November NPD 2018 Thread

[zorg1000]

Intrinsic said:

Agente42 said:

Nintendoom again? Each generation has appropriate rules. The new generation has begun and the Switch already has more than 20 million ahead of Sony and Microsoft. We need know better about the new Sony and Microsoft consoles.

This is not nintend doom. And its unfortunate that if spoken against the viability f the platform, no matter how constructive it wuold be taken as such. I have said before I expect the switch t do well. I expect it to do at least 60M. Thats not doom when that puts it along their best selling consoles.

We already know exactly what the next sony/ms consoles will bring to the table. Its the same thing they have done for the last 4 generations. Same way we know nintendo no longer competes in using that same business model.

You guys have t make up your minds abut the NS, so now you are saying its a 9th gen console and as such already 20M ahead or is it a very late 8th gen console. I was of the impression it was n 8th gen console. 

zorg1000 said:

Right now it is positioned as a home console that can be taken on the go since it costs a similar amount and can handle a decent amount of PS4/XBO games. But what about 3 years from now?

Will it still be marketed that way or will they adapt? Will it have a couple price cuts and revisions and start to be positioned more as a handheld that can hook up to a TV?

Will a hypothetical $199 Switch Mini really be affected by $399-499 home consoles? Were GB/GBA/DS/3DS affected negatively by the far stronger and more expensive home consoles from Sega/Sony/Microsoft?

You question whether or not Switch can reach 80 million but seem to ignore that 3/4 of their handhelds accomplished that while the 4th will only end up a few million short of that mark.

And you hit the nail on the head. Portable home console versus dockable portable console. 

I see it as a jack f all and master of non. Which ultimately I feel will affect it. As a home console, the time is coming that the games people play at home simply will not run on it. And all that will be had are nintendo games. But how may nintendo home consoles have ever sold more than 50M riding primarily on nintendo games? 

As a handheld.... look at the 3DS. There is a reason nintendo sought out to do more with the NS than just make  handheld. They were smart enough to see that in the present day and age its near impossible to be just a handheld device when any $50 7 inch tablet running android can not just do more and more appeal than your hand held. The rise of cheap tablets and super basic games n the app store has pretty much sucked out that super casual crowd nintendo sold their handhelds to primarily.

I guess we will see where it goes.

flashfire926 said:

Yes, the first party games alone can carry this to 80 million. You think ports of Skyrim and Fifa is whats selling the switch? You're mistaken.

Lets be honest here then....... how many nintendo consles (that aren't handhelds) has sold more than up to r more than 80M?

One.

And that one wasn't selling for "the games" it was selling simply for what it was; motion controls and some sort of cultural shift. Evident in what happened with the WiiU when a nintendo home console was asked to sell for nothing but the games.

But lets look at the handhelds.... As i have already explained, the world we live in today is very different from the world where those handhelds sold upwards of 70M. Again evident by what happened with the 3ds.

So yes..... I don't think 3rd party games sell nintendo hardware. And thats my point. I d not believe that nintendo IPs alone will take the console to 80M. Because it never has. Nintendo platforms always sell because they create a market and claim it for themselves. Thats always been their way. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Everytime they have tried competing in the same market with anyone else (or one they didnt pretty much create)they have lost. 

So the real question is that is this hybrid console thin that new market? And how big is it? This is why its hard making comparisons of nintendo platforms and how well they did in the past; they all usually bring something different to the table. But we can compare form factors though. There are really only like 15 to 20M die hard nintendo fans out there. People that will buy a nintendo platform no matter what. Probably a lot less really. Going off the performance of the WiiU. So the NS will sell not because of nintendo games (people just end up buying those after they have bought into whatever new form factor nintendo is pushing) but rather sell on the novelty of its hybrid nature. 

And does anyone here (myself included) really know how big a market that is? 

zorg1000 said:

It baffles me that people still think AAA ports are what determines the success/failure of Nintendo platforms

No... thats not what I a saying at all.

So you think Switch will only sell as much as 3DS despite handily outperforming it thus far?