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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD: PS4 2016 vs Switch 2019

 

How much more will Switch sell compared to PS4?

Switch will not outsell PS4 7 15.56%
 
500k-1 million 2 4.44%
 
1 million-1.5 million 12 26.67%
 
1.5 million-2 million 6 13.33%
 
2 million-2.5 million 5 11.11%
 
2.5 million-3 million 5 11.11%
 
Over 3 million 8 17.78%
 
Total:45
The_Liquid_Laser on 05 July 2019

Switch ahead of PS4 so far. However PS4 had a pretty good software lineup for the first 5 months of 2016. Switch hasn't really had anything special yet this year (except Mario Maker 2 which just released a few days ago). If Switch is selling this well with no special releases so far this year, then imagine how well it will sell for the remainder of the year.

Switch is about to have a very solid second half of the year in regards to software. It's already outpacing PS4. It's about to shoot far ahead. These numbers are very telling. PS4 is a very strong selling system, but the Switch is about to shoot far ahead.



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Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
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JRPGfan on 05 July 2019

Back in 2016,.... the US was still fully behinde the xbox, and it was giveing competition to the PS4.

Remember back in 2015-2016?
"The power of the cloud"
"DX12 gives a power boost advantage"

Back then Xbox Fans still believed in getting Scalebound + Fable.

(fable was cancelled + studio closed, mid way through 2016)
(offical word on Scalebound, was first in early 2017)

Basically americans bought way too many xbox's :p

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 05 July 2019

Barkley on 05 July 2019

Switch will win in the US, probably lifetime. It'll obviously win in Japan too, it's the European sales that are going to let it down and hold it back from winning globally.

PS4 may have a chance to win NPD years for 2019 vs 2022, 2020 vs 2023 with it's sale spread over a longer period. Relatively switch will be more front loaded I think, like most Nintendo consoles. But this and the next 2 years NPD should be in the bag for Switch.


JRPGfan said:

Back in 2016,.... the US was still fully behinde the xbox, and it was giveing competition to the PS4.

It didn't change after 2016. In fact 2017 while selling 0.2m more in USA was actually worse considering how strong global sales were in 2017. The xbox competition in USA never really stopped

2016 - 29.1% of PS4 Sales in USA
2017 - 26.5% of PS4 Sales in USA
2018 - 29.4% of PS4 Sales in USA

In 2018 PS4 sold 5.28m while XBO sold 4.31m, It's not a massive gap. PS4/XBO cannibalise each others sales and while in most regions it's PS4 crushing the XBO in the USA they are both reasonably close and limiting each others sales.

Last edited by Barkley - on 05 July 2019

psychicscubadiver on 05 July 2019
Azantix said:
Huh, maybe Switch is on pace to beat PS4 lifetime? Maybe? I'm not sure, I'm not exactly the best at predicting stuff like this hehe

In the US and Japan definitely, but PS dominates Europe and RoW so much that I figure they've got a solid chance of winning anyway.



DonFerrari on 05 July 2019

In USA PS4 had X1 competing fiercely for sales. WW would be a harder battle.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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Barkley on 05 July 2019
DonFerrari said:
In USA PS4 had X1 competing fiercely for sales. WW would be a harder battle.

Switch is at 5,778,903 WW for 2019 and PS4 was at 5,246,935 WW for 2016. Switch is winning NPD by 9.7% so far, and WW by 10.1% so actually in WW comparison it's doing slightly better. 

PS4 sold 17.5m in 2016 and Switch will sell 19.5-20m this year. It's the legs of the PS4 that are going to be the killer.



Bofferbrauer2 on 05 July 2019
Shadow1980 said:

Here's a chart:

Chart says Switch vs. 3DS in the heather ^^



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

DonFerrari on 05 July 2019
Barkley said:
DonFerrari said:
In USA PS4 had X1 competing fiercely for sales. WW would be a harder battle.

Switch is at 5,778,903 WW for 2019 and PS4 was at 5,246,935 WW for 2016. Switch is winning NPD by 9.7% so far, and WW by 10.1% so actually in WW comparison it's doing slightly better. 

PS4 sold 17.5m in 2016 and Switch will sell 19.5-20m this year. It's the legs of the PS4 that are going to be the killer.

Yes, the legs, but WW. USA only I expect Switch to end in front. Because considering USA PS4 vs X1 is like 55-45 while WW it would be more like 70-30. So Switch will have an easier time finishing ahead of PS4 in USA than WW.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

MasonADC on 05 July 2019

Wow, the switch might end the year with around 6.5 million



Asriel on 05 July 2019

Thanks for putting this together.

Switch has a pretty steady slate of software coming now - Marvel and Fire Emblem in July, Astral Chain in August, Daemon x Machina, Zelda and Dragon Quest in September, Pokemon and Mario & Sonic in November, plus Luigi's Mansion 3 in either October or December, plus multi-platform games and ports. Add in the pretty much inevitable Mini hardware revision and its accompanying lower price point, and Switch will definitely come out on top in this comparison.