November NPD 2018 Thread

[flashfire926]

Intrinsic said: 

flashfire926 said:

Yes, the first party games alone can carry this to 80 million. You think ports of Skyrim and Fifa is whats selling the switch? You're mistaken.

Lets be honest here then....... how many nintendo consles (that aren't handhelds) has sold more than up to r more than 80M?

One.

And that one wasn't selling for "the games" it was selling simply for what it was; motion controls and some sort of cultural shift. Evident in what happened with the WiiU when a nintendo home console was asked to sell for nothing but the games.

But lets look at the handhelds.... As i have already explained, the world we live in today is very different from the world where those handhelds sold upwards of 70M. Again evident by what happened with the 3ds.

So yes..... I don't think 3rd party games sell nintendo hardware. And thats my point. I d not believe that nintendo IPs alone will take the console to 80M. Because it never has. Nintendo platforms always sell because they create a market and claim it for themselves. Thats always been their way. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Everytime they have tried competing in the same market with anyone else (or one they didnt pretty much create)they have lost. 

So the real question is that is this hybrid console thin that new market? And how big is it? This is why its hard making comparisons of nintendo platforms and how well they did in the past; they all usually bring something different to the table. But we can compare form factors though. There are really only like 15 to 20M die hard nintendo fans out there. People that will buy a nintendo platform no matter what. Probably a lot less really. Going off the performance of the WiiU. So the NS will sell not because of nintendo games (people just end up buying those after they have bought into whatever new form factor nintendo is pushing) but rather sell on the novelty of its hybrid nature. 

And does anyone here (myself included) really know how big a market that is? 

Doesnt matter. Still gonna reach 80 million without a doubt. I'll bet on it. Its tracking ahead of the 3DS by a good margin, and will never fall behind it, so it get to 80M off that alone.

Yes motion control is what sold the wii. However it was pushed by nintendo's games itself. Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mariokart, Smash Brawl, Galaxy, etc. Wii Sports and Fit in particular, the wii wouldnt have been such a success without them.

Wii U was horribly botched with bad marketing and a confusing name that made it seem like some tablet add-on. It didnt help the casual market migrated to mobile, either.

The difference with the Switch is that we're seeing a unified first party that when are combined, can absolutely do 80 million without a doubt. Keep in mind this is the first home console with mainline pokemon on it, something that will sell north of 15 million copies (we just saw a taste of whats to come with lets go).