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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 2 June 2018

At this point i think is almost sure that PS4 is overtracked.

PS4 is at 79.7 million according to VGChartz, just 300K for the 80 million milestone. And we all know Sony always annunce every 10 million PS4 hit. They annunced 10 million, 20 million, 30 million, 40, 50, 60, and 70, there is no way they miss the 80 million annunce as well.

I could understand if they delayed the annunce for the E3, kinda what they did with 60 million... but the E3 is over. If Sony did not annunce yet the 80 million for PS4, this only mean that it has not reached that milestone.

Of course i expect PS4 to be very close to it and imo, is a matter of days, but yeah... according to VGChartz PS4 reached 80 million before the E3, and that's almost for sure is not the case.



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

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xMetroid said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:
Well at the start of the year Switch would sell +200k weekly, but lately it's been doing around 170k a week. Still good of course, especially when it's about to get a large amount of games in June/July. However at this pace, Switch is going to need the last 5 months of the fiscal year to be killer for that 20m shipped target.

isn't the 20 million for the fiscal year, so it barely began and the games are coming soon. Super Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash are 3 huge games and from 3 different potential consumers. Also, there is no way Jan - March 2019 will be as bad as the one in 2018.

I never said it would be as bad, infact I even pointed out how it was selling 200k/weekly through Jan-April this year which isn't bad at all. Mario Party hasn't been huge since the Wii/DS days, most certainly because it needed the unique audiences those systems attracted to reach such heights. Won't mind being wrong, but right now how I see it is that the Switch is gonna stay at this pace until November.

Mario Tennis/Octopath/etc. will keep the baseline steady or even raise it in June/July, but then it drops again in August/September. Mario Party and the beginning of the holiday season will pick it back up in October, but I'm betting Switch sales for the fiscal year at that point will be around 5-6m, so it'll need to sell 13-14m during the last 5 months (assuming 1m on store shelves). Difficult but possible.

MasterThief said:

switch only 700k units up yoy so far despite being released in march. so thats a about 1/3rd of the time period sale advantage

sales already tanking a bit.

 

its going to need a price drop this or next year

Sales won't tank, atleast not to last year levels. It will be up YoY for a long time, and it will continue its growth the next few weeks 



MasterThief said:

switch only 700k units up yoy so far despite being released in march. so thats a about 1/3rd of the time period sale advantage

sales already tanking a bit.

 

its going to need a price drop this or next year

You do realize a March launch will be much bigger than a regular March? That pretty much cancels out the fact that it wasnt available in Jan/Feb.

Also the thread that is tracking the weekly numbers shows that its been up by over 50k in each of the last 5 weeks. Thats the exact opposite of tanking.

A price cut next year is likely, it will be year 3.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

MasonADC said:
MasterThief said:

switch only 700k units up yoy so far despite being released in march. so thats a about 1/3rd of the time period sale advantage

sales already tanking a bit.

 

its going to need a price drop this or next year

Sales won't tank, atleast not to last year levels. It will be up YoY for a long time, and it will continue its growth the next few weeks 

ofc it will be yoy. its got released in march last year. thats 2 months less. 



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Ps4 ruling the WW market easily



MasterThief said:
MasonADC said:

Sales won't tank, atleast not to last year levels. It will be up YoY for a long time, and it will continue its growth the next few weeks 

ofc it will be yoy. its got released in march last year. thats 2 months less. 

Like i said in my last post, launch month cancels out missing two regular non-holiday months.

They shipped 2.74 million in March which is on par with their other non-holiday quarters.

March 2017-2.74 million

April/May/June 2017-1.96 million

Aug/Sept/Oct 2017-2.93 million

Jan/Feb/Mar 2018-2.93 million



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

MasterThief said:
MasonADC said:

Sales won't tank, atleast not to last year levels. It will be up YoY for a long time, and it will continue its growth the next few weeks 

ofc it will be yoy. its got released in march last year. thats 2 months less. 

Even then, it's not like 2018's lead have been decreasing, only increasing 



Ryng_Tolu said:
At this point i think is almost sure that PS4 is overtracked.

PS4 is at 79.7 million according to VGChartz, just 300K for the 80 million milestone. And we all know Sony always annunce every 10 million PS4 hit. They annunced 10 million, 20 million, 30 million, 40, 50, 60, and 70, there is no way they miss the 80 million annunce as well.

I could understand if they delayed the annunce for the E3, kinda what they did with 60 million... but the E3 is over. If Sony did not annunce yet the 80 million for PS4, this only mean that it has not reached that milestone.

Of course i expect PS4 to be very close to it and imo, is a matter of days, but yeah... according to VGChartz PS4 reached 80 million before the E3, and that's almost for sure is not the case.

Yeah, you're absolutely right. PS4 is overtracked, and it's not the first time



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

SKMBlake said:

Yeah, you're absolutely right. PS4 is overtracked, and it's not the first time

Huh? You say that like it's common for VGC, but whenever a new figure by Sony has been released throughout the ps4's life it's almost always been the case that ps4 has been undertracked.... smh.