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SvennoJ on 07 April 2020
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This weekend seemed to have had an even bigger effect on the numbers, downwards.

Comparing Tuesday to Saturday growth rate with Thursday to Monday growth rate:
World average shrunk by 15.5%, Europe by 11.7% and USA by 11.4% while week over week the growth rate at most shrinks 2.8% in Italy.

I guess now we can expect upwards ticks again when stuff missed in the weekend will show up. Europe did have that uptick from France adding old (previously missing) numbers (increasing the week average) while in the US the reported cases dropped a lot (decreasing the weekend average more). All the inconsistent tests later and the USA fell a bit further behind Europe, from closing in to 8.2 days, back up a bit to 8.7 days behind Europe's total case count. For reported deaths the USA is still 12 days behind Europe. In Europe the daily reported deaths do seem to be stabilizing while in the US they're still steadily increasing.


Italy continues decreasing but it's clear it takes a long time for things to dwindle back down.

Italy went on lockdown on March 9th when their daily average growth was 1420 new cases daily and on average about 130 reported deaths daily.
Italy's growth peaked on March 21st (12 days later) with over 6,500 new cases that day.
The costliest day was March 27th (18 days later) with over 900 deaths reported.
Compared to China's trajectory the active cases should have peaked on April 3rd.
For April 5th (27 days later) the avg growth was still 4240 new cases daily and 614 daily reported deaths, active cases are still going up.

It has almost been a month since lock down, a nearly 2 month suppression period indeed seems necessary. The healthcare workers must be exhausted in Italy. Italy is shedding about 2.5% of it's new reports daily, or each following day has 97.5% of the previous day. The reported deaths are falling faster, 4% per day on average. Reported cases might be slower to come down since there are still plenty older mild cases to detect. However at some point the numbers should start dropping faster. In China that happened 32 days after lock down, 4 more days for Italy.