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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

Welfare said:
And people STILL want to try and throw mud on Benji. Get over yourselves.

I thought it was silly too, his insights have been great and on the mark most of the time.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Ryng_Tolu said:
Miyamotoo said:

So PS4 currently leads for 670k,

Switch should not have any problem taking year, Switch should will probably have at least around 2m December, and PS4 will probably be below 1.2m.

both PS4 and XB1 will sell less than one million in December.

 

Switch will very likely surpass 2 million.

Honestly I have my doubts. Last year it did around 1.5M. And those december sales were including cyber monday that went into november this year.

But it has smash this year. I am peing it to do around 1.8M to 2M fr december but not over that.

I also expect both the PS4 and XB1 to be below 1M. Unless sony does another $199 promotion. Which I don't see happening 



Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

 So it funny to use percentage, OK, then we will use raw numbers, 775k vs 1350k, 1550 vs 1470k or 1400k vs 1340k, tell me what is most impressive result compared to last year?

PS4 is 5 years old console, but 5 years old console that was selling great this year and on pair or better compared to last year, also last month had much stronger sales than last year, and now in November had great deal for $199 with one great game.

Errrrr....... 

The PS4 has been trending down YOY by about 10% all year round. Its performance in november is still reflective of that. It managed like one r two months in the entire year so far better than last year. Thats called bucking the trend not setting a precedent. 

The NS has been trending upwards YOY all year. And from nintendo PR was aready expected to be way up this year. You can look at improvements all you want' but that is also expected of a console that is going into its second year (and yes, it had its own deals too) and it doesn't change that it still was the second best selling console.

Again..... the PS4 is 5yrs old.

And lets make this simple....

PS4 first november (2014) 841k

PS4 second november (2015) 1539k (85% YOY increase)

So the NS is tracking and doing what its expected to be doing. And nothing that is out of the ordinary for a good selling console. 

That's quite inaccurate, totals Jan-Oct 2018:

PS4: 3048K (+14% YoY)

NSW: 2505K (-4% YoY)

XB1: 2083K (+35% YoY)

So like you can see both PS4 and XB1 were YoY up until this month while Switch was YoY down, so no, this November is not reflective of result until now.

 

I dont talking about what's expected or not, that wasn't my point at all, I made you reply to you because you wrote LOL when I wrote "Switch is biggest winner of this month".



Miyamotoo said:
Intrinsic said:

Errrrr....... 

The PS4 has been trending down YOY by about 10% all year round. Its performance in november is still reflective of that. It managed like one r two months in the entire year so far better than last year. Thats called bucking the trend not setting a precedent. 

The NS has been trending upwards YOY all year. And from nintendo PR was aready expected to be way up this year. You can look at improvements all you want' but that is also expected of a console that is going into its second year (and yes, it had its own deals too) and it doesn't change that it still was the second best selling console.

Again..... the PS4 is 5yrs old.

And lets make this simple....

PS4 first november (2014) 841k

PS4 second november (2015) 1539k (85% YOY increase)

So the NS is tracking and doing what its expected to be doing. And nothing that is out of the ordinary for a good selling console. 

That's quite inaccurate, totals Jan-Oct 2018:

PS4: 3048K (+14% YoY)

NSW: 2505K (-4% YoY)

XB1: 2083K (+35% YoY)

So like you can see both PS4 and XB1 were YoY up until this month while Switch was YoY down, so no, this November is not reflective of result until now.

 

I dont talking about what's expected or not, that wasn't my point at all, I made you reply to you because you wrote LOL when I wrote "Switch is biggest winner of this month".

So when its convenient we are only looking at the entire year? Out of those 10 months the PS4 was down YOY for around 7 of them. Thats a trend. The odd month or two it was up is aka bucking the trend. It just happened to have been up by a lot those months which is why its whole year performance looks good. It doesn't change that its been "trending" downwards.

Be honest here..... ut of those 10 months how many did NS perform better for? my guess woould be more than 5 of them? Which even though YOY it was down by 4% it has been trending upwards all year.

But ok... for whatever its worth.... NS is the biggest winner this month. Though technically if thats how you want to look at it what you really should be saying is that its the only winner this month. Cause all the others are not even up but rather down YOY. 

 

So.... yay?



Miyamotoo said:
Intrinsic said:

Biggest winner? lol...... I think everyone expected the PS4/XB1 to be down YOY. They are ver 5yrs old after all. That they are only down by 13% and 3% is what I find surprising. 

it did as it was expected to do. I guess you were right and I should have left my prediction at 1.3M for the switch instead of dropping it by 100k.

Yeah, off course, it sold 75% better compared to last year without any price cut offcourse its biggest winner. Despite PS4/XB4 are 5 years old consoles they are doing great hole year (I mean PS4 just last month has much stronger month than it did last year), and both this year had great deals for Black Friday and huge game launch.

It was expected that Switch will do around 1.3m, but that doesnt make numbers that Switch done less impressive.

It had impressive deals this year. The mario Kart $299  + $50 Gift cards deal. That's like a $100 price cut.



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tbone51 said:
Results are in


Switch: 1360K
PS4: 1480K
XBO: 1340K

Looks like Switch sold 400,000 to 500,000 in 5 days! /jk

Everything did fine, Switch did really amazing without a real price cut (only value added bundles), but the one that really surprised me is xbox one. Good on it. 



 

Acevil said:
tbone51 said:
Results are in


Switch: 1360K
PS4: 1480K
XBO: 1340K

Looks like Switch sold 400,000 to 500,000 in 5 days! /jk

Everything did fine, Switch did really amazing without a real price cut (only value added bundles), but the one that really surprised me is xbox one. Good on it. 

Ya I thought Xbox would be down quite a bit more than that, impressive.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Miyamotoo said:
zorg1000 said:

YTD

PS4-4.52m

NSW-3.85m

XBO-3.44m

So PS4 currently leads for 670k,

Switch should not have any problem taking year, Switch should will probably have at least around 2m December, and PS4 will probably be below 1.2m.

I don't know about that. Last year Switch had the huge sales from Cyber Monday to boost its sales by a lot.  This year CM was included in Nov.  I see it doing 1.4M-1.6M.  PS4 will probably be around 1M, unless Sony does some kind of deal for Dec. I think Sony will keep the year, but just barely.

WhatATimeToBeAlive said: 
Looks like SONY still has some serious PS4 stock issues. Or they only wanted to sell that many for 200$. Still managed to win.

Looks like they put out just enough to win the month by a comfortable margin. I wonder if this has to do with focusing on profit, or they are scaling PS4 production down slightly. They originally only predicted 17M (or was it 16M?) shipped this FY.  They had to up it to 17.5M recently, and may actually end up with 18M shipped.

RolStoppable said: 
What a pleasant surprise. Today I went on the internet with high hopes and was satisfied to see that the Los Angeles Chargers won last night.

But man, those 3DS sales are much lower than I expected. I guess every kid that is old enough to name what Nintendo console they want says Switch, plus all the parents are able to afford such a purchase, thanks to Trump's positive effect on the economy.

She had a good run. Next year will probably be her last.



Acevil said:
tbone51 said:
Results are in


Switch: 1360K
PS4: 1480K
XBO: 1340K

Looks like Switch sold 400,000 to 500,000 in 5 days! /jk

Everything did fine, Switch did really amazing without a real price cut (only value added bundles), but the one that really surprised me is xbox one. Good on it. 

lol.... 

we did say it could happen though. 

Being that the PR said MORE than 8.2M with 5 days left and that these numbers aren't 100% accurate.... we can confidently say it sold between 300k - 400k in those last 5 days. Which isn't shocking when you think of a 1.3M selling month. For all we know in its first two weeks of the month it only sold around 400k or whatever it typically sells weekly each month then its sales shot up for BF and CM and was sustained a bit through those last 5 days.

And yes..... I think the real shocker here is the XB1. I think very few on this site expected it to do so well.



thismeintiel said:
Miyamotoo said:

So PS4 currently leads for 670k,

Switch should not have any problem taking year, Switch should will probably have at least around 2m December, and PS4 will probably be below 1.2m.

I don't know about that. Last year Switch had the huge sales from Cyber Monday to boost its sales by a lot.  This year CM was included in Nov.  I see it doing 1.4M-1.6M.  PS4 will probably be around 1M, unless Sony does some kind of deal for Dec. I think Sony will keep the year, but just barely.

WhatATimeToBeAlive said: 
Looks like SONY still has some serious PS4 stock issues. Or they only wanted to sell that many for 200$. Still managed to win.

Looks like they put out just enough to win the month by a comfortable margin. I wonder if this has to do with focusing on profit, or they are scaling PS4 production down slightly. They originally only predicted 17M (or was it 16M?) shipped this FY.  They had to up it to 17.5M recently, and may actually end up with 18M shipped.

RolStoppable said: 
What a pleasant surprise. Today I went on the internet with high hopes and was satisfied to see that the Los Angeles Chargers won last night.

But man, those 3DS sales are much lower than I expected. I guess every kid that is old enough to name what Nintendo console they want says Switch, plus all the parents are able to afford such a purchase, thanks to Trump's positive effect on the economy.

She had a good run. Next year will probably be her last.

I think some of you are overestimating Cyber Monday being in the November tracking period when it comes to Switch, I dont think it's going to make a huge difference.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.