The two biggest games this generation(excluding Wii Sports and Wii Play) are Halo 3 and Super Mario Galaxy. I have been watching SMG's sales inch closer and closer to Halo 3 for the past few months. I finally decided to make a thread to try to predict when it will happen.

Here is some data I collected using the sales data:

Over the past 8 weeks SMG has caught up by 202,828 units. On average SMG outsells Halo 3 by 33.8K per week. If these trends continue it will take 36.7 weeks which would mean it would happen the week of December 20th 2008.

I think it will take less time than this because Halo sales seem to be dropping faster than SMG sales. I also believe Wii sales will increase soon when Nintendo ups production, not to mention the sales of SMG when the Wii launches in South Korea.

I will guess the week of October 25th 2008, 29 weeks from now. I will continue to update this thread as more data come in. 

Nope not even galaxy defies gravity that much.

It's going to happen this year. I have no idea when. This chart is great though. Halo 3 goes down slightly almost every week, and SMG goes up and down like a yo-yo, just like the Wii and many Wii games, depending on Wii availability. If the chart covered the last 20 weeks instead of the last 8, I think the average would be a lot more reliable, but this will definitely happen this year. People still buy a Wii with SMG and people still buy a 360 with Halo 3, but then again, the Wii is outselling the 360 every week, so that's helping SMG a ton too.

Haha, well we can all thank CoD4 for the dwindling H3 sales. Do we know the China/S. Korea launch dates for the Wii? Those could hugely effect my predictions on the over taking of the Halo 3.

Sing with me, now. "CoD4 killed the Halo 3 star"

We only know SMG is coming out in Korea this year, not when this year. It may not even come out until after Oct. Either way, great chart. We all know SMG will pass Halo 3 at some point. This year looks likely. They will both pass 8 million this year.

The 360 gets a new FPS every week, and the Wii won't be getting any platformers half as good as Galaxy any time soon.

I hope Smash Brothers can get close to the combined sales of these overrated games.

yeah, its hard to predict when will galaxy outsell Halo 3, I still guessing sometime late this year

i say before the end of November 2008

I don't think it will happen and if it does it won't happen for a long time.