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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Michael Pachter prediction for Switch hardware last FY number and next FY number

They're not gonna hit 20 mill, that said Patcher will never give Nintendo the benefit of the doubt on anything. The system is still selling about in line with the PS4 at the same point in its product cycle and he's saying they need to cut $100 off the price point. 



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LGBTDBZBBQ said:

Switch = 15.5m 

 

Clueless as always and his next prediction seems a little bit better 

Who said what ? What are the actual numbers ? I don't understand



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If I remember rightly Michael Pachter doesn't actually cover Nintendo for Wedbush ... he covers U.S. games companies. So a) he's not going to talk up a stock that he doesn't analyse and b) his contacts in the industry will tend to have a bullish view on U.S. companies and a bearish outlook on Japanese companies. When he talks about Nintendo it's always off-the-cuff on his YouTube shows ... in that context he's more of a provocateur than anything else.



He is right it'll miss Nintendo projections and he is right it is a handheld.
That said, selling as it is, why would it need a straight $100 cut so soon to enjoy good sales? It's already having it as pricey as it is.
He is tracing a comparision to 3DS early days just because of the price and not the actual sales.
Reality check? For Nintendo projections, yes. For the rest he is the one in need of that. As always.



Who is Patcher? .....



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So Wedbush is predicting 3 mill less than Nintendo, which would be 17 mill, correct?

17 million is still very much in line with what the PS4 shipped its second full fiscal year (17.7 mill).

35 million at that point is still a very healthy number. 



It's Michael Pachter, PACHTER, not Patcher, your illiterates in german :P



 

 

 

 

 

I love how the Ash guy says the Switch story is over because the Switch is *only* doing similar numbers to PS4 in a comparable period in its life (2015). Even if his 16 mil prediction came true (looking less likely as more chatter about holiday performance comes out), 33.8 mil is a very healthy number after only 25 months. The idea the system needs a 100 dollar price cut after selling 17 mil though - Pachter's prediction - is completely mental.

And the article and analysts are also blatantly ignoring positive occurances RIGHT NOW. Software is going to cruise past projections, Mario Party has substantially outperformed expectations, Pokemon Lets Go has sold very well and had a substantial impact on hardware sales, and Smash is the most preordered Switch game yet.

Articles like this are why these analysts and sites like Bloomberg come off as utterly out of touch.  I mean for goodness sake ALL of these predictions would have the Switch UP vs FY 2018!



Soundwave said:

So Wedbush is predicting 3 mill less than Nintendo, which would be 17 mill, correct?

17 million is still very much in line with what the PS4 shipped its second full fiscal year (17.7 mill).

35 million at that point is still a very healthy number. 

it definitely is a very healthy number, the main difference with PS4 probably is that 2y into launch there still were "PS4 has no gamez" memes (situation wasn't as bad as with the PS3 though), while pretty much every heavy hitter in the Nintendo catalogue will have seen a release on Switch at that point



Lafiel said:
Soundwave said:

So Wedbush is predicting 3 mill less than Nintendo, which would be 17 mill, correct?

17 million is still very much in line with what the PS4 shipped its second full fiscal year (17.7 mill).

35 million at that point is still a very healthy number. 

it definitely is a very healthy number, the main difference with PS4 probably is that 2y into launch there still were "PS4 has no gamez" memes (situation wasn't as bad as with the PS3 though), while pretty much every heavy hitter in the Nintendo catalogue will have seen a release on Switch at that point

One other important thing is that an entirely new generation will surely launch in less than 2 years, which will probably impact the Switch legs (not huge impact, but still).