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SvennoJ on 07 April 2020
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supermattia10 said:

The real problem of this delayed peak of active cases in Italy is especially caused by a slower hospital discharges.

If you compare Italy & Spain, Spain has more than 40K recovered cases, Italy has only 22K; maybe Italy is only keeping people that have had Covid more time in hospital than other nations, so is normal that the active cases continues to raise.

I see more relevant the trend of critical cases, and from 1st April this number is decreasing regularly, from 4200 to 3898; so I can say that we have already reached the peak of cases.

Yep, that's the more important peak anyway and declining the same as reported deaths are already declining. Both should start falling faster in a couple days. Deaths are on average 20 days delayed from onset of symptoms after an average incubation period of 5 days. So by now any new deaths are from after the growth peak, while my gut feeling (and critical case numbers falling) tells me that since the growth peak the percentage of mild case detection has been going up vs confirming those with heavy symptoms. 

The question for future outbreaks is, how long is suppression actually necessary and still effective. Do we need to keep going until fewer than a 100 cases a day are detected, or can some restrictions be lifted earlier while staying on top of detecting cases. It's the asymptomatic cases that will flare up the spread again, so as long as you can't trace and test all contacts with known cases, it's probably better to keep heavy social distancing in place. Will it come to a system where you need to get tested before getting cleared to go back to work?

JRPGfan said:
Athaba said:
Germany has 100.000+ cases, all confirmed, but the death rate is very low compared to other regions. Wonder what's the reason. Aren't they counting death outside hospitals?

They tested alot, so they found alot of those "asymptomatic" people, most other countries dont "catch" in the test numbers.

Ontop of that, the "earlier" on you know someone has the illness the "earlier" you can start treating them with stuff to help fight the virus.
Which is what I think germany is doing, so there are basically helping those "mild cases of symptoms" to a higher degree than other countries.
This means less of the "mild cases" turn into "serious cases" (and die).

Most other places in the world, we only test those we suspect to aleady have it, or are showing serious symptoms.

There is no treatment, you can't help mild cases to not turn into serious cases, hence hospitals just send people home to self quarantine until it (maybe) gets bad. It's indeed difference in amount of testing, efficiency in tracing contacts and difference in interaction between younger and older people. The avg reported deaths in Germany are not growing any differently from other countries, they are simply a lower percentage of total detected cases.

The reported deaths in Germany are growing in lock step with the Netherlands and Belgium, while their detected cases have been following France and Spain. Germany is currently outpacing The Netherlands and Belgium for reported deaths while their detected cases have fallen below UK level. Germany seems to have the biggest swings between weekend and mid week reporting for detected cases, these are Saturday to Monday averages.

As of April 5th, 3 day average growth
Spain +5825
France +5282
UK +4480
Italy +4240
Germany +4072
Turkey +3099
Belgium +1348
Netherlands +1027
Switzerland +684
Sweden +358
Denmark +308
Austria +258
Norway +165

3 day average reported deaths
France 801 (many corrections coming through from previously uncounted deaths outside hospitals)
Spain 714
Italy 614
UK 589
Germany 178
Belgium 163
Netherlands 127
Turkey 75
Switzerland 58
Sweden 40
Austria 17
Denmark 16
Norway 6