Switch could easily do 33 million or more with a price cut or pokemon snap bundle as holiday deals .
A price cut at a time when the system is more popular than its ever been and selling more units than it ever has AND they're scrapping desperately to make enough supply to keep up with demand is an absolutely terrible idea that makes no sense whatsoever from a business and profit standpoint.
Pokemon Snap isn't exactly what I'd call a killer app. A holiday bundle? If they wanted to do a Pokemon bundle, wouldn't make more sense to do a Sword/Shield bundle with the Expansion pass content included? Chances are they'll do the Mario Kart bundle again and maybe an Animal Crossing bundle for the Switch Lite.
Well, let's not forget that the Switch combo is actually covering two different markets; the Nintendo console crowd and the Nintendo handheld crowd, so if Wii and DS were able to sell 20m each in the same year, then it is not out the realm of possibility for the Switch to reach 30m in a year.
The Nintendo console crowd isn't is big as you think it is. It went from 61 million (NES) to 49 million (SNES) to 33 million (N64) to 21 million (GCN) to a dismal 13.5 million (Wii U). The Wii, (And to a lesser degree, the DS) was an outlier where they had the perfect strategy and caught lightening in a bottle with the Blue Ocean, casual crowd. A crowd that quickly abandoned them once smartphone/mobile gaming exploded. An explosion that came at the expense of the handheld gaming market. Not only has Nintendo's handheld crowd evaporated drastically, so has the overall handheld gaming audience. We went from 154 million DS units (235 million DS/PSP units) to just 76 million 3DS units (92 million 3DS/PSV units).
Really, Nintendo's console and handheld crowd, or what's left of it from 7th gen, is more or less the combined install base of the 3DS and Wii U, which doesn't even crack 90 million. And if combined the 3DS' peak year (13.95 million units shipped in FY 2013) and the Wii U's peak year (3.37 million units shipped in FY 2015), that wouldn't even add up to 18 million. (Just 17.32 million combined units). It'll take A LOT more than just Nintendo's console and handheld crowds to come close to sniffing 30 million.
As for your statement that I bolded. Again, that was the Wii, and to a lesser degree, the DS, selling to an extremely casual segment of the overall gaming audience that wasn't going to be held over for long, and it came back to bite them in the ass when mobile gaming took off and that very same audience left them for dead with the 3DS and Wii U.
Granted, even if some of that audience has started to come back due to the pandemic, how many of them can we really expect there to be? The audience is just not there the way they used to be.
Not easily, maybe all that could push it to such level but i don't expect a price cut this year since they can barely produce enough of it to meet demand. Also the fact they are looking into making it's lifecycle longer than usual Nintendo consoles, i think a price cut in a time where it's momentum is peaking is not a good move.
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PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020