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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

Replicant said:

But I don't think I've seen anyone believe that PS4 would be up in 2019 from 2018 (GribbleGrunger was being sarcastic).

PS4 being down YOY from now on shouldn't be a huge surprise.

I know he was joking xD, and I'm not talking about 2019 but like I said there really were threads were lots of people expected PS4 to be flat or up this year, like this one: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=233891&page=1

I just took a quick look at the first 2 pages, and more than half of predictions had PS4 mostly up (or flat) this year.

Last edited by LipeJJ - on 15 December 2018

Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

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Nate4Drake said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
Switch is going to win in Japan(XD) and the US at the end.

I understand your dreams, but I think PS4 will win everywhere apart from Japan, which is the smallest and least important market nowdays.

 And Europe, well, Sony Land for ever, without any competition.

US is a toss up. Either can win. Only guarantees are japan (nintendo) and UK (sony)



Shadow1980 said:

More charts

Great work as always bro!

Miyamotoo said:

Yeah, Switch with just current confirmed lineup of Nintendo games, very possible revision and most likely price put, should have quite stronger next year in sales than did this year.

For PS4 and XB1 is expected they will be down in any case, not just they will in its 6. year on market, but because also next year will start heavy talk about PS5/XB2.
Saying that PS4 is done great in its 5. year market and XB1 also had great year compared to some past years, both consoles will also have solid 2019. years even if most likely will YoY down in any case.

Yeah.... earlier this year I said I expected the PS4 to sell around 18M units which meant it would be down from the 20M it sold lat year by around 2M. And in 2019 I expect it to be down from this year by about 2M - 3M and sell around 15M to 16M units. Which funny enough puts it at around 105M by the end f next year....... 

Cool thing about all this is my prediction for how much it would sell before the PS5 was released was 110M........ this was before it had that 20M selling year.



LipeJJ said:

That's probably because at the beginning of the year there were discussions on whether PS4 would be up or down this year, and lots of people believed it could be up and defended it using the argument that this year would have a much better first party and exclusive line up. 

I don't think or recall that to be the case.

From what I remember at the start of this year lots of people believed that the PS4 could have a flat or better year than 2017 in 2018

ONLY IF AT THE START OF 2018 THE PRICE WAS PERMANENTLY DROPPED TO $199

This was shortly after we had seen what a $199 PS4 could do n the market. But the general consensus was that if there was no price drop then it would be down. After its january number when it was already being down YOY I even went as far as say I hope it performs worse so that would in turn push sony to make that price drop. Unfortunately, while it did perform worse for most of the year, it apparently wasn't bad enough to concern sony.



LipeJJ said:
Replicant said:

But I don't think I've seen anyone believe that PS4 would be up in 2019 from 2018 (GribbleGrunger was being sarcastic).

PS4 being down YOY from now on shouldn't be a huge surprise.

I know he was joking xD, and I'm not talking about 2019 but like I said there really were threads were lots of people expected PS4 to be flat or up this year, like this one: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=233891&page=1

I just took a quick look at the first 2 pages, and more than half of predictions had PS4 mostly up (or flat) this year.

And in that thread I predicted the PS4 to do 18M. and 17M for the switch.

From lancing through that thread now a lot were actually saying PS4 would be down and in some cases where it was said to be flat or better a potential price cut was cited.

I mean of course there would be those saying it would be way better and stuff like there were some saying the NS would outsell the PS4 this year and all that...... but you shouldn't take stuff like that seriously.



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tbone51 said:
Nate4Drake said:

I understand your dreams, but I think PS4 will win everywhere apart from Japan, which is the smallest and least important market nowdays.

 And Europe, well, Sony Land for ever, without any competition.

US is a toss up. Either can win. Only guarantees are japan (nintendo) and UK (sony)

While a few countries in Europe might (and that's a might) be in favor of Nintendo Europe as a whole, not just the UK is definately Sony's to lose. They are far ahead as of right now.

With that said, calling Japan which is the second largest market in the world for smallest and least important like Nate did, is just a silly thing to do.



So sony appears with a super slim ps4 or a ps4 pro slim or microsoft comes up with a leaner xbox and the whole projection goes through space.
These analysts are as certain as fortune tellers, change at every hour of opinion, and yet come out as omnipotent beings.



Replicant said:

I can actually see Switch in December outselling PS4 by more than the 662.000 needed to steal the year.

January:
PS4: ~254,000
XB1: ~235,000
Switch: ~270,000

February:
PS4: ~363,000
XB1: ~310,000
Switch: ~279,000

March:
PS4: ~354,000
XB1: ~299,000
Switch: ~308,000

April:
PS4: ~326,000
XB1: ~134,000
Switch: ~171,000

May:
PS4: ~221,000
XB1: ~144,000
Switch: ~166,000

June:
PS4: ~375,000
XB1: ~240,000
Switch: ~325,000

July:
PS4: ~187,000
XB1: ~152,000
Switch: ~263,000

August:
PS4: ~197,000
XB1: ~162,000
Switch: ~203,000

September:
PS4: ~425,000
XB1: ~175,000
Switch: ~260,000

October:
PS4: ~340,000
XB1: ~226,000
Switch: ~255,000

November:
PS4: ~1,480,000
XB1: ~1,340,000
Switch: ~1,360,000

2018:
PS4: ~4,522,000
XB1: ~3,417,000
Switch: ~3,860,000

WW it will be a much harsher battle, and 20M still seems hard.

colafitte said:

What's the problem with Benji?, he barely is critizised here, in fact, his numbers are most used here to discuss sales. I don't understand why he points the finger in this forum with such desdain. VGC is still the best site to discuss sales in my opinion. If he wants to find people that will say something awful to him, he will find them always because this is the internet, and people say everything without repercusions. We here discuss everything, even Benji leaks if needed.

I find him very reasonable and he's usually right, so i really don't understand the problem. If it is because some of us dediced to trust more Nintendo official PR, well, sorry then, but it was the correct thing to do, even if it was wrong. I won't apologize for that. If he ended being right, good for him and good for us because that way we could reach the truth of the numbers more accurately.

For my part I'll stay discussing here, while i keep attention to everything Benji says because both are fun and very useful to know about selling numbers.

 

Edit: So now i see, this is because two posters discussed the credibility of Benji in this thread before the leaks, even though there were as many or more who defended him. So that's why this site is a shithole....mmm.

That is because usually NPD leakers on ERA are divas. It isn't the first time we have this, aquamarine and others made similar behaviours. Even "prohibiting" numbers to be posted on VGC. Like how someone that breaks the NDA they signed have any high ground to complain on others leaking to other places?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
 

That is because usually NPD leakers on ERA are divas. It isn't the first time we have this, aquamarine and others made similar behaviours. Even "prohibiting" numbers to be posted on VGC. Like how someone that breaks the NDA they signed have any high ground to complain on others leaking to other places?

He has the right to not like what was said about him here, but he had no right to insult every member of this forum for something EVERY GAMING FORUM can be accused of. It was totally inapropiate, and if i dare to say, in a very coward manner, using a way more popular forum to put people against this forum. He probably doesn't like to fight their numbers against VGC because it goes against his interests for his twiter account popularity, and he knows his numbers are more close to the official numbers, so he is more reliable to get real numbers (most people here agree on that), but VGC never lied about its numbers. VGC numbers are not official, they're just the work of using current info to bring a closer aproximation of what the actual numbers of gaming sales are. VGC makes continually adjustments to get close to official data every time now and then. No one here says that you have to trust VGC numbers against any other media or info available for gaming selling numbers.

And VGC forums, and its members have way more and better discussions about sales that what i see in other sites. VGC doesn't deserve such behavior from NPD leakers or other gaming forum members. Mat Piscatella and Benji are very valuable posters in Resetera, but they not only give numbers, they give opinions too. So, the moment they start doing that, people will react always. Compared to ZhugeEX, he express his opinions in forums at a minimum giving mostly only facts and numbers, so almost nobody discuss anything he says. That's how gaming forum works. They're going to be always people that are against what you said or think, and if they're not...., well, it doesn't talk very well about diverstiy of opinions and free speech then.



I'm laughing with the gloom and doom for PS4 and X1, how much doom reaching 100M is?
Also 25M sales for Switch in 2019 is something very hard to achieve.
Plus December will be funny to see when we have predictions of Switch under 1.4 and over 2M... one of those can be very wrong.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."