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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD PREDICTION: Super Smash Bros Ultimate (Currently 17.68mil) Will Sell over 25mil WW Lifetime, Book IT

LGBTDBZBBQ on 26 July 2018
tbone51 said:
TranceformerFX said:

I'll take a bet on SOLD, not shipped. 

Why not ship? 10mil is alot for any game to do SOLD in a month. Your confident the game will do 7-9mil lifetime. So shipped 10mil bet is perfectly fine and shows your doubting your own prediction if you have to have it as sold

yeah, weird indeed. 

Nintendo Shipment and a sold-through ratio are pretty close.



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tbone51 on 26 July 2018
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
tbone51 said:

Why not ship? 10mil is alot for any game to do SOLD in a month. Your confident the game will do 7-9mil lifetime. So shipped 10mil bet is perfectly fine and shows your doubting your own prediction if you have to have it as sold

yeah, weird indeed. 

Nintendo Shipment and a sold-through ratio are pretty close.

Even if its not close, its crazy cuz its 1 month and he believes a prediction of lifetime between 7-9mil



LGBTDBZBBQ on 26 July 2018
tbone51 said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

yeah, weird indeed. 

Nintendo Shipment and a sold-through ratio are pretty close.

Even if its not close, its crazy cuz its 1 month and he believes a prediction of lifetime between 7-9mil

It doesn't make any sense TBH. 

SMO moved over 1.1M in the 1st week vs Galaxy 500K in the first week

Smash Brawl 1st week US = 1.4M vs Smash 4 3ds+WiiU = 1.3M 

Similar to SMO, Smash Ultime would definitely benefit from a strong core and casual audiences of Nintendo Switch. The most important part why Smash Ultimate will open higher than all of those titles is because it will be released on the busiest month of Nintendo Consoles sales.

Smash Ultimate will be the fastest selling smash bros game like SMO the fastest selling Mario game and BOTW the fastest selling Zelda game.



Wyrdness on 26 July 2018
TranceformerFX said:
Not a single fighting game in the history of it's medium has sold 25 Million units lifetime. Not any Mortal Kombats, not any Soul Caliburs, not even Street Fighter 2 sold that many.

10 - 15 Million lifetime would best case scenario.
7 - 9 Million lifetime will likely be the reality.

25 Million though? Yeah, maybe in treeland....

No fighting game sold 10m until Smash Brawl which went on to sell 14m, Smash 4 has also sold 15m in total.



Amnesia on 26 July 2018

It is not hard to find 25M...If more than 5M was sold for 13,5M of WII U, 25M on the Switch would be a little fail...



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LipeJJ on 26 July 2018
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
tbone51 said:

Why not ship? 10mil is alot for any game to do SOLD in a month. Your confident the game will do 7-9mil lifetime. So shipped 10mil bet is perfectly fine and shows your doubting your own prediction if you have to have it as sold

yeah, weird indeed. 

Nintendo Shipment and a sold-through ratio are pretty close.

Yeah, and the only reason I said shipped is because it's the only official numbers we'll get, since we only have VGC for actual sales, which is not 100% accurate and doesn't include digital sales.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

LGBTDBZBBQ on 26 July 2018
LipeJJ said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

yeah, weird indeed. 

Nintendo Shipment and a sold-through ratio are pretty close.

Yeah, and the only reason I said shipped is because it's the only official numbers we'll get, since we only have VGC for actual sales, which is not 100% accurate and doesn't include digital sales.

If I remember correctly in Q3 last year we got a sold through numbers for switch titles and the numbers weren't far apart. 



LipeJJ on 27 July 2018
LGBTDBZBBQ said:
LipeJJ said:

Yeah, and the only reason I said shipped is because it's the only official numbers we'll get, since we only have VGC for actual sales, which is not 100% accurate and doesn't include digital sales.

If I remember correctly in Q3 last year we got a sold through numbers for switch titles and the numbers weren't far apart. 

Really? That's amazing, I hope we do end up getting these numbers again eventually.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

The_Liquid_Laser on 28 July 2018

A lot of people are underestimating Smash sales, because they are severely underestimating Switch sales. The biggest reason that tbone51 can make "ridiculous" prediction threads and be right is because the market is very enthusiastic for the Switch. What tbone51 knows is that the Switch is going to be much more successful than the average person is guessing. So he can keep making these prediction threads, and then he'll keep making people eat crow until they realize that several unprecedented predictions for software mean tremendous sales for hardware.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

tbone51 on 28 July 2018
The_Liquid_Laser said:
A lot of people are underestimating Smash sales, because they are severely underestimating Switch sales. The biggest reason that tbone51 can make "ridiculous" prediction threads and be right is because the market is very enthusiastic for the Switch. What tbone51 knows is that the Switch is going to be much more successful than the average person is guessing. So he can keep making these prediction threads, and then he'll keep making people eat crow until they realize that several unprecedented predictions for software mean tremendous sales for hardware.

Heyyyyyyy! I made some predictions on wiiu 2 :p