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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 15 December 2018

DonFerrari said:
drinkandswim said:

Its true Nintendo hasn’t been a direct competitor since the Gamecube. But they are still competiting and I would rather see Nintendo around then end up like Sega. Nintendo cant afford to take the same risks as Sony or Microsoft.

SO are you finally accepting that Switch isn't directly competing with PS4 and X1 and that the drop in sales is related to their age and saturation and not due to Switch doing great?

I never thought they were a direct competitor, as in targeting the exact same audience. But I do believe there is a small impact on the fringe markets surrounding PS4 and Xbox One. 



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OTBWY said:
When Nintendo has a successful console = Non direct! Doing their own thing!
When Nintendo has a less successful console = LOL can't compete with PS or Xbox LOL

It's pretty obvious that Nintendo having success is harmful and requires some mental gymnastics to cope.

Also, Switch has a core audience. You can't play the casual audience argument anymore.

Not this.

Nintendo saw they wouldn't be able to directly compete with Sony during PS1 and 2, then they started going for a market of their own since Wii and at the same time MS that started well in Xbox grow and made it even harder.

The flip flop you are putting is more to do with your interpretation to try and label others as Nintendo haters.

drinkandswim said:
DonFerrari said:

SO are you finally accepting that Switch isn't directly competing with PS4 and X1 and that the drop in sales is related to their age and saturation and not due to Switch doing great?

I never thought they were a direct Competitor. I think they are a fringe competitor. That is why you only see a small impact. I mean obviously they can't be a direct competitor. They cant target the same exact market. And I agree that Switch has a greater impact on 3DS sales than PS4/Xbox Sales. However, that was necessary 3DS is way outdated hardware. 

Ok thank you. All your posts on Switch making PS4 and X1 market shrinking seemed to indicate otherwise.

And of course there is some impact, indirect competitors and substitute products impact the market you are analyzing.

Also are you now more ready to accept that the YOY drop PS4 and X1 will get in 2019 and 2020 have more to do with their age and saturation than the success of Switch? (sure if Switch didn't exist the drop could be smaller, but not much).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
OTBWY said:
When Nintendo has a successful console = Non direct! Doing their own thing!
When Nintendo has a less successful console = LOL can't compete with PS or Xbox LOL

It's pretty obvious that Nintendo having success is harmful and requires some mental gymnastics to cope.

Also, Switch has a core audience. You can't play the casual audience argument anymore.

Not this.

Nintendo saw they wouldn't be able to directly compete with Sony during PS1 and 2, then they started going for a market of their own since Wii and at the same time MS that started well in Xbox grow and made it even harder.

The flip flop you are putting is more to do with your interpretation to try and label others as Nintendo haters.

What market is that Don? Movies? Books? Or ... Video Games? In what market is the Switch killing it?



DonFerrari said:
OTBWY said:
When Nintendo has a successful console = Non direct! Doing their own thing!
When Nintendo has a less successful console = LOL can't compete with PS or Xbox LOL

It's pretty obvious that Nintendo having success is harmful and requires some mental gymnastics to cope.

Also, Switch has a core audience. You can't play the casual audience argument anymore.

Not this.

Nintendo saw they wouldn't be able to directly compete with Sony during PS1 and 2, then they started going for a market of their own since Wii and at the same time MS that started well in Xbox grow and made it even harder.

The flip flop you are putting is more to do with your interpretation to try and label others as Nintendo haters.

drinkandswim said:

I never thought they were a direct Competitor. I think they are a fringe competitor. That is why you only see a small impact. I mean obviously they can't be a direct competitor. They cant target the same exact market. And I agree that Switch has a greater impact on 3DS sales than PS4/Xbox Sales. However, that was necessary 3DS is way outdated hardware. 

Ok thank you. All your posts on Switch making PS4 and X1 market shrinking seemed to indicate otherwise.

And of course there is some impact, indirect competitors and substitute products impact the market you are analyzing.

Also are you now more ready to accept that the YOY drop PS4 and X1 will get in 2019 and 2020 have more to do with their age and saturation than the success of Switch? (sure if Switch didn't exist the drop could be smaller, but not much).

Well age and saturation definitely has an impact. So will people expecting next gen in 2020. I know I am holding off for that. I dont expect a huge drop for PS4 or Xbox One if they drop their prices. With a price drop maybe 10-15% drop. Xbox could see a bigger drop. I still think PS4 has a strong place in the Market due to their amazing library of games. 



Every time I enter this thread I hope there's some actual on topic discussion going on to take part in.

Once again leaving dissapointed



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OTBWY said:
DonFerrari said:

Not this.

Nintendo saw they wouldn't be able to directly compete with Sony during PS1 and 2, then they started going for a market of their own since Wii and at the same time MS that started well in Xbox grow and made it even harder.

The flip flop you are putting is more to do with your interpretation to try and label others as Nintendo haters.

What market is that Don? Movies? Books? Or ... Video Games? In what market is the Switch killing it?

So all books are direct competitors with same public? All videos? All Cars? Smartphones and Consoles?

drinkandswim said:
DonFerrari said:

Not this.

Nintendo saw they wouldn't be able to directly compete with Sony during PS1 and 2, then they started going for a market of their own since Wii and at the same time MS that started well in Xbox grow and made it even harder.

The flip flop you are putting is more to do with your interpretation to try and label others as Nintendo haters.

Ok thank you. All your posts on Switch making PS4 and X1 market shrinking seemed to indicate otherwise.

And of course there is some impact, indirect competitors and substitute products impact the market you are analyzing.

Also are you now more ready to accept that the YOY drop PS4 and X1 will get in 2019 and 2020 have more to do with their age and saturation than the success of Switch? (sure if Switch didn't exist the drop could be smaller, but not much).

Well age and saturation definitely has an impact. So will people expecting next gen in 2020. I know I am holding off for that. I dont expect a huge drop for PS4 or Xbox One if they drop their prices. With a price drop maybe 10-15% drop. Xbox could see a bigger drop. I still think PS4 has a strong place in the Market due to their amazing library of games. 

Well you are on the minority as usually the people who buy late on the gen aren't the same that buy on the start, usually due to cost. You can get X1 or PS4 by 199 on promotions and have a big library with a lot of good games costing 5-10 instead of 400+ consoles with few games and all costing 60.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
OTBWY said:

What market is that Don? Movies? Books? Or ... Video Games? In what market is the Switch killing it?

So all books are direct competitors with same public? All videos? All Cars? Smartphones and Consoles?

Switch, PS4 and Xbox all play games, mostly the same games. A book and a movie are both part of the entertainment market, thus compete indirectly. However, this distinction is nowhere to be found between the current consoles. So if you're basing indirect competition in the range of focus group (which is wrong), what is the difference between the audiences? What goalpost do you have in mind?



DonFerrari said:
OTBWY said:

What market is that Don? Movies? Books? Or ... Video Games? In what market is the Switch killing it?

So all books are direct competitors with same public? All videos? All Cars? Smartphones and Consoles?

drinkandswim said:

Well age and saturation definitely has an impact. So will people expecting next gen in 2020. I know I am holding off for that. I dont expect a huge drop for PS4 or Xbox One if they drop their prices. With a price drop maybe 10-15% drop. Xbox could see a bigger drop. I still think PS4 has a strong place in the Market due to their amazing library of games. 

Well you are on the minority as usually the people who buy late on the gen aren't the same that buy on the start, usually due to cost. You can get X1 or PS4 by 199 on promotions and have a big library with a lot of good games costing 5-10 instead of 400+ consoles with few games and all costing 60.

Well I have Xbox One already, if i upgraded it would be to Xbox One X or PS4 Pro.



OTBWY said:
DonFerrari said:

So all books are direct competitors with same public? All videos? All Cars? Smartphones and Consoles?

Switch, PS4 and Xbox all play games, mostly the same games. A book and a movie are both part of the entertainment market, thus compete indirectly. However, this distinction is nowhere to be found between the current consoles. So if you're basing indirect competition in the range of focus group (which is wrong), what is the difference between the audiences? What goalpost do you have in mind?

So are you saying all books directly compete among themselves?

And Switch PS4 and Xbox play mostly the same games? Are you in some type of joke? Even more when looking not only the percentage of participation of 3rd parties in the sales of each system but also the sales of each game on these platforms and finally the games available in one but not the other.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

drinkandswim said:
DonFerrari said:

So all books are direct competitors with same public? All videos? All Cars? Smartphones and Consoles?

Well you are on the minority as usually the people who buy late on the gen aren't the same that buy on the start, usually due to cost. You can get X1 or PS4 by 199 on promotions and have a big library with a lot of good games costing 5-10 instead of 400+ consoles with few games and all costing 60.

Well I have Xbox One already, if i upgraded it would be to Xbox One X or PS4 Pro.

To play the same games you are playing. Still that is a minor impact on the expected sales. Pro consoles will be a hard sale when the next gen start. Because you will have something like 

Base console 150-200, Pro version 250-300, current gen 400-500. I can see someone buying 150 base because he thinks 400 is a little to high, but if he is willing to pay 300 for improved last gen then why not go 100 more for current gen that will be much better and plus the pro will stop getting new games soon.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."