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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 11 January 2020

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

25 million for Switch in one year seems a bit far-fetched to me.

I'm gonna go with 20-21 million, though at this point it's hard to say. Animal Crossing will get them off to strong start, but whether they can maintain that momentum remains to be seen.

I agree here. Animal Crossing and Switch Lite will likely mean sales up 15-25% through the first half of 2020. 

Yeah, the problem comes once we reach the second half, which was stacked with games last year and culminated in the system's first core Pokemon. 2020 will have its work cut out for it matching that.



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trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah, the problem comes once we reach the second half, which was stacked with games last year and culminated in the system's first core Pokemon. 2020 will have its work cut out for it matching that.

A small price cut ($179 Switch Lite and $249 standard Switch) will help offset the lack of a core Pokemon game, as well as BotW2 or new 3D Mario game. I'd like Mario Kart 9, but I don't see that happening until Nintendo's next console. 

Yeah i don't expect Mario Kart 9 until Switch 2 either.

I don't expect a price cut though, Nintendo seem really stubbornly committed to maintaining price. I also think BOTW2 will be next year, as mainline Zelda games are always delayed.



trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah i don't expect Mario Kart 9 until Switch 2 either.

I don't expect a price cut though, Nintendo seem really stubbornly committed to maintaining price. I also think BOTW2 will be next year, as mainline Zelda games are always delayed.

If not BotW2 than what? Nintendo will need some big game to keep sales up. 

Indeed they will, and I really hope that game is BOTW2, but the team's long history of delaying games leaves me with little confidence they can deliver this year. As to what their big games will be, Nintendo's silence on the matter is becoming extremely annoying.



SpokenTruth said:
curl-6 said:

Indeed they will, and I really hope that game is BOTW2, but the team's long history of delaying games leaves me with little confidence they can deliver this year. As to what their big games will be, Nintendo's silence on the matter is becoming extremely annoying.

I don't think we have as much to worry regarding a delay in a squeal such as this.  They aren't tied to a console launch, it's not multiplatform and there won't be drastic changes to gameplay or mechanics.   A lot of the typical reasons for a big game launch do not seem to be at play here.  Further, there is pressure for a big holiday title.  

I certainly hope you're right. I'd love to be able to play BOTW2 this year.



Well, the holiday title would be tricky to guess.
BOTW2 or odyssey 2?
switch sports?
Nintendogs switch?
Pokemon sword/shield definitive(60$ with the 2 dlc included)?
zelpa TP/WW?
none wouldnt move as many consoles as pokemon did this 2019.



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trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Indeed they will, and I really hope that game is BOTW2, but the team's long history of delaying games leaves me with little confidence they can deliver this year. As to what their big games will be, Nintendo's silence on the matter is becoming extremely annoying.

I understand not announcing a game YEARS in advance after BotW or well pretty much any Square Enix game being announced years and years before they finally launch. But I wouldn't mind announcing a game a year and a half before they come out. Ie. announce game at E3 2020 that will launch in holiday 2021.

Yeah it's driving me absolutely crazy atm that we know nothing about Switch's lineup passed March 20th as far as significant games go. I hate it when Nintendo do this, I need something concrete to look forward to.



SpokenTruth said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah it's driving me absolutely crazy atm that we know nothing about Switch's lineup passed March 20th as far as significant games go. I hate it when Nintendo do this, I need something concrete to look forward to.

Relax.  They won't leave it empty and have plenty of time to announce.  Do you really plan out your holiday game play list this far out anyway?

Not the holidays, but I'd like to know what I can expect to look forward to in April, May, June, July, August...

I'd mean so much for me atm to have a solid date for a game I'm excited for, to make the future not feel so dark.



SpokenTruth said:
curl-6 said:

Not the holidays, but I'd like to know what I can expect to look forward to in April, May, June, July, August...

I'd mean so much for me atm to have a solid date for a game I'm excited for, to make the future not feel so dark.

We'll almost certainly get something from the Investor Relations Briefing later this month.  Either just announcements or a Direct.  Feb is also known for having a few directs.  Same with May.  And of course E3.

I really hope so. While my recent good news has helped a lot, having cancer is still scary and makes the future feel so uncertain. Games are like my escape, my antidote to stress and anxiety, so a release date would give me a point in the future to look to with positivity instead of with dread. Anyway, sorry to get all angsty.



curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

I agree here. Animal Crossing and Switch Lite will likely mean sales up 15-25% through the first half of 2020. 

Yeah, the problem comes once we reach the second half, which was stacked with games last year and culminated in the system's first core Pokemon. 2020 will have its work cut out for it matching that.

I meaannn, i kinda too was seeing 2020 being just a little bit up compared to 2019 but seeing how strong the momentum is already with 0 game and having the first full year of the Lite effect + Animal crossing bringing a new audience that the Switch didn't really dabble into much yet is going to be really strong. The Pokemon momentum will continue in 2020 as well since we have major DLC coming which will keep the game in the press the whole year. 

We will definitely see a price cut or a bundled game for 300$ this year with more aggressive deal, there is no way they won't lower the price at this point since yes they could still sell the console but the production cost probably is way lower now. So many people are just waiting for this cut tbh it would have a huge impact. And imo, the lineup this year looks already stronger for the first few months and i'm sure they have big titles for the end of the year. 

Depends on the price cut, the new model and the lineup but 21 million is the floor imo, i'm expecting 23 millions. There is multiple weeks the Switch can catch a big lead over last year and it will do great in the holidays no matter what.



xMetroid said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah, the problem comes once we reach the second half, which was stacked with games last year and culminated in the system's first core Pokemon. 2020 will have its work cut out for it matching that.

I meaannn, i kinda too was seeing 2020 being just a little bit up compared to 2019 but seeing how strong the momentum is already with 0 game and having the first full year of the Lite effect + Animal crossing bringing a new audience that the Switch didn't really dabble into much yet is going to be really strong. The Pokemon momentum will continue in 2020 as well since we have major DLC coming which will keep the game in the press the whole year. 

We will definitely see a price cut or a bundled game for 300$ this year with more aggressive deal, there is no way they won't lower the price at this point since yes they could still sell the console but the production cost probably is way lower now. So many people are just waiting for this cut tbh it would have a huge impact. And imo, the lineup this year looks already stronger for the first few months and i'm sure they have big titles for the end of the year. 

Depends on the price cut, the new model and the lineup but 21 million is the floor imo, i'm expecting 23 millions. There is multiple weeks the Switch can catch a big lead over last year and it will do great in the holidays no matter what.

I get the feeling Nintendo are gonna want to hang on to the $300 price point for as long as they can, didn't they say as much in a recent press thingie, or am I misremembering? Something about "increasing value in other ways" or something.