kamil on 14 April 2008
@alpha:
You know, sometimes it annoys me when sites like this give more credibility to SimExchange than VGC (as evidenced by not citing VGC). 'Wisdom of the masses' types of things only work if everyone is guessing rationally based on evidence.
For example, it would work if you guessing how many jelly beans are in a glass jar... you can see everything you need to know, and as long as people aren't just randomly guessing (that is, they put some reason into it). It isn't that good when people can(and do) completely make up the evidence they use...
For example, it would work if you guessing how many jelly beans are in a glass jar... you can see everything you need to know, and as long as people aren't just randomly guessing (that is, they put some reason into it). It isn't that good when people can(and do) completely make up the evidence they use...
You aren't right. There is whole theory about "prediction markets" and they work quite good and give reasonable answers. It don't hurt much if some people don't think when making prediction or even try to manipulate numbers becouse than it's even more profitable to bet against them.
Also putting vgchartz there would mean that vgchartz just predicts numbers. Which is not true, vgchartz estimates it.
