Shore said:
Thanks!
I'm not arguing that nintendo games have big budgets but i believe that Botw is an exception to that rule considering it's development time (over 4 years) and the amount of people that worked on it (more than 300 according to Eiji Aonuma). That being said i personaly believe that the development costs for the game was something around 60m, excluding marketing, but this is just my guess as we have almost nothing official on the matter. |
BOTW was 100m to develop
Dwitch europe got adjusted up. Probably fue to the french news
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I really think Switch is going to be overtracked in Europe. Switch sold 3'3M in Europe in 2017 according to VGC numbers. We already know Switch grew 20% in UK and 24% in France, so let's say Switch grew 25% all over Europe. That will put the number in 4'1M for 2018. Right now, VGC is showing 4'2M already with 2 weeks left to end the year.
It's possible PS4 and XBO are overtracked too...
| colafitte said: I really think Switch is going to be overtracked in Europe. Switch sold 3'3M in Europe in 2017 according to VGC numbers. We already know Switch grew 20% in UK and 24% in France, so let's say Switch grew 25% all over Europe. That will put the number in 4'1M for 2018. Right now, VGC is showing 4'2M already with 2 weeks left to end the year. It's possible PS4 and XBO are overtracked too... |
This. Switch is undertracked. Also based on gfk numbers the Xbox One is around 500k but vgc has it at 700k for the year in the UK. And switch is overtracked in the UK too.
And if we put the same growth for USA, 20-25% (from 4'9M from 2017) Switch will end with 5'9-6'1M in 2018, meaning Switch sold 2'1-2'3M in December which is in line for what insiders are expecting for the month in December NPD.
We know Japan was just around 100K more than in 2017 so is going to be flat, but if we apply 25% growth for the rest of the world:
13'1M sold in 2017 (according to VGC) -3'4M in Japan in 2017 = 9'7M in the rest of the world
25% growth of that 9'7 is 12'1M. If we sum to that number the 3'5M sales from Japan in 2018......15'6M. It's not an accurate number of course, most probably it will be something more, but we can start seeing what the final numbers worldwide are going to be...
To reach 16'5M worldiwde it needs a 35% growth YOY in ROTW, and to reach 17'5M it needs a 45% growth YOY in ROTW.
Last edited by colafitte - on 09 January 2019
| colafitte said: And if we put the same growth for USA, 20-25% (from 4'9M from 2017) Switch will end with 5'9-6'1M in 2018, meaning Switch sold 2'1-2'3M in December which is in line for what insiders are expecting for the month in December NPD. We know Japan was just around 100K more than in 2017 so is going to be flat, but if we apply 25% growth for the rest of the world: 13'1M sold in 2017 (according to VGC) -3'5M in Japan = 9'7M in the rest of the world 25% growth of that 9'7 is 12'1M. If we sum to that number the 3'6M sales from Japan......15'7M. It's not an accurate number of course, most probably it will be something more, but we can start seeing what the final numbers worldwide are going to be... To reach 16'5M worldiwde it needs a 35% growth YOY in ROTW, and to reach 17'5M it needs a 45% growth YOY in ROTW. |
Some RotW countries should have much larger growth due to releasing later. For example, Argentina got it in August 2017, Taiwan/S. Korea in Decemeber 2017, Turkey in July 2018.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
Some RotW countries should have much larger growth due to releasing later. For example, Argentina got it in August 2017, Taiwan/S. Korea in Decemeber 2017, Turkey in July 2018. |
In this case i exposed, ROTW is everything not Japan, so USA, UK, France, Germany, Asia, Africa, South America, etc.....
Countries like Argentina, Turkey or S Korea could grow 100% and still not be enough because in this case, US, UK, France are 80-90% of the sales of this particular ROTW, and if those countries growth are just 20-25%, it's impossible the rest could make the difference.
Switch is selling really good, even better than PS4, in USA, JP, most of Europe,... but somewhere around the world PS4 is making a huge difference that Switch and XBO can't match.
I expected myself 16'3M precisely is some other thread, so I expect more than that 15'7M number but selling more than 16'5M worldwide is going to be really difficult if all of this i'm saying is true.
colafitte said:
In this case i exposed, ROTW is everything not Japan, so USA, UK, France, Germany, Asia, Africa, South America, etc..... Countries like Argentina, Turkey or S Korea could grow 100% and still not be enough because in this case, US, UK, France are 80-90% of the sales of this particular ROTW, and if those countries growth are just 20-25%, it's impossible the rest could make the difference. Switch is selling really good, even better than PS4, in USA, JP, most of Europe,... but somewhere around the world PS4 is making a huge difference that Switch and XBO can't match. I expected myself 16'3M precisely is some other thread, so I expect more than that 15'7M number but selling more than 16'5M worldwide is going to be really difficult if all of this i'm saying is true. |
Per Nintendo sales figures 22.86 million as of 9-30-2018.
800k October
3.2 million November
5-6 million December
total= 31.86-32.86=18.76-19.76 million for 2018.
drinkandswim said:
Per Nintendo sales figures 22.86 million as of 9-30-2018. 800k October 3.2 million November 5-6 million December total= 31.86-32.86=18.76-19.76 million for 2018. |
You are mixing shipped and sold numbers, use one or the other.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
You are mixing shipped and sold numbers, use one or the other. |
Is VG Chartz shipped or sold?
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