Even in 28nm the components shouldn't consume nearly as much power at the clockrates they have I would be very surprised if it goes beyond even just 200W. It's basically a mobile CPU with an underclocked RX 480, which consumes only 150W without that underclocking, and some memory. Where do you got those TDPs?

And I agree with Matt, getting this into something close to 200W would either mean a gargantuan leap for AMD in the GPU department or just a bigger box which allows for more TDP. Right now the GPU alone would consume well over 300W to come near that power. While I think Navi will be less consuming, slashing consumption by over half is just not credible.

Besides, I don't believe the 500$ pricetag for that console, a GPU alone with that power would cost that already. Unless they want to go the PS3 route and subventionize over half the price early on.

The only things credible are the CPU (and even then, not sure about the 16 threads, as games are very hard to parallelize onto multiple threads, more than 8 thus doesn't make much sense in a console as the other threads are useless, so 8/8 would suffice and be safer in light of Spectre), the RAM (with a 384 bit connection) and the HDD (2TB should be minimum by then)

From Digital Foundry PS4 pro Test, from Digital Foundry Xbox One X test  . Also Radeon VII also able to beat  Vega 64 with the same TDP on half size chip but with higher clock speed. 

Don't forget consoles price is not the same with PC GPU card that selling on the market . We also have news RAM price will go down and GPU price also going down up to 30% next year. 

GCN is limited to 64 CU, so the only way to get Navi faster than that is to clock it faster. To reach 14TFlops almost 2Ghz would be needed, way too much for GCN.

Radeon VII is able to beat the Vega 64, but for this you would need a chip that beats Vega VII while just consuming less then half of it. That's just not feasible short of a wonder on Navi.

And don't worry, I took chip prices in the next year into account when I said it's going to cost twice those 500$ in production. CPU/GPU ( possibly combined in an APU, but I doubt it) alone will not come cheap as their footprint is much higher than on this Gen. The larger the chip, the higher the price, exponentially so in fact. An APU with Zen2 and Navi with 64 CU will be at least around 500mm² in 7nm, way too expensive to sell for under 400$ a chip (in 2 separate chips a somewhat lower price is possible to get). The APU in the PS4 and the Pro is only around 250mm2, so just one quarter of the size (don't forget it's squared) that the chip in the leak would take, in fact the GPU alone would be larger than that.

Add to this 24GB not-yet-released (and thus more expensive, at least early on) GDDR6 Memory (GDDR6 is based on DDR4 btw), even with the dropping memory prices that will be around another 100$ for sure early on. Add all the other components, assembly and shipping, and you're getting close to 1000$ even without paying consumer prices.