http://www.gamepro.com/news.cfm?article_id=176248

Japanese Video Game Market

Get your fun in now, GamePro readers, because Japanese media giant Enterbrain predicts that 2008 is the best gaming is going to be for a while.

It's a peak. Get it?

The 2008 lineup for all systems looks pretty healthy now, but don't get used to it, says Japanese publishing giant Enterbrain Inc. After this year concludes with a fiery show of Gears of War 2, Metal Gear Solid 4 and, yes, even Wii Fit, it's all going to be downhill from there.

Sound a little far-fetched? You aren't alone on that one. Nevertheless, Enterbrain read the tea leaves and went out on a limb today, saying that sales of video game consoles and software will peak at 710.4 billion yen in 2008 and fall to 671.1 billion yen by 2010.

"The market is likely to contract as brisk demand for games consoles, such as the Wii from Nintendo Co and the PlayStation 3 from Sony Computer Entertainment Inc, will run its course," Enterbrain Inc said in a statement to Kyodo News.

Filling the void will be online games, which Enterbrain expects to grow to 320.5 billion yen in 2010. Impressive, but not quite as impressive as the nearly one trillion yen the entire industry will command by that time.

That's a lot of yen, but Enterbrain still felt it necessary to rain on the parade and predict a slide beginning next year. After Metal Gear Solid 4, Grand Theft Auto IV, and whatever Nintendo has planned for E3 launches this year, do you agree that there's going to be nothing but rough sailing afterwards?

Well this article was written on the Japanese video market. I made the thread title so it could attract more responses.

Not a chance, the seventh generation is just beginning. 2009 will definitely be bigger than 2008. Gaming might be going down hill in Japan though, but only Japan.

I doubt it.

The DS and Wii was Nintendo's response to a shrinking market in Japan and they have successfully brought new people to gaming.

Well if this does happen it will surely have repercussions for the global market.

I doubt it will though.

That's hard to say. Depends a lot from 2009 lineup Wii and the two handhelds get. Generally 2008 is when the big named games get their release, so 2009 wouldn't be a big year on that basis, but i'd expect 2010 being a better year than 2009.

a peak ???

u are talking about the Wii, aren't you ?

because, for the moment, I see no peak for the PS3 :''((

A plateau is a flat area of high altitude. The word you were looking for is more likely to be ocean floor.

I agree that the Japanese market is showing some worrying signs, but the success of the Wii and DS is going to keep anything even distantly resembling a crash from occuring. The difference to last gen is notable, and a number of developers are probably going to go out of business when they fail to adapt, but that's how the free market works.