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Forums - Sales - Pachter Predicts March Sales - 700k Wii! 700k DS!

gebx on 14 April 2008

Gebx says the 360 outsold PS3 in March, so he's not too sure where you people are getting these numbers...



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gebx on 14 April 2008
alpha_dk said:
You know, sometimes it annoys me when sites like this give more credibility to SimExchange than VGC (as evidenced by not citing VGC). 'Wisdom of the masses' types of things only work if everyone is guessing rationally based on evidence.

For example, it would work if you guessing how many jelly beans are in a glass jar... you can see everything you need to know, and as long as people aren't just randomly guessing (that is, they put some reason into it). It isn't that good when people can(and do) completely make up the evidence they use...

Where do you think SimExchange people get their numbers??



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alpha_dk on 14 April 2008
gebx said:
alpha_dk said:
You know, sometimes it annoys me when sites like this give more credibility to SimExchange than VGC (as evidenced by not citing VGC). 'Wisdom of the masses' types of things only work if everyone is guessing rationally based on evidence.

For example, it would work if you guessing how many jelly beans are in a glass jar... you can see everything you need to know, and as long as people aren't just randomly guessing (that is, they put some reason into it). It isn't that good when people can(and do) completely make up the evidence they use...

Where do you think SimExchange people get their numbers??


 Well, out of the top of their heads *sometimes*.  And that 'sometimes' is what ruins 'wisdom of the masses'.



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gebx on 14 April 2008
alpha_dk said:
gebx said:
alpha_dk said:
You know, sometimes it annoys me when sites like this give more credibility to SimExchange than VGC (as evidenced by not citing VGC). 'Wisdom of the masses' types of things only work if everyone is guessing rationally based on evidence.

For example, it would work if you guessing how many jelly beans are in a glass jar... you can see everything you need to know, and as long as people aren't just randomly guessing (that is, they put some reason into it). It isn't that good when people can(and do) completely make up the evidence they use...

Where do you think SimExchange people get their numbers??


 Well, out of the top of their heads *sometimes*.  And that 'sometimes' is what ruins 'wisdom of the masses'.


Actually they get the numbers from here... Check their posts, you'll often see vgchartz quoted



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kamil on 14 April 2008

@alpha:

You know, sometimes it annoys me when sites like this give more credibility to SimExchange than VGC (as evidenced by not citing VGC). 'Wisdom of the masses' types of things only work if everyone is guessing rationally based on evidence.

For example, it would work if you guessing how many jelly beans are in a glass jar... you can see everything you need to know, and as long as people aren't just randomly guessing (that is, they put some reason into it). It isn't that good when people can(and do) completely make up the evidence they use...

You aren't right. There is whole theory about "prediction markets" and they work quite good and give reasonable answers. It don't hurt much if some people don't think when making prediction or even try to manipulate numbers becouse than it's even more profitable to bet against them.

Also putting vgchartz there would mean that vgchartz just predicts numbers. Which is not true, vgchartz estimates it.