Forums - Sales Discussion - December NPD 2018 thread

p0isonparadise said:
Smash was #1 for the month and sold 3,592,000 at retail. Largest opening for an exclusive.

1 month

USA-3592k

Japan-2614k

USA+Japan-6206k

When you add the rest of the world and digital than it's likely over 10 million in 1 month.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Acevil said:
p0isonparadise said:
Smash was #1 for the month and sold 3,592,000 at retail. Largest opening for an exclusive.

New king of exclusives. It should have decent digital rate with that said I wonder if this will ever be beat retail wise.

This number will be useful to know the top 10. Because 3'6M is a perfect number to know how good games like Spiderman, Far Cry 5, NBA 2k19 or God of War did. Because digital won't be counted Smash probably is going to be below those, but still, it will be a confirmation of how much those games did still.



zorg1000 said:
p0isonparadise said:
Smash was #1 for the month and sold 3,592,000 at retail. Largest opening for an exclusive.

1 month

USA-3592k

Japan-2614k

USA+Japan-6206k

When you add the rest of the world and digital than it's likely over 10 million in 1 month.

Doubt it. Probably around 8m. Maybe 10m including shipped.



colafitte said:
Acevil said:

New king of exclusives. It should have decent digital rate with that said I wonder if this will ever be beat retail wise.

This number will be useful to know the top 10. Because 3'6M is a perfect number to know how good games like Spiderman, Far Cry 5, NBA 2k19 or God of War did. Because digital won't be counted Smash probably is going to be below those, but still, it will be a confirmation of how much those games did still.

God of War - 1.9 million

Spider-Man - 2.6 million

Digital included.



zorg1000 said:
p0isonparadise said:
Smash was #1 for the month and sold 3,592,000 at retail. Largest opening for an exclusive.

1 month

USA-3592k

Japan-2614k

USA+Japan-6206k

When you add the rest of the world and digital than it's likely over 10 million in 1 month.

Europe should be another 2000-2500k and the rest of the world almost 1000k, so maybe 9000-9500k at retail. If digital for this game is around 10-15% it must have finished the month between 10-11M. It obliterated my prediction of 8'5M. Super impressive numbers.



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p0isonparadise said:
colafitte said:

This number will be useful to know the top 10. Because 3'6M is a perfect number to know how good games like Spiderman, Far Cry 5, NBA 2k19 or God of War did. Because digital won't be counted Smash probably is going to be below those, but still, it will be a confirmation of how much those games did still.

God of War - 1.9 million

Spider-Man - 2.6 million

Digital included.

i meant for the year, this way we can know how much those games did at least in USA if they're above Smash when they give the top 10 for the year, but thanks anyway.



colafitte said:
p0isonparadise said:

God of War - 1.9 million

Spider-Man - 2.6 million

Digital included.

i meant for the year, this way we can know how much those games did at least in USA if they're above Smash when they give the top 10 for the year, but thanks anyway.

Sorry, I think Smash will barely miss the top 10.



p0isonparadise said:
colafitte said:

i meant for the year, this way we can know how much those games did at least in USA if they're above Smash when they give the top 10 for the year, but thanks anyway.

Sorry, I think Smash will barely miss the top 10.

Yeah, probably... the top 10 should probably be (in no particular order), RDR2, COD BOPS4, NBA2k19, FC5, Spiderman, GOW, Madden NFL19, .....mmm maybe can be top 10 still, the only ones i can think could have sold more than 3'6M in USA are BF V and AC Odyssey....I don't think Pokemon Let's Go or MH World were capable.



jason1637 said:
zorg1000 said:

1 month

USA-3592k

Japan-2614k

USA+Japan-6206k

When you add the rest of the world and digital than it's likely over 10 million in 1 month.

Doubt it. Probably around 8m. Maybe 10m including shipped.

No way, this site has it at 1.4 million after 3 weeks in Europe so probably close to 1.8 million when the next 2 weeks are added.

That brings it to 8 million for USA+Japan+Europe and does not include Canada, Latin America, Australia, New Zealand, Middle East or the rest of Asia. None of those individually are big but should easily be another ~500k combined.

That brings it to ~8.5 million, then add 15-20% for digital and you have ~10 million.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
YTD
NSW: 5640K
PS4: 5330K
XB1: 4340K

I remembered that I still have ResetEra's consensus because a year ago somebody was furious about the positive attitude towards Switch's sales prospects. The consensus didn't show that "Switch was predicted to destroy the PS4" and just about the only discernable bias of the consensus was that people don't like Xbox.

Consensus prediction of ResetEra:

PS4 - 5.676m
Switch - 6.211m
XB1 - 4.086m

The reason why the attention shifted to ResetEra was that VGC's much less numerous consensus didn't support the claim either.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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