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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

PAOerfulone said:
xMetroid said:

You do realize black friday is all about deals ? 

Switch was still 300$ but with a game while PS4 was 200$ with a game or something. It doens't take rocket science to know people will jump on the bigger deal. 

Not cause it's 5 years old that it won't perform on sale driven holidays. That 5 years handicap will hit once we have the december numbers, i'm sure Switch will be leading by a very comfortable margin. And again, PS4 is down YoY while having better first party this year, so yes, it's clearly getting old. I think it will take a moderate hit next year as i don't see them having other big system sellers like a Goty/Spiderman/Monster Hunter.

 

Also, Nintendo never had huge numbers during black friday, these Switch numbers are insane for them and blew out the best 3DS ones. So yes, this is a big achievement for the Switch.

In the system seller category, they'll have Kingdom Hearts 3 and maybe Last of Us 2, but I agree.
This Black Friday, Sony was basically selling the system at $140 (less than half its MSRP) plus one of their biggest and best selling exclusives, which was also their most recent one. And while it definitely had the results they were hoping for (~1.09 million increase. The system's biggest one yet for Black Friday), it was still below last year and now we're going to see a pretty steep drop. The PS4's best years are behind it. Kingdom Hearts 3 may help it be flat YoY or slightly up in January and February, but from March onward I think we're going to see a noticeable and obvious decline. Nothing too drastic, but its baseline will likely be at the same level or slightly above what it was in 2014. 

KH3 isn't really a system seller tho, this franchise isn't pulling that much number anymore and with all the ports the PS4 had i'm sure the fans are already on the console. I don't think big exclusives will come next year, maybe tlou 2 but idk, it won't beat 2018 (which is still down yoy even with a better year than 2017).

Also, we will start having more rumors and talks about next generation which can block a lot of potential sales.



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According to Benji, Switch is currently leading by a huge margin in December and PS4 is doing poorly.



abronn627 said:
zorg1000 said:

It baffles me that people still think AAA ports are what determines the success/failure of Nintendo platforms.

What baffles me is how the indies and smaller budgets games are just completely ignored.

Because no one spends $299 or $199 to buy an indie or smaller budget game.

Those are not the games you see advertised on tv. Indies and smaller budget games tend to sell more to a preexisting and entrenched userbase. It baffles me you don't know that. 



zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

Ignoring AAA ports then.

Will Nintendo really keep on supporting the Switch long term? Or will they move on to their next console after 4.5 years?

I'm not sure how that's relevant to my post.

I clearly said ignoring AAA ports, and started a new conversation with the rest of your post...

So what determines the success/ failure of Nintendo platforms? Clearly it is games, and without AAA ports then we have original ip, Nintendo games and Nintendo support. If we are left with that then Nintendo has to keep on supporting.



Intrinsic said: 
flashfire926 said:

Yes, the first party games alone can carry this to 80 million. You think ports of Skyrim and Fifa is whats selling the switch? You're mistaken.

Lets be honest here then....... how many nintendo consles (that aren't handhelds) has sold more than up to r more than 80M?

One.

And that one wasn't selling for "the games" it was selling simply for what it was; motion controls and some sort of cultural shift. Evident in what happened with the WiiU when a nintendo home console was asked to sell for nothing but the games.

But lets look at the handhelds.... As i have already explained, the world we live in today is very different from the world where those handhelds sold upwards of 70M. Again evident by what happened with the 3ds.

So yes..... I don't think 3rd party games sell nintendo hardware. And thats my point. I d not believe that nintendo IPs alone will take the console to 80M. Because it never has. Nintendo platforms always sell because they create a market and claim it for themselves. Thats always been their way. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Everytime they have tried competing in the same market with anyone else (or one they didnt pretty much create)they have lost. 

So the real question is that is this hybrid console thin that new market? And how big is it? This is why its hard making comparisons of nintendo platforms and how well they did in the past; they all usually bring something different to the table. But we can compare form factors though. There are really only like 15 to 20M die hard nintendo fans out there. People that will buy a nintendo platform no matter what. Probably a lot less really. Going off the performance of the WiiU. So the NS will sell not because of nintendo games (people just end up buying those after they have bought into whatever new form factor nintendo is pushing) but rather sell on the novelty of its hybrid nature. 

And does anyone here (myself included) really know how big a market that is? 

Doesnt matter. Still gonna reach 80 million without a doubt. I'll bet on it. Its tracking ahead of the 3DS by a good margin, and will never fall behind it, so it get to 80M off that alone.

Yes motion control is what sold the wii. However it was pushed by nintendo's games itself. Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mariokart, Smash Brawl, Galaxy, etc. Wii Sports and Fit in particular, the wii wouldnt have been such a success without them.

Wii U was horribly botched with bad marketing and a confusing name that made it seem like some tablet add-on. It didnt help the casual market migrated to mobile, either.

The difference with the Switch is that we're seeing a unified first party that when are combined, can absolutely do 80 million without a doubt. Keep in mind this is the first home console with mainline pokemon on it, something that will sell north of 15 million copies (we just saw a taste of whats to come with lets go). 



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

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Switch did have 2 biggest third party games in this generation and those are Fortnite and Minecraft.

Fortnite+MK11+CRT+Doom Eternal+Bayonetta 3+Marvel UA3+Yoshi+Animal Crossing+Fire Emblem 3 houses+Town(Gamefreak RPG)+NSBUD+MP4+Mainline Pokemon Game = Switch has 2019 in a lock.



Even with the next gen consoles, don't forget that the Switch will also be getting third party exclusives



LGBTDBZBBQ said:
According to Benji, Switch is currently leading by a huge margin in December and PS4 is doing poorly.

He never said PS4 is doing poorly....please, if you're going to quote someone else, do it correctly. He said Switch is leading by a huge margin, nothing else. PS4 and XBO could still sell 1M which should be considered "fine" and Switch still lead by "a huge margin" if it sell 2M, for example.



Intrinsic said:
Agente42 said:

Nintendoom again? Each generation has appropriate rules. The new generation has begun and the Switch already has more than 20 million ahead of Sony and Microsoft. We need know better about the new Sony and Microsoft consoles.

This is not nintend doom. And its unfortunate that if spoken against the viability f the platform, no matter how constructive it wuold be taken as such. I have said before I expect the switch t do well. I expect it to do at least 60M. Thats not doom when that puts it along their best selling consoles.

We already know exactly what the next sony/ms consoles will bring to the table. Its the same thing they have done for the last 4 generations. Same way we know nintendo no longer competes in using that same business model.

You guys have t make up your minds abut the NS, so now you are saying its a 9th gen console and as such already 20M ahead or is it a very late 8th gen console. I was of the impression it was n 8th gen console. 

zorg1000 said:

Right now it is positioned as a home console that can be taken on the go since it costs a similar amount and can handle a decent amount of PS4/XBO games. But what about 3 years from now?

Will it still be marketed that way or will they adapt? Will it have a couple price cuts and revisions and start to be positioned more as a handheld that can hook up to a TV?

Will a hypothetical $199 Switch Mini really be affected by $399-499 home consoles? Were GB/GBA/DS/3DS affected negatively by the far stronger and more expensive home consoles from Sega/Sony/Microsoft?

You question whether or not Switch can reach 80 million but seem to ignore that 3/4 of their handhelds accomplished that while the 4th will only end up a few million short of that mark.

And you hit the nail on the head. Portable home console versus dockable portable console. 

I see it as a jack f all and master of non. Which ultimately I feel will affect it. As a home console, the time is coming that the games people play at home simply will not run on it. And all that will be had are nintendo games. But how may nintendo home consoles have ever sold more than 50M riding primarily on nintendo games? 

As a handheld.... look at the 3DS. There is a reason nintendo sought out to do more with the NS than just make  handheld. They were smart enough to see that in the present day and age its near impossible to be just a handheld device when any $50 7 inch tablet running android can not just do more and more appeal than your hand held. The rise of cheap tablets and super basic games n the app store has pretty much sucked out that super casual crowd nintendo sold their handhelds to primarily.

I guess we will see where it goes.

flashfire926 said:

Yes, the first party games alone can carry this to 80 million. You think ports of Skyrim and Fifa is whats selling the switch? You're mistaken.

Lets be honest here then....... how many nintendo consles (that aren't handhelds) has sold more than up to r more than 80M?

One.

And that one wasn't selling for "the games" it was selling simply for what it was; motion controls and some sort of cultural shift. Evident in what happened with the WiiU when a nintendo home console was asked to sell for nothing but the games.

But lets look at the handhelds.... As i have already explained, the world we live in today is very different from the world where those handhelds sold upwards of 70M. Again evident by what happened with the 3ds.

So yes..... I don't think 3rd party games sell nintendo hardware. And thats my point. I d not believe that nintendo IPs alone will take the console to 80M. Because it never has. Nintendo platforms always sell because they create a market and claim it for themselves. Thats always been their way. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Everytime they have tried competing in the same market with anyone else (or one they didnt pretty much create)they have lost. 

So the real question is that is this hybrid console thin that new market? And how big is it? This is why its hard making comparisons of nintendo platforms and how well they did in the past; they all usually bring something different to the table. But we can compare form factors though. There are really only like 15 to 20M die hard nintendo fans out there. People that will buy a nintendo platform no matter what. Probably a lot less really. Going off the performance of the WiiU. So the NS will sell not because of nintendo games (people just end up buying those after they have bought into whatever new form factor nintendo is pushing) but rather sell on the novelty of its hybrid nature. 

And does anyone here (myself included) really know how big a market that is? 

zorg1000 said:

It baffles me that people still think AAA ports are what determines the success/failure of Nintendo platforms

No... thats not what I a saying at all.

So you think Switch will only sell as much as 3DS despite handily outperforming it thus far?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

LGBTDBZBBQ said:
According to Benji, Switch is currently leading by a huge margin in December and PS4 is doing poorly.

Yeah that's not what he said...