| Dante9 said: We are talking about systems that are 6 years old at this point and are about to take a gen leap next year, nothing is more conducive to their dwindling sales than that. |
Exactly
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
| DonFerrari said: @colafite Man you are just wrong. PS4 had its best year when Switch released. The sales curve and peak of PS4 are very much what was expected. Each market have a slight different sales curve and peak point. It was expected that one point PS3+X360 would close the lead from PS4 and X1, because X1 started much stronger than X360 but after couple years it got a lot weaker and we had plenty of sure that Kinect would make X360 get ahead of X1 at one time (and as show to you it was more in USA). Also Wii declined due to itself and Nintendo moving to WiiU SW development, had nothing to do with PS3, X360 or even Kinect. You have been show the graphics, you are just being stubborn. Fun note PS3 could have outsold X360 in USA if it didn't had Kinect, |
And what if PS4 had its peak year when Switch launched? You can not affect an adversary if you're not selling at your best. When did i said that PS4 was affected just from the start by Switch??. I started saying that the effect has been mostly noted since last year through all 2019 just when Switch have exploded in sales in USA.
And i repeat, forget about Wii. What i meant to say with Wii in that comment was that when Wii disappeared for whatever the reasons there was a clear path to get more buyers into the system and X360 was the one who benefited the most. One less rival..., more sales, because they in fact, affect each other sales. If Kinect would've launched in 2008 instead of 2010 would've happened 2 things. A) Wii wouldn't have sold that much or B) Kinect wouldn't have been such a success. They would've compited against each other.
And you give me the reason then if you say PS3 could have outsold x360 in USA if it wasn't for Kinect. I don't understand why people are not taking into account that Kinect serves its purpose as a success for X360 as Breath of the Wild or Super Mario Odyssey did for Switch, or Fortite did for PS4/XBO. People want the most hottest item, during 2007-2009 was Wii, during 2010-2012 was Kinect, during 2013-2016 was next gen console combo (PS4 and XBO sold really similar to each other in USA during those years) and since 2017 Switch has been the candy.
Nobody can know for sure if PS4+XBO could have sold even more in 2018 and 2019 if Switch didn't existed. Like i said early, is just a hunch, an intuition. I have no proof for that. We'll just need to wait and see if by 2021 Switch "casually" stops to dominate US sales....
Edit: Another point to my argument is that Sony itself expected 16M shipped for this FY and they had to lower it to 13'5M, because sales were not going as high as they expected...
zorg1000 said:
Your numbers arent adding up either. The 2015-2018 numbers you posted add up to 2.27 million and they reported 134k for the 2013 launch putting it to ~2.4 million The 3.3 million figure is from end of March 2019 so that would mean 2014+Q1 2019 would be about 900k which would make 2014 the peak year anyway. My personal theory is that the Spain numbers in the link I posted also include Portugal, similar to how Northern Europe & Benelux were blocked together. |
Maybe you're right in the fact that maybe the graph was showing Iberian numbers instead of only Spanish numbers. But one question, where did you get that 3'3M figure is from March 2019?. The article did not say anything about it and it was made in October 2019.
And besides, that graph is still showing 740k in 2014 and 910k in 2015. Even if its Spain and Portugal combined, that's too much and then numbers from 2016-2018 are too low if Portugal is included too, because Spain is a bigger market for PS than Italy, and Italy is shown being around 600k during those years. I'm still not convinced about those numbers.
Please look what Zhuge says just below that graph...
"The US and Japan numbers are correct since it's based on NPD and Media Create/Famitsu data. The European country numbers are based on GfK data, but some seem to be upweighted / slightly different to what GfK reports."
It seems European numbers as a whole are not that trustworthy...
Anyway, i made my point and i think i already derailed the thread just enough. I just wanted to explain why i said what i said i already did it.
Last edited by colafitte - on 02 December 2019
colafitte said:
And what if PS4 had its peak year when Switch launched? You can not affect an adversary if you're not selling at your best. When did i said that PS4 was affected just from the start by Switch??. I started saying that the effect has been mostly noted since last year through all 2019 just when Switch have exploded in sales in USA. And i repeat, forget about Wii. What i meant to say with Wii in that comment was that when Wii disappeared for whatever the reasons there was a clear path to get more buyers into the system and X360 was the one who benefited the most. One less rival..., more sales, because they in fact, affect each other sales. If Kinect would've launched in 2008 instead of 2010 would've happened 2 things. A) Wii wouldn't have sold that much or B) Kinect wouldn't have been such a success. They would've compited against each other. And you give me the reason then if you say PS3 could have outsold x360 in USA if it wasn't for Kinect. I don't understand why people are not taking into account that Kinect serves its purpose as a success for X360 as Breath of the Wild or Super Mario Odyssey did for Switch, or Fortite did for PS4/XBO. People want the most hottest item, during 2007-2009 was Wii, during 2010-2012 was Kinect, during 2013-2016 was next gen console combo (PS4 and XBO sold really similar to each other in USA during those years) and since 2017 Switch has been the candy. Nobody can know for sure if PS4+XBO could have sold even more in 2017 and 2018 if Switch didn't existed. Like i said early, is just a hunch, an intuition. I have no proof for that. We'll just need to wait and see if by 2021 Switch "casually" stops to dominate US sales....
Maybe you're right in the fact that maybe the graph was showing Iberian numbers instead of only Spanish numbers. But one question, where did you get that 3'3M figure is from March 2019?. The article did not say anything about it and it was made in October 2019. And besides, that graph is still showing 740k in 2014 and 910k in 2015. Even if its Spain and Portugal combined, that's too much and then numbers from 2016-2018 are too low if Portugal is included too, because Spain is a bigger market for PS than Italy, and Italy is shown being around 600k during those years. I'm still not convinced about those numbers. Please look what Zhuge says just below that graph... "The US and Japan numbers are correct since it's based on NPD and Media Create/Famitsu data. The European country numbers are based on GfK data, but some seem to be upweighted / slightly different to what GfK reports." It seems European numbers as a whole are not that trustworthy... |
Sorry I'm used to the US way of writing dates, so I thought it was from April.
And Spain is still a bigger market than Italy, they just have different sales curves
2013-2015 PS4 sales
Spain-1.80m
Italy-1.17m
2016-2018 PS4 sales
Spain-1.80m
Italy-1.80m
Spain started out stronger with over 50% more sales through 2015 while Italy was a little slower to adopt and has it's best year when Spain had already begun to decline.
Besides, looking at only one console when talking about regions strengths isnt the best metric.
All consoles
Spain
2016-1.01m
2017-1.22m
2018-1.16m
Italy
2016-0.95m
2017-1.01m
2018-1.04m
Spain is still consistently selling more than Italy on a yearly basis.
"Some seem to be slightly different"
Even if they are off, its only be by a little bit and they are good reference points.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
Benji has only GameStop numbers, and such bundles always sell more on Gamestop than at mainstream retailers and Gamestop hardware sales numbers are rather irrelevant.
So I would not expect real big numbers for the bundle, to sell more than last few month is not not very remarkable in a holiday period. The sales of PS4 has been relatively low in 2019 anway.
colafitte said:
And what if PS4 had its peak year when Switch launched? You can not affect an adversary if you're not selling at your best. When did i said that PS4 was affected just from the start by Switch??. I started saying that the effect has been mostly noted since last year through all 2019 just when Switch have exploded in sales in USA. For something to not making an effect to suddenly making an effect should show some difference to justify it. There wasn't any. You are just looking at the calendar and supposing that it is affecting, but after a peak there will be a downward. PS4 is in down motion, Switch is in up, just their normal selling curves. There is nothing to suggest Switch is making a significant impact on the sales of PS4 or X1. And i repeat, forget about Wii. What i meant to say with Wii in that comment was that when Wii disappeared for whatever the reasons there was a clear path to get more buyers into the system and X360 was the one who benefited the most. One less rival..., more sales, because they in fact, affect each other sales. If Kinect would've launched in 2008 instead of 2010 would've happened 2 things. A) Wii wouldn't have sold that much or B) Kinect wouldn't have been such a success. They would've compited against each other. That is where you are wrong. Wii leaving the market wouldn't change for PS3 or X360. What changed was kinect being successful. And that didn't affect Wii nor was effected by Wii. And you give me the reason then if you say PS3 could have outsold x360 in USA if it wasn't for Kinect. I don't understand why people are not taking into account that Kinect serves its purpose as a success for X360 as Breath of the Wild or Super Mario Odyssey did for Switch, or Fortite did for PS4/XBO. People want the most hottest item, during 2007-2009 was Wii, during 2010-2012 was Kinect, during 2013-2016 was next gen console combo (PS4 and XBO sold really similar to each other in USA during those years) and since 2017 Switch has been the candy. Just because you are still confusing arguments and markets. If X360 didn't had Kinect the sales curve would be quite different and that would make it not outsell PS3. Neither Zelda nor Mario did rob customers from PS4 (again when both launched PS4 was selling great). Nobody can know for sure if PS4+XBO could have sold even more in 2018 and 2019 if Switch didn't existed. Like i said early, is just a hunch, an intuition. I have no proof for that. We'll just need to wait and see if by 2021 Switch "casually" stops to dominate US sales.... We just know. That is the reality of the market and sales curve all around. Your "hunch" is just trying to correlate two occurrences because they occurred at same timeframe. Edit: Another point to my argument is that Sony itself expected 16M shipped for this FY and they had to lower it to 13'5M, because sales were not going as high as they expected... Because they didn't want to cut the price. And a 16M shipment in the 6th year is quite high. Just look that the 13.5M is still higher than basically any year of PS3, and if Kinect didn't rob PS3 customers to X360 (it brought new customers to the market just as did Wii, people that wouldn't buy PS3 if it didn't exist) when they were running for the same customer until Kinect it won't be Switch that will make that big of a impact and just 3 years after the launch.
Maybe you're right in the fact that maybe the graph was showing Iberian numbers instead of only Spanish numbers. But one question, where did you get that 3'3M figure is from March 2019?. The article did not say anything about it and it was made in October 2019. And besides, that graph is still showing 740k in 2014 and 910k in 2015. Even if its Spain and Portugal combined, that's too much and then numbers from 2016-2018 are too low if Portugal is included too, because Spain is a bigger market for PS than Italy, and Italy is shown being around 600k during those years. I'm still not convinced about those numbers. Please look what Zhuge says just below that graph... "The US and Japan numbers are correct since it's based on NPD and Media Create/Famitsu data. The European country numbers are based on GfK data, but some seem to be upweighted / slightly different to what GfK reports." It seems European numbers as a whole are not that trustworthy... Anyway, i made my point and i think i already derailed the thread just enough. I just wanted to explain why i said what i said i already did it. |
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994
Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."
| z101 said: Benji has only GameStop numbers, and such bundles always sell more on Gamestop than at mainstream retailers and Gamestop hardware sales numbers are rather irrelevant. |
Sales should still be pretty strong though, down from last year by a considerable margin but still good all things considered.
Going by the winning predictions on Resetera, it looks like PS4 sold ~550k from Aug-Oct and I have to assume BF week makes up at least 50% of Nov sales so if I had to guess I would say it sold ~1 million for Nov NPD give or take 10%.
My prediction for all 3
XBO-850k
PS4-950k
NSW-1550k
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
Sales should still be pretty strong though, down from last year by a considerable margin but still good all things considered. Going by the winning predictions on Resetera, it looks like PS4 sold ~550k from Aug-Oct and I have to assume BF week makes up at least 50% of Nov sales so if I had to guess I would say it sold ~1 million for Nov NPD give or take 10%. My prediction for all 3 XBO-850k PS4-950k NSW-1550k |
That would be quite strong for X1 considering how hard the year have been.
duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363
Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994
Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."
DonFerrari said:
That would be quite strong for X1 considering how hard the year have been. |
Not really, based on leaks & #1 predictions on Era, it was down ~35% YoY from Jan-Oct.
850k is a ~37% decline from last Nov so in line with the rest of the year.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
Sales should still be pretty strong though, down from last year by a considerable margin but still good all things considered. Going by the winning predictions on Resetera, it looks like PS4 sold ~550k from Aug-Oct and I have to assume BF week makes up at least 50% of Nov sales so if I had to guess I would say it sold ~1 million for Nov NPD give or take 10%. My prediction for all 3 XBO-850k *700k PS4-950k NSW-1550k |
Im not sure Xbox goes that high in november....
Something like that will probably be pretty close imo.
JRPGfan said:
Im not sure Xbox goes that high in november.... |
Like I said to Don, through Oct it was down ~35% YoY so that's in line with the rest of the year. You need to remember it went all the way down to $150 with 3 games on BF week.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
About Us |
Terms of Use |
Privacy Policy |
Advertise |
Staff |
Contact
Display As Desktop
Display As Mobile
© 2006-2024 VGChartz Ltd. All rights reserved.
