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Forums - Sales Discussion - March NPD 2019 thread

jason1637 said:

Yeah im interested in seeing how consoles uaully sell on their 6th year. @Shadow1980 If you have any numbers/graphics regarding 6th year sales for previous generation that would be appreciated.

We gotta implement a "Summon Shadow1980"-button.



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Nuvendil said:
Pionner said:
Will all due respect, benji has to be the biggest baby ever. Just because someone is offering a different perspective on sales doesn't make that a console war post. Every single month we were all told "everybody is doing well" when PS4 was first in sales. Now all of a sudden everybody is NOT doing well when Switch is first? SilverX provided a very good summary on why PS4's sales are actually great. Even Xbox 1. Benji and other posters disagreed. That bullshit "everybody is doing well" thread meme doesn't apply anymore it looks like. The only fanboys in that thread are the people bothered by that post. And as usual benji tactic, he mentions wanting a self ban but never actual goes trough with it. It's similar to somebody crying to get attention and make people feel sorry for them.

Everyone was doing well when PS4 and Xbone weren't down 30%.  Which is what Benji explained.  And there were plenty of months the last two years when Switch  was leading the pack that all three were said to be doing well.  I do think it was presumptuous for him to respond to a post he cannot see since he has that guy set to ignore, but that post was pretty strong spin.  While he is right that Sony is being conservative with pushing PS4, they've been that way for a while now unless a big release is coming out.  And MS going firesale and bundle crazy has been a constant since 2014.  So while the factors he stated were true, they have been true since before the decline this year.  And thus framing those things like new factors that relate specifically to this period is disingenuous.  These declines aren't disastrous, but they are normal.  Great would be a defying of expectations.

Oh and Xbox One sales are objectively not great.  They weren't great very often before, they really aren't great now.

Now let's not further derail the thread with antagonizing people who are not registered here and cannot defend themselves.  That tends to get toxic fast.

That's the point though. These declines are expected and we kept hearing beforehand how PS4 and Xbox 1 are in for a big decline in 2019. Yet here we are where a console at full price still manages to pull 250K in March after 6 years. Despite being down.  SilverX post wasn't spin, it was looking at sales comparatively from what it could have been, the PS4 price, and how long it's been on the market.

The "everybody is doing well" was always used anytime PS4 came first and people looked at Switch or Xbox 1 sales negatively. People made post on why Switch sales are still good. Now somebody does it for a different console it's spin? A console war post? Nope.



Formerly ilovegirls69  :(

Pionner said:
MasonADC said:

Pa4 had a pretty size able decrease yoy, which means different things to different people. I would never say that that is a great performance.  

PS4 has been at full MSRP. We all know Sony hasn't dropped the price or do deals for PS4. With this known and talk of PS4 Xbox 1 being down this year, PS4 sales results is in fact great performance.

It’s still not “great”. Great would be if it doesn’t drop at all, or a slight drop. Also, full MSRP would be $400, right? Using that term is weird 



Chart time!

This is the first batch. I'll try to get some more out tonight. I have to open at work tomorrow, so all the charts may not be posted until late tomorrow afternoon at the earliest.


Sorry for the tardiness. In addition to collating data and updating charts, I had to save local .png copies of a bunch of charts since the forum currently doesn't allow for direct copy-and-paste of images that are generated locally (such as in OpenOffice). This is a fairly time consuming process compared to the old way, so it may take me a bit longer to get some more charts out.

Anywho, it's clear that the PS4 & XBO are post-peak now. They both had their worst Q1 performances to date, with the PS4 being down 24.4% from last Q1, and the XBO being down a whopping 35%. For reference, the PS3 & 360 were down -24% and -27%, respectively, for 2012 as a whole, the year before they got replaced. The PS4's decline may be relatively normal for the first post-peak year, at least compared to this generation, but the XBO may be down considerably. Then again, the XBO had tremendous YoY improvements last year, with Q1 and Q2 in particular being up considerably thanks to the effects of the One X. First-half XBO sales last year were up 38%, with the gains being shared rather equally between Q1 & Q2, while Q3 was up only 18% and Q4 was down over 13%. So, it's still possible that the XBO's YoY drop will shrink as the year progresses.

Meanwhile, the Switch has experienced significant growth so far this year, with total Q1 sales growth of 20.7% year-over-year, despite no price cuts or new models. It also continues to vastly outperform the 3DS, and compared quite well to the PS4, selling almost 7% more units in Q1 this year than the PS4 did in Q1 2016. It was also the best Q1 performance of any Gen 8 console to date. With the arrival of Pokemon Sword & Shield and possibly a new hardware model later this year, the Switch stands a very good chance of selling over 7 million units this year if it continues this sort of sales growth. The last time any system sold over 7 million units in a single year was the Xbox 360 in 2011.

Right now, I think I'm confident enough to project year-end sales for each system:

NSW: 7-7.5M
PS4: 4-4.5M
XBO: 3.25-3.5M

The next batch of charts will focus on quarterly sales in general, and will include the requested Year 6 comparisons to previous generations.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Shadow1980 said:

Anywho, it's clear that the PS4 & XBO are post-peak now. They both had their worst Q1 performances to date, with the PS4 being down 24.4% from last Q1, and the XBO being down a whopping 35%. For reference, the PS3 & 360 were down -24% and -27%, respectively, for 2012 as a whole, the year before they got replaced. The PS4's decline may be relatively normal for the first post-peak year, at least compared to this generation, but the XBO may be down considerably. Then again, the XBO had tremendous YoY improvements last year, with Q1 and Q2 in particular being up considerably thanks to the effects of the One X. First-half XBO sales last year were up 38%, with the gains being shared rather equally between Q1 & Q2, while Q3 was up only 18% and Q4 was down over 13%. So, it's still possible that the XBO's YoY drop will shrink as the year progresses.

Meanwhile, the Switch has experienced significant growth so far this year, with total Q1 sales growth of 20.7% year-over-year, despite no price cuts or new models. It also continues to vastly outperform the 3DS, and compared quite well to the PS4, selling almost 7% more units in Q1 this year than the PS4 did in Q1 2016. It was also the best Q1 performance of any Gen 8 console to date. With the arrival of Pokemon Sword & Shield and possibly a new hardware model later this year, the Switch stands a very good chance of selling over 7 million units this year if it continues this sort of sales growth. The last time any system sold over 7 million units in a single year was the Xbox 360 in 2011.

Right now, I think I'm confident enough to project year-end sales for each system:

NSW: 7-7.5M
PS4: 4-4.5M
XBO: 3.25-3.5M

The next batch of charts will focus on quarterly sales in general, and will include the requested Year 6 comparisons to previous generations.

First, of all, thanks for the time you dedicated to these charts :O

Also, pretty clear from looking at the 3rd chart that the Switch is kind of having a blast right now while the other 2 will slowly (or increasingly) dwindle. We're now technically on Switch's 3rd year and I don't know but I think it's 4th year might be where the console will actually peak in terms of sales cuz of possible new models and the first actual price cut to the OG model, the fact that both of it's competitor will be out prepping for a while their next Gen until late 2020 and the lineup which could end up being really interesting to drive sales ...

Can't wait for the YEAR 6 comparaison too !



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

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Those graphics really show how well the Switch is doing. Best Q1 this gen is really good.



Software all rankings are revenuehttps://venturebeat.com/2019/04/23/march-2019-npd-kingdom-hearts-iii-becomes-the-series-best-seller-in-u-s/
Best selling games of the month..

  • Tom Clancy’s The Division 2
  • Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice
  • MLB 19: The Show
  • Devil May Cry 5
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
  • Red Dead Redemption II
  • NBA 2K19
  • Grand Theft Auto V
  • Yoshi’s Crafted World
  • Call of Duty: Black Ops 4

Best selling games of Q1

  • Kingdom Hearts III
  • The Division 2
  • Anthem
  • Resident Evil 2
  • Red Dead Redemption II
  • Jump Force
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
  • Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice
  • Call of Duty: Black Ops 4
  • New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe

Best selling games in the last 12 months

  • Red Dead Redemption II
  • Call of Duty: Black Ops 4
  • NBA 2K19
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
  • Madden NFL 19
  • Marvel’s Spider-Man
  • God of War 2018
  • Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey
  • FIFA 19
  • Mario Kart 8

Kingdom Hearts is now the best selling game in the series now.

Sekiro is From's second best best launch following Dark Souls 3.

MLB the show 19 had its best month in franchise history.

DMCV is the second best launch in the seires. The first is DMC4.

Division 2 is Ubisoft 6th best launch.



jason1637 said:

Software all rankings are revenuehttps://venturebeat.com/2019/04/23/march-2019-npd-kingdom-hearts-iii-becomes-the-series-best-seller-in-u-s/
Best selling games of the month..

  • Tom Clancy’s The Division 2
  • Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice
  • MLB 19: The Show
  • Devil May Cry 5
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
  • Red Dead Redemption II
  • NBA 2K19
  • Grand Theft Auto V
  • Yoshi’s Crafted World
  • Call of Duty: Black Ops 4

Best selling games of Q1

  • Kingdom Hearts III
  • The Division 2
  • Anthem
  • Resident Evil 2
  • Red Dead Redemption II
  • Jump Force
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
  • Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice
  • Call of Duty: Black Ops 4
  • New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe

Best selling games in the last 12 months

  • Red Dead Redemption II
  • Call of Duty: Black Ops 4
  • NBA 2K19
  • Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
  • Madden NFL 19
  • Marvel’s Spider-Man
  • God of War 2018
  • Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey
  • FIFA 19
  • Mario Kart 8

Kingdom Hearts is now the best selling game in the series now.

Sekiro is From's second best best launch following Dark Souls 3.

MLB the show 19 had its best month in franchise history.

DMCV is the second best launch in the seires. The first is DMC4.

Division 2 is Ubisoft 6th best launch.

Oh wow, amazing The power that that has.



thread update



Replicant said:
Nuvendil said:

Everyone was doing well when PS4 and Xbone weren't down 30%. Which is what Benji explained. And there were plenty of months the last two years when Switch  was leading the pack that all three were said to be doing well. I do think it was presumptuous for him to respond to a post he cannot see since he has that guy set to ignore, but that post was pretty strong spin. While he is right that Sony is being conservative with pushing PS4, they've been that way for a while now unless a big release is coming out. And MS going firesale and bundle crazy has been a constant since 2014. So while the factors he stated were true, they have been true since before the decline this year. And thus framing those things like new factors that relate specifically to this period is disingenuous. These declines aren't disastrous, but they are normal. Great would be a defying of expectations.

Oh and Xbox One sales are objectively not great. They weren't great very often before, they really aren't great now.

Bold: Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the XB1 decline quite small? I get that you don't think its sales were that great in the first place but I think it's having quite a healthy life this late in the gen.

XB1 (March)
2014: 258,000
2015: 229,000
2016: 242,000
2017: 200,000
2018: 299,000
2019: 221,000

PS4 is down 29.7% from its peak March but I wouldn't necessarily go out of my way to emphasize how I think that it "isn't great" for a console to pull 253,000 in the US in its 6th March (maybe Shadow knows how many consoles have had a better 6th March).

PS4 (March)
2014: 280,000
2015: 330,000
2016: 330,000
2017: 360,000
2018: 354,000
2019: 253,000

So in other words, XBO was only somewhat weaker than it's average for last month, but PS4 just had it's worst March.

A pricecut for the PS4 is getting more and more pressing, that is really a huge drop.