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Forums - Sales Discussion - Worldwide Charts Yearly Total - November 3rd

My bad



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

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SKMBlake said:
Intrinsic said:

Ps4 is most likely winning November. S by the end of November that gap can be around 3.5M.

Real question here is by how much is the Switch expected to win December?

Will it sell 500k/1M/2M MORE units than whatever the PS4 sells? 

It has its biggest game of the year (and one of the biggest game of the console ever) VS no big release in december for the PS4 so I think there will be a great gap between them. There were already a gap last year with a not-that-big game (Xenoblade 2).

Doesn't really matter what it has or doesn't. We aren't just talking about how well it will sell, but rather how much more it will sell over the PS4 worldwide. How big is smash? Whatever the case is it big enough to make the NS outsell the PS4 by 1M or 2M worldwide?

To put things into perspective..... say the PS4 sells 2M worldwide in all of december. That would mean you are expecting the NS to sell 3M - 4M. 

I just don't see that being the case. This is simply because 2M in sales is still very good. The PS4 is still putting up great numbers so for the NS to make any sort of dent in the 2018 year total it would have to do phenomenal numbers. I just don't see that happening.

Maybe next year when/if the PS4 is selling like the XB1 this year. 



Intrinsic said:
SKMBlake said:

It has its biggest game of the year (and one of the biggest game of the console ever) VS no big release in december for the PS4 so I think there will be a great gap between them. There were already a gap last year with a not-that-big game (Xenoblade 2).

Doesn't really matter what it has or doesn't. We aren't just talking about how well it will sell, but rather how much more it will sell over the PS4 worldwide. How big is smash? Whatever the case is it big enough to make the NS outsell the PS4 by 1M or 2M worldwide?

To put things into perspective..... say the PS4 sells 2M worldwide in all of december. That would mean you are expecting the NS to sell 3M - 4M. 

I just don't see that being the case. This is simply because 2M in sales is still very good. The PS4 is still putting up great numbers so for the NS to make any sort of dent in the 2018 year total it would have to do phenomenal numbers. I just don't see that happening.

Maybe next year when/if the PS4 is selling like the XB1 this year. 

Here is last year's December (last 5 weeks) according to this site.

PS4-4.01m

NSW-4.35m

I would assume PS4 will be down (PS4 has been down all year long) while NSW will be up (been up all year and Smash will move consoles).

How much they are up/down remains to be seen but I wouldn't be surprised to see numbers like this

PS4-3.7m

NSW-5.0m



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

@zorg1000: That was pretty much my point. The Switch already outsold the PS4 last year without a huge relase (Xenoblade isn't huge), there is no way it won't this year by a great margin



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

Doesn't really matter what it has or doesn't. We aren't just talking about how well it will sell, but rather how much more it will sell over the PS4 worldwide. How big is smash? Whatever the case is it big enough to make the NS outsell the PS4 by 1M or 2M worldwide?

To put things into perspective..... say the PS4 sells 2M worldwide in all of december. That would mean you are expecting the NS to sell 3M - 4M. 

I just don't see that being the case. This is simply because 2M in sales is still very good. The PS4 is still putting up great numbers so for the NS to make any sort of dent in the 2018 year total it would have to do phenomenal numbers. I just don't see that happening.

Maybe next year when/if the PS4 is selling like the XB1 this year. 

Here is last year's December (last 5 weeks) according to this site.

PS4-4.01m

NSW-4.35m

I would assume PS4 will be down (PS4 has been down all year long) while NSW will be up (been up all year and Smash will move consoles).

How much they are up/down remains to be seen but I wouldn't be surprised to see numbers like this

PS4-3.7m

NSW-5.0m

 

SKMBlake said:
@zorg1000: That was pretty much my point. The Switch already outsold the PS4 last year without a huge relase (Xenoblade isn't huge), there is no way it won't this year by a great margin

And you guys are missing my point.

I am not saying the switch won't outsell the PS4 in december. I am saying it won't be by enouggh to make a dent in the lead the PS4 has over it for 2018.

Zorg is estimating that the PS4 be down YOY by 400k and the switch be up YOY by 600k+.

Either way thats a difference of 1.3M in sales!!!

Meanwhile over the same period last year the switch only managed a difference of like 250k. So you guys are basically saying that coming from last year t this that difference is going to jump from 250k to over 1.3M???? No. I just don't see that happening this year. Especially when you consider that the PS4 has won the switch globally every single month this year and that cyber monday sales is added to november this year and not december like last year. 



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Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Here is last year's December (last 5 weeks) according to this site.

PS4-4.01m

NSW-4.35m

I would assume PS4 will be down (PS4 has been down all year long) while NSW will be up (been up all year and Smash will move consoles).

How much they are up/down remains to be seen but I wouldn't be surprised to see numbers like this

PS4-3.7m

NSW-5.0m

 

SKMBlake said:
@zorg1000: That was pretty much my point. The Switch already outsold the PS4 last year without a huge relase (Xenoblade isn't huge), there is no way it won't this year by a great margin

And you guys are missing my point.

I am not saying the switch won't outsell the PS4 in december. I am saying it won't be by enouggh to make a dent in the lead the PS4 has over it for 2018.

Zorg is estimating that the PS4 be down YOY by 400k and the switch be up YOY by 600k+.

Either way thats a difference of 1.3M in sales!!!

Meanwhile over the same period last year the switch only managed a difference of like 250k. So you guys are basically saying that coming from last year t this that difference is going to jump from 250k to over 1.3M???? No. I just don't see that happening this year. Especially when you consider that the PS4 has won the switch globally every single month this year and that cyber monday sales is added to november this year and not december like last year. 

I am well aware of what you are saying, your last post (the one I quoted) questioned whether or not Switch could close the gap by 1-2 million in December and I just outlined how that is feasible.

Let's take a look at it from another perspective. According to this site, PS4 is down ~14% YoY while NSW is up ~20%. If that remains the same for December than it will be

PS4-3.45m

NSW-5.22m



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.