heavily hit the younger demographic in germany than the elderly.
While in denmark, it was middleaged/elderly going on vacations, and skiiing, that brought it back to denmark.

If a older person, is infected and he spreads it to his circle of friends (also elderly)...... case mortality rates will be higher in that country.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 07 April 2020

Athaba said:
Germany has 100.000+ cases, all confirmed, but the death rate is very low compared to other regions. Wonder what's the reason. Aren't they counting death outside hospitals?

It's because Germans have superior DNA, right vivster?



JRPGfan said:
barneystinson69 said:
So its probably coin-toss odds that Boris Johnson makes it at this point?

Yikes. Really hoping he pulls through.

Apparently once your a week or so on ventilator your odds drop by alot.
I swear I remember hearing a doctor saying than more than 80% of patients that get on a ventilator (due to this virus), never leave it.

ventilating patients is a very risky and invasive last resort effort as the patients have to be sedated to stop their own breathing (would counter act the machine) - it also works in the opposite way to natural breathing (pushing oxygene in with overpressure, instead of sucking it in with underpressure) and this aswell as high oxygene saturations can destroy lunge tissue and especially harms elderly patients, which is why over 80y it's not clear if the treatment even improves ones survival chances even in very severe cases

Last edited by Lafiel - on 07 April 2020

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supermattia10 said:

The real problem of this delayed peak of active cases in Italy is especially caused by a slower hospital discharges.

If you compare Italy & Spain, Spain has more than 40K recovered cases, Italy has only 22K; maybe Italy is only keeping people that have had Covid more time in hospital than other nations, so is normal that the active cases continues to raise.

I see more relevant the trend of critical cases, and from 1st April this number is decreasing regularly, from 4200 to 3898; so I can say that we have already reached the peak of cases.

Yep, that's the more important peak anyway and declining the same as reported deaths are already declining. Both should start falling faster in a couple days. Deaths are on average 20 days delayed from onset of symptoms after an average incubation period of 5 days. So by now any new deaths are from after the growth peak, while my gut feeling (and critical case numbers falling) tells me that since the growth peak the percentage of mild case detection has been going up vs confirming those with heavy symptoms. 

The question for future outbreaks is, how long is suppression actually necessary and still effective. Do we need to keep going until fewer than a 100 cases a day are detected, or can some restrictions be lifted earlier while staying on top of detecting cases. It's the asymptomatic cases that will flare up the spread again, so as long as you can't trace and test all contacts with known cases, it's probably better to keep heavy social distancing in place. Will it come to a system where you need to get tested before getting cleared to go back to work?

JRPGfan said:
Athaba said:
Germany has 100.000+ cases, all confirmed, but the death rate is very low compared to other regions. Wonder what's the reason. Aren't they counting death outside hospitals?

They tested alot, so they found alot of those "asymptomatic" people, most other countries dont "catch" in the test numbers.

Ontop of that, the "earlier" on you know someone has the illness the "earlier" you can start treating them with stuff to help fight the virus.
Which is what I think germany is doing, so there are basically helping those "mild cases of symptoms" to a higher degree than other countries.
This means less of the "mild cases" turn into "serious cases" (and die).

Most other places in the world, we only test those we suspect to aleady have it, or are showing serious symptoms.

There is no treatment, you can't help mild cases to not turn into serious cases, hence hospitals just send people home to self quarantine until it (maybe) gets bad. It's indeed difference in amount of testing, efficiency in tracing contacts and difference in interaction between younger and older people. The avg reported deaths in Germany are not growing any differently from other countries, they are simply a lower percentage of total detected cases.

The reported deaths in Germany are growing in lock step with the Netherlands and Belgium, while their detected cases have been following France and Spain. Germany is currently outpacing The Netherlands and Belgium for reported deaths while their detected cases have fallen below UK level. Germany seems to have the biggest swings between weekend and mid week reporting for detected cases, these are Saturday to Monday averages.

As of April 5th, 3 day average growth
Spain +5825
France +5282
UK +4480
Italy +4240
Germany +4072
Turkey +3099
Belgium +1348
Netherlands +1027
Switzerland +684
Sweden +358
Denmark +308
Austria +258
Norway +165

3 day average reported deaths
France 801 (many corrections coming through from previously uncounted deaths outside hospitals)
Spain 714
Italy 614
UK 589
Germany 178
Belgium 163
Netherlands 127
Turkey 75
Switzerland 58
Sweden 40
Austria 17
Denmark 16
Norway 6



Basically you either die or get better. Hospitals can barely do shit right now.  Just waiting for USA for profit medical system to collapse but I'm sure their greedy asses will get bailed out.   All cheers for profit health care system.  I'm just glad this virus finally puts to rest USA has best medical system.   That is bullshit and I've know it for over 20 years.  For profit health care can kiss my ass.

Last edited by sethnintendo - on 07 April 2020

sethnintendo said:

Basically you either die or get better. Hospitals can barely do shit right now.  Just waiting for USA for profit medical system to collapse but I'm sure their greedy asses will get bailed out.   All cheers for profit health care system.  I'm just glad this virus finally puts to rest USA has best medical system.   That is bullshit and I've know it for over 20 years.  For profit health care can kiss my ass.

Did anyone truly believe the USA had the best medical system before the coronavirus? I thought it was considered as really bad by most people.



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TruckOSaurus said:
sethnintendo said:

Basically you either die or get better. Hospitals can barely do shit right now.  Just waiting for USA for profit medical system to collapse but I'm sure their greedy asses will get bailed out.   All cheers for profit health care system.  I'm just glad this virus finally puts to rest USA has best medical system.   That is bullshit and I've know it for over 20 years.  For profit health care can kiss my ass.

Did anyone truly believe the USA had the best medical system before the coronavirus? I thought it was considered as really bad by most people.

Some Americans that have decent medical coverage (which is little that don't have high deductible) considered our system as best (maybe only Fox News).   Fact is if you get sick in USA you are fucked.  You are a slave for medical system then with them garnishing wages and near impossible to declare bankruptcy.  USA is great country...  Just don't get sick.  Otherwise you are fucked.



Still, Dr. Cody says a surge in cases is coming, and that since a vaccine is still a long ways off, at some point everyone is likely to be infected.

"Yes, probably at some point," Dr. Cody replied when asked if she believes everyone will be infected. "What our shelter-in-place order does, though, is slow things down, so we spread the cases out over a long period of time, and so that we spread the number of people who are severely ill and require hospitalization over a long period of time as well."

Dr. Cody declined to give a timeline for when she anticipates life returning to normal, saying this is the "new normal" for the foreseeable future. She stopped short of saying school won't return in the Fall.

https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-dr-cody-santa-clara-county-bay-area-flatten-curve-testing/6081905/