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Forums - Sales Discussion - December NPD 2018 thread

colafitte said:

I was disappointed too with PS4 the moment it became clear Sony was not going to go all in with deals in the holiday season.

I think it is better for them to sold 18 mils PS4 with a good profit on each console than 20 with close to 0 profits.

 



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2019 will 90% be the 6 million year for the Switch.Now if only Nintendo would have a direct so I can make that 90% an 100%. PS4 and Xbox sales are only natural, there will be a big decline this year



KingofTrolls said:
colafitte said:

I was disappointed too with PS4 the moment it became clear Sony was not going to go all in with deals in the holiday season.

I think it is better for them to sold 18 mils PS4 with a good profit on each console than 20 with close to 0 profits.

 

yeah...but WHAT IF...?!?!?!

We will never know now.....

It also shows that there still a lot of sales for PS4 in 2019, because if they sold that much at that price, it points to a good year for PS4 in 2019, and depending of price cuts, it could also surprise us again with better numbers than anticipated by most. If there is one console capable of that, is ps4.



colafitte said:

It also shows that there still a lot of sales for PS4 in 2019, because if they sold that much at that price, it points to a good year for PS4 in 2019, and depending of price cuts, it could also surprise us again with better numbers than anticipated by most. If there is one console capable of that, is ps4.

Lets say Sony drop the price hard for PS4, 100 dollars per unit, and they got that 20 mil, hell, 21 million. So 3 million more

The result is that PS4 sold mere 2.73% more than it did overall in real life, and they cut off  quite like 2100000000 $

 

At the end of the day, money talks, BS walks.




November + December 2018
NSW - 1356k + 1770k = 3126k (+ 33.9%)
PS4 - 1478k + 820k = 2298k (-13.7%)
XB1 - 1342k + 930k = 2272k (-17.1%)

November + December 2017
NSW - 835k* + 1500k = 2335k
PS4 - 1582k + 1080k = 2662k
XBO - 1376k + 1365k = 2741k

*Data in the thread said between 770k and 900k so I went with the halfway point.

Edit: I'd say this puts in perspective the Smash did little for hardware narrative. Switch had a 33% stronger holiday period thanks to Smash and Pokémon. The reason we get a "disappointing" 14% YoY is because Nintendo slacked off in the other 10 months and the holidays had to make up for it.

Last edited by TruckOSaurus - on 22 January 2019

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KingofTrolls said:
colafitte said:

It also shows that there still a lot of sales for PS4 in 2019, because if they sold that much at that price, it points to a good year for PS4 in 2019, and depending of price cuts, it could also surprise us again with better numbers than anticipated by most. If there is one console capable of that, is ps4.

Lets say Sony drop the price hard for PS4, 100 dollars per unit, and they got that 20 mil, hell, 21 million. So 3 million more

The result is that PS4 sold mere 2.73% more than it did overall in real life, and they cut off  quite like 2100000000 $

 

At the end of the day, money talks, BS walks.


Oh don't get me wrong. I'm with you in all of this. That's why i expect Sony not doing a huge price cut this year (50$ max), and Nintendo delaying as much as possible a Switch price cut this year too. For these companies....profit >>> sales.



Now where were all those saying NS would do 2.5M????

And lol @ sony being last again for december.



colafitte said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
Switch did GREAT! Best Dec this gen and won the US this year! But it scares me that the jump from last year is not that big despite having Smash which is a HUGE success. Makes me think it might not have been as high if Smash had not released. XB1 solid for the sales it has been getting since release. Not great but solid. PS4 was a let down for me, Sony just didn't try this Dec and it shows. Overall a pretty Meh Dec for all 3.

I was disappointed too with PS4 the moment it became clear Sony was not going to go all in with deals in the holiday season. Before BF i expected this to be the best Holiday season for PS4 in USA thanks to RDR2, Spiderman, GOW, ...I can't blame Sony though, because they just sold the same as last year and probably they were more profitable this way, but we, in this forums, are romantics of great numbers, and i thought PS4 could easily had achieved 19-20M sold in 2018 if Sony wanted.

With Switch, the problem is that people go from overstimating to understimating it. If you sell close to 17M in your second year at $300 is an impressive result. But when you have people all year expecting Switch to be like Wii or DS, you are going to find people disappointed with numbers like this, and it's normal. Being disappointed by something doesn't mean that thing is bad or is doing bad. Switch did great and is going to do great in 2019 again, just not like Wii or DS (at least this first few years).

Oh yes the Switch will do great in Dec for sure! And yeah I was upset with Sony but they went for max profit so I can't blame them. It does leave them some wiggle room for 2019 though with pricecuts and some nice games like Days Gone, Death Strand, TLOU2 etc. So we will see what they do.

zorg1000 said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
Switch did GREAT! Best Dec this gen and won the US this year! But it scares me that the jump from last year is not that big despite having Smash which is a HUGE success. Makes me think it might not have been as high if Smash had not released. XB1 solid for the sales it has been getting since release. Not great but solid. PS4 was a let down for me, Sony just didn't try this Dec and it shows. Overall a pretty Meh Dec for all 3.

One potential reason I can think of is that due to January being a 5 week month last year, it shifted the tracking periods in November's favor.

2017 tracking periods

Oct 29-Nov 25

Nov 26-Dec 30

 

2018 tracking periods

Nov 4-Dec 1

Dec 2-Jan 5

 

So basically Dec 2017 included the last week of Nov which is a big holiday shopping week (includes Cyber Monday) while Dec 2018 lacked that week and instead included the first week of January where sales drop significantly.

If 2018 had the same tracking period as 2017 than I think Nov would have been a bit lower while 2018 a bit higher and is why i guess it makes more sense to compare Nov+Dec.

Yeah that definitely makes a lot more sense.



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TruckOSaurus said:

November + December 2018
NSW - 1356k + 1770k = 3126k (+ 33.9%)
PS4 - 1478k + 820k = 2298k (-13.7%)
XB1 - 1342k + 930k = 2272k (-17.1%)

November + December 2017
NSW - 835k* + 1500k = 2335k
PS4 - 1582k + 1080k = 2662k
XBO - 1376k + 1365k = 2741k

*Data in the thread said between 770k and 900k so I went with the halfway point.

Edit: I'd say this puts in perspective the Smash did little for hardware narrative. Switch had a 33% stronger holiday period thanks to Smash and Pokémon. The reason we get a "disappointing" 14% YoY is because Nintendo slacked off in the other 10 months and the holidays had to make up for it.

Maybe it was because the Smash Bundle was available in November. Which gave sales to November which could have been in December if the bundle was released at the same time as Smash. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

colafitte said:
KingofTrolls said:

I think it is better for them to sold 18 mils PS4 with a good profit on each console than 20 with close to 0 profits.

 

yeah...but WHAT IF...?!?!?!

We will never know now.....

It also shows that there still a lot of sales for PS4 in 2019, because if they sold that much at that price, it points to a good year for PS4 in 2019, and depending of price cuts, it could also surprise us again with better numbers than anticipated by most. If there is one console capable of that, is ps4.

 

KingofTrolls said:
colafitte said:

It also shows that there still a lot of sales for PS4 in 2019, because if they sold that much at that price, it points to a good year for PS4 in 2019, and depending of price cuts, it could also surprise us again with better numbers than anticipated by most. If there is one console capable of that, is ps4.

Lets say Sony drop the price hard for PS4, 100 dollars per unit, and they got that 20 mil, hell, 21 million. So 3 million more

The result is that PS4 sold mere 2.73% more than it did overall in real life, and they cut off  quite like 2100000000 $

 

At the end of the day, money talks, BS walks.


yup..... 

people can just forget about that price drop as long as sony can still manage like 16M+ sales at $299. I mean the NS has a smaller install base and is currently averaging around 16M/yr also at $299 and is still less than 2yrs old. 

Why should the 5yr+ old PS4 drop its price from $299 when its still putting up 18M+ years?

I will say it again' no price drop unless we have sub 2014 year numbers.