20 million is in the bag and I think it will at least catch the PS2. So at minimum, the 4 best selling video game systems of all time are all Nintendo systems. From the looks of the quickly declining 3DS, it's not going to do much more than it is now. The best Nintendo should hope for at this point is for the 3DS to scratch and claw its way to 25 million units sold, but that'll be it. Now, will the Switch be able to reach that? It's too early to tell. It's falling further and further behind the 3DS as we speak when we align them both from launch to now. However, what the Switch will have going for it in the future is that the 3DS peaked very early. It's best selling year in Japan was 2012 with just barely under 5.5 million. Followed by 2013 with a little over 5 million. But then in 2014 its sales dropped like a rock right down to around 3.2 million. By 2016, it was under 2 million a year in Japan.
Obviously, we don't know yet how exactly the Switch's legs will be, but I will say I think it has more going for it than the 3DS had back then simply because by the end of 2012, the 3DS had already had an $80 price cut down to $169.99 MSRP and a hardware revision, the Nintendo 3DS XL, giving it 2 systems with prices at $170 and $200, respectively. Meanwhile, the Switch has neither a price cut or a hardware revision. It's still selling at its $300 price with its two biggest powerhouses on their way. With those two games, plus the influx of new games slated for this year that Japanese gamers will jump on (Luigi's Mansion 3, Fire Emblem: Three Houses, Dragon Quest XI S), I think that should bring the Switch to 4 million even without a price cut or hardware revision. WITH one, and I think it'll be closer to 5 million than 4 million for 2019.