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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 26 January 2019 (RE2 Week)

colafitte on 14 February 2019
zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:
PS4 is going to be compared badly from last year numbers, because January 2018 was very good for PS4 worldwide (thanks for JP and MH World). I prefer to see what PS4 is going to do in Feb and March compared to last year to make a better guess on PS4's performance for 2019.

As for Switch, little by little aproaching the same baseline of sales as last year. I really think sales are going to be flat this 1st half of the year compared to 2018. JP maybe is going to be better but i won't be surprised if EU and US is lower than last year.

And XBO showing better than probably is doing in reality, because i don't really expect XBO doing so close as last year without the holiday deals and without a recent XBO X console like last year.

These very first months of the year are going to be really hard to track correctly i am afraid. Until NPD's and Q4 results won't know for sure.

Idk Japan is up 45% YoY in the first 6 weeks of the year and it's not like Japan has gotten anything significant that skipped the West.

I know each region is going to have their own trends but I just dont see why Japan would be up so much while the West is down or stagnant.

Is not what i'm saying already happening in this week? If Switch is only 14k more than last year worldwide, and i think Switch this week was doing more than 14k this year than compared to the same week in 2018 in JP, then in conclusion, in the rest of the world is flat or even less, isn't it?

I'm basing all of this in VGC numbers of course.



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zorg1000 on 14 February 2019
colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

Idk Japan is up 45% YoY in the first 6 weeks of the year and it's not like Japan has gotten anything significant that skipped the West.

I know each region is going to have their own trends but I just dont see why Japan would be up so much while the West is down or stagnant.

Is not what i'm saying already happening in this week? If Switch is only 14k more than last year worldwide, and i think Switch this week was doing more than 14k this year than compared to the same week in 2018 in JP, then in conclusion, in the rest of the world is flat or even less, isn't it?

I'm basing all of this in VGC numbers of course.

I guess what I'm trying to say is I'm not sure if I believe these numbers. I cant think of any reason why Japan would be up so much while the West is declining.

I guess we just have to wait a few days when NPD numbers come out to have a better picture.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 14 February 2019
CGI-Quality said:
zorg1000 said:

Any word on when the weekly numbers on the front page will be fixed?

Soon. We're working with Talon on several fixes and that is one of them.

Sounds good, thanks for the update.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

colafitte on 14 February 2019
zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

Is not what i'm saying already happening in this week? If Switch is only 14k more than last year worldwide, and i think Switch this week was doing more than 14k this year than compared to the same week in 2018 in JP, then in conclusion, in the rest of the world is flat or even less, isn't it?

I'm basing all of this in VGC numbers of course.

I guess what I'm trying to say is I'm not sure if I believe these numbers. I cant think of any reason why Japan would be up so much while the West is declining.

I guess we just have to wait a few days when NPD numbers come out to have a better picture.

Oh yeah, i get what you say. I expressed the same doubts in my original post, but because this is a VGC week thread, i can only talk about these numbers. 

January NPD numbers are going to be interesting, because i really don't know what to expect from anyone.



colafitte on 14 February 2019
Mar1217 said:
colafitte said:

Oh yeah, i get what you say. I expressed the same doubts in my original post, but because this is a VGC week thread, i can only talk about these numbers. 

January NPD numbers are going to be interesting, because i really don't know what to expect from anyone.

Aaah, the familiar "wait-n-see" game where we just wait for NPD and fiscal reports to get precise numbers on our estimations.

Such a fun time.

Life is a flat circle you know......



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zorg1000 on 14 February 2019

YTD 2018
PS4-1,287,349
NSW-948,507
XBO-346,019
3DS-321,487
PSV-38,586

YTD 2019
PS4-1,045,281 (-18.8%)
NSW-1,128,781 (+19.0%)
XBO-309,604 (-10.5%)
3DS-212,065 (-34.0%)
PSV-9,265 (-76.0%)



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

colafitte on 14 February 2019
zorg1000 said:
YTD 2018
PS4-1,287,349
NSW-948,507
XBO-346,019
3DS-321,487
PSV-38,586

YTD 2019
PS4-1,045,281 (-18.8%)
NSW-1,128,781 (+19.0%)
XBO-309,604 (-10.5%)
3DS-212,065 (-34.0%)
PSV-9,265 (-76.0%)

It will be interesting to see those numbers without JP numbers. That will show what i was saying earlier. That VGC is tracking PS4 and Switch flat in the rest of the world compared to last year.



zorg1000 on 15 February 2019
colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:
YTD 2018
PS4-1,287,349
NSW-948,507
XBO-346,019
3DS-321,487
PSV-38,586

YTD 2019
PS4-1,045,281 (-18.8%)
NSW-1,128,781 (+19.0%)
XBO-309,604 (-10.5%)
3DS-212,065 (-34.0%)
PSV-9,265 (-76.0%)

It will be interesting to see those numbers without JP numbers. That will show what i was saying earlier. That VGC is tracking PS4 and Switch flat in the rest of the world compared to last year.

We get numbers from Japan every week so all the info you need is available already.

Japan

PS4

2018-328,143

2019-204,590 (-37.7%)

NSW

2018-273,640

2019-401,606 (+46.8%)

 

Rest of the World

PS4

2018-959,206

2019-840,691 (-12.4%)

NSW

2018-674,867

2019-727,175 (+7.8%)



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

colafitte on 15 February 2019
zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

It will be interesting to see those numbers without JP numbers. That will show what i was saying earlier. That VGC is tracking PS4 and Switch flat in the rest of the world compared to last year.

We get numbers from Japan every week so all the info you need is available already.

Japan

PS4

2018-328,143

2019-204,590 (-37.7%)

NSW

2018-273,640

2019-401,606 (+46.8%)

 

Rest of the World

PS4

2018-959,206

2019-840,691 (-12.4%)

NSW

2018-674,867

2019-727,175 (+7.8%)

So around 10%+/- more or less for PS4 and Switch. It's not as technically flat as a i said but it's close to that.



StarDoor on 15 February 2019

In the first 3 weeks of the January NPD period, VGChartz says:
186k Switch
139k PS4
127k Xbox One

Looking at what each console sold in the most recent week, we should expect NPD results in these ranges if VGChartz is accurate:
240k - 250k Switch
190k - 220k PS4
165k - 175k Xbox One

The Switch and Xbox One estimates are based on sales remaining constant in the fourth week, while PS4's third week sales are used as a minimum and 81k (+33k) as the maximum because of Kingdom Hearts 3.