chubbyemu uploaded a video about the chloroquin phosphate poisoning in Arizona in which he also discusses a few of the chances and risks of using chloroquin as an anti-viral medicine aswell as some comments about the french study of the drug - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILowf7Tw7QY

All right, let's just take a look at this one quote in the "fuller" context you've provided:

It was not a possibility on Feb. 28 (or long before) that the disease could "maybe go away" or disappear "like a miracle." That he paid an acknowledgement to the idea that "it could get worse before it gets better" doesn't take away from the utter stupidity of that full quote.

"Nobody really knows" whether the situation would, at that point, get worse -- or maybe just go away? Not true. Plenty of people knew. Scientists knew and specialists knew, and doubtless people advising Trump knew. If Trump didn't know, then he's just about the dumbest person on the planet. Or the most disingenuous. Or both.

If he had known better, instead of pretending like things might just solve themselves, then maybe he could have pushed for a stronger and more effective response. In fact, he could have done so for a month or more, by that point. Maybe certain outcomes were unavoidable from the start -- "nobody really knows" -- but it's also completely possible that with a more coherent and urgent response to this situation (not to mention better preparation in previous days, weeks, month and years), that the US economy would not be suffering nearly so much and that far fewer people would be dying in this country from this disease.

Donald Trump is an awful human being. He has been a predictably awful President. But even if those things are in doubt in your mind, or anyone else's, he has absolutely dropped the ball in this crisis. Contra your intention, the fuller the context -- the more we understand about his inaction and many blunders -- the worse Trump appears.

Is that data complete, is what we have even accurate? Simple yes or no question by the way since you seem to have ignored my third sentence.  Ever hear the phrase garbage in garbage out?

Also you do realize it wasn't you I originally quoted don't you? You just jumped on... but since you did ...

Edit: Just so you know I happen to like your Italy/US comparison.  I know others don't (and they have a point) but I still find it interesting.  Your "data" is inaccurate and therefore not fact, but IT IS THE BEST WE HAVE TO WORK WITH. I spend more time in this thread than i do looking at Covid-19 news.  Why because there are a bunch of intelligent fuckers in the thread yourself included.  It's numbers and almost all of us here like numbers more than the average bear.  I think we should keep the politics out of this thread. I don't care for Trump but we are talking two months later and hindsight is nearly always 20/20.  We also don't know what all factors he was trying to balance in his handling of the situation so we shouldn't go throwing stones in glass vaginas or something like that.  Also thank you for the time you put into gathering data and your analysis, I'm one of I'm sure several that appreciate it.

Balls you got your reply off before I got my edit off.  See my edit.  You are correct i don't recall Permalite speculating in THIS thread.  I didn't quote him for the purpose of this thread though.

New cases per day I would personally guess to be woefully inaccurate. 

Edit so you weren't ever speculating?

In lieu of the full transcript, look at the quote you've already provided:

"It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle, it will disappear. And from our shores, you know, it could get worse before it gets better. Could maybe go away. We'll see what happens. Nobody really knows."

He says it "could get worse before it gets better." That's one scenario that "could" happen. To contrast it, he then says it "could maybe go away." That's the context for what he means by it going away: as opposed to things getting worse before they get better. He's saying that things might not get worse at all. That the disease might just go away. That's the thing he's saying that "nobody really knows" -- whether things would get worse, or the disease would just go away.

That's what he's saying, clearly. It's how our language works. If I say, "I could have McDonald's for lunch. Could have Taco Bell," I mean those are my two contrasting options for lunch. Not that I might have Taco Bell months from now, when the seasons change. It's also consistent with the message he'd put out several times, that the US only had a few cases; that those infected would soon be better; that we had the situation under control. So if you want a "fuller context," look at Trump's remarks from the weeks leading up to this point. It makes clear that he was pushing an idea that things weren't bad, that things weren't going to get bad, that things were basically okay.

That message was wrong and obviously wrong, from the very beginning. At this late point, it was something more and worse than simply incorrect.

This weekend seemed to have had an even bigger effect on the numbers, downwards.

Comparing Tuesday to Saturday growth rate with Thursday to Monday growth rate:
World average shrunk by 15.5%, Europe by 11.7% and USA by 11.4% while week over week the growth rate at most shrinks 2.8% in Italy.

I guess now we can expect upwards ticks again when stuff missed in the weekend will show up. Europe did have that uptick from France adding old (previously missing) numbers (increasing the week average) while in the US the reported cases dropped a lot (decreasing the weekend average more). All the inconsistent tests later and the USA fell a bit further behind Europe, from closing in to 8.2 days, back up a bit to 8.7 days behind Europe's total case count. For reported deaths the USA is still 12 days behind Europe. In Europe the daily reported deaths do seem to be stabilizing while in the US they're still steadily increasing.


Italy continues decreasing but it's clear it takes a long time for things to dwindle back down.

Italy went on lockdown on March 9th when their daily average growth was 1420 new cases daily and on average about 130 reported deaths daily.
Italy's growth peaked on March 21st (12 days later) with over 6,500 new cases that day.
The costliest day was March 27th (18 days later) with over 900 deaths reported.
Compared to China's trajectory the active cases should have peaked on April 3rd.
For April 5th (27 days later) the avg growth was still 4240 new cases daily and 614 daily reported deaths, active cases are still going up.

It has almost been a month since lock down, a nearly 2 month suppression period indeed seems necessary. The healthcare workers must be exhausted in Italy. Italy is shedding about 2.5% of it's new reports daily, or each following day has 97.5% of the previous day. The reported deaths are falling faster, 4% per day on average. Reported cases might be slower to come down since there are still plenty older mild cases to detect. However at some point the numbers should start dropping faster. In China that happened 32 days after lock down, 4 more days for Italy.

Germany has 100.000+ cases, all confirmed, but the death rate is very low compared to other regions. Wonder what's the reason. Aren't they counting death outside hospitals?

My guess is they have a good healthcare system and not many old folks caught the virus.

The real problem of this delayed peak of active cases in Italy is especially caused by a slower hospital discharges.

If you compare Italy & Spain, Spain has more than 40K recovered cases, Italy has only 22K; maybe Italy is only keeping people that have had Covid more time in hospital than other nations, so is normal that the active cases continues to raise.

I see more relevant the trend of critical cases, and from 1st April this number is decreasing regularly, from 4200 to 3898; so I can say that we have already reached the peak of cases.

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