haxxiy said:
jason1637 said:
Unlikely. If Biden does end up being the nominee things will probably tighten up and Biden winning in the high 300 is very unlikely. Best case scenario for Biden is in the low 300s and most likely case for him is I'm the high 200s.
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Trump himself got low 300s in 2016... losing the elections 48% to 46%. Average polling showed a +6 Dem advantage in 2018, lower than Biden's in the polls, and Dems would have gotten mid 300s EVs if that were a presidential election (more, on all likehood, since their House of Representatives votes have been lagged their presidential votes for what, the last three or four elections?).
@Baalzamon: Carter and Bush Sr. were ousted from the presidency with low 400s and high 300s respectively. Granted, less polarization and all of that, back then, but both also had disapproval ratings well below or at most matching Trump's during most of their presidencies. Also... the end result was well within the margin of error of most polls, and those match-ups including Stein and Johnson were specially accurate. It's just that nobody expected third-party votes to come home or Trump's strength in the Rust Belt (speculated time and time again in the elections) to materialize.
EDIT - It should not be a particularly difficult election to win as long as the Democratic Party plays their cards well like 2006 - 2008. Nominating a centrist or at least a populist would go a long way to victory, instead of supporting policies which are literally less appealing than White Nationalism to American voters (such as abolishing private healthcare, busing, reparations, UBI, all of which have ~ 25% support or so).
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"Trump himself got low 300s in 2016... losing the elections 48% to 46%. Average polling showed a +6 Dem advantage in 2018, lower than Biden's in the polls, and Dems would have gotten mid 300s EVs if that were a presidential election (more, on all likehood, since their House of Representatives votes have been lagged their presidential votes for what, the last three or four elections?)."
Trump wasnt running in 2018 and his approval among those that voted in the 2018 midterms was 47% (+1 higher than his 46% in 2016). That was during a midterm year when it's normal for the sittinggs Presidents party to have lower turnout than usual. If 2018 was a presidential election you can't really make that apples to apples comparison because in some states a Republican might have won the Governorship whiel a Democrat wins the Senate and vise versa.
" It should not be a particularly difficult election to win as long as the Democratic Party plays their cards well like 2006 - 2008. Nominating a centrist or at least a populist would go a long way to victory, instead of supporting policies which are literally less appealing than White Nationalism to American voters (such as abolishing private healthcare, busing, reparations, UBI, all of which have ~ 25% support or so)."
It's going to be hard to beat a sitting President that's raising an absurd amount of money regardless of who the candidate is. A centrist might not be the best choice because they could aliens the more progressive base. A populist would be interesting to see though. A right wing populist versus a left wing populist would lead to crazy turnout.