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colafitte on 09 January 2019
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zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

And if we put the same growth for USA, 20-25% (from 4'9M from 2017) Switch will end with 5'9-6'1M in 2018, meaning Switch sold 2'1-2'3M in December which is in line for what insiders are expecting for the month in December NPD.

We know Japan was just around 100K more than in 2017 so is going to be flat, but if we apply 25% growth for the rest of the world:

13'1M sold in 2017 (according to VGC) -3'5M in Japan = 9'7M in the rest of the world

25% growth of that 9'7 is 12'1M. If we sum to that number the 3'6M sales from Japan......15'7M. It's not an accurate number of course, most probably it will be something more, but we can start seeing what the final numbers worldwide are going to be...

To reach 16'5M worldiwde it needs a 35% growth YOY in ROTW, and to reach 17'5M it needs a 45% growth YOY in ROTW. 

Some RotW countries should have much larger growth due to releasing later. For example, Argentina got it in August 2017, Taiwan/S. Korea in Decemeber 2017, Turkey in July 2018.

In this case i exposed, ROTW is everything not Japan, so USA, UK, France, Germany, Asia, Africa, South America, etc.....

Countries like Argentina, Turkey or S Korea could grow 100% and still not be enough because in this case, US, UK, France are 80-90% of the sales of this particular ROTW, and if those countries growth are just 20-25%, it's impossible the rest could make the difference.

Switch is selling really good, even better than PS4, in USA, JP, most of Europe,... but somewhere around the world PS4 is making a huge difference that Switch and XBO can't match.

I expected myself 16'3M precisely is some other thread, so I expect more than that 15'7M number but selling more than 16'5M worldwide is going to be really difficult if all of this i'm saying is true.