Amazing how after everything, you just say "it has a very good chance of being up yoy". There isn't a single sales trend pointing to switch being down yoy.
Obviously, the Switch is trending noticeably upwards, and that was going to be the case for the 1st half of the year. But the big question mark is the 2nd half. From July to December 2019, we got the following:
July: Fire Emblem: Three Houses
August: Astral Chain
September: Switch Lite + Link's Awakening + Dragon Quest XI S
October: Luigi's Mansion 3
November: Pokemon Sword/Shield
December: Usual Holiday Boost.
That's a damn strong lineup and combination that led to the Switch having the great 2nd half and monstrous holiday season that it had. So, what does Nintendo have up their sleeve this year to match that? We still don't know any major games they have planned this year beyond Animal Crossing. I'm sure there's at least 1-2 more, but will they have the same effect as Sword/Shield + Fire Emblem + 2D Zelda AND a new hardware revision? If the answer is no, then the lead the Switch builds in the 1st half of 2020 may not be strong enough to withstand the deficit it could accumulate in the 2nd half due to a weaker lineup.
Just to add on this, the early weeks don't have to mean very much. Case in point: Wii 2010.
The Wii sold January through April as if the console would do yet another 20M+ year. Then, the sales started to break away, and by October, it was only doing 150k weekly anymore, half of what it pulled just half a year earlier. It still did well with 17M that year, but the writing was also already on the wall that the console was declining, and fast.
Of course, there's no reason for the Switch to drop like that this year. Just saying that you can't make a trend for the entire year just based on the first couple weeks.
Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 24 January 2020