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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

MasonADC on 03 June 2018
LethalP said:
If I'm not beating around the bush, the Switch isn't outselling PS4 in 2018, simple as that. I can cite sales trends and evidence to support this, the other way around is just wild speculation at best. People are acting like the PS4 is just going to stop selling over the holidays and the Switch is somehow going to close a gap of millions. $199 PS4 with Red Dead won't hold it's own apparently.

How much longer will ps4 continue its pacing ahead of Switch though? It is currently 1.5 million ahead, but will that continue to grow when Switch starts to get new first party releases in June-December? 



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Clarion on 03 June 2018

It depends if Nintendo can live up to the hype.

2017 was a great year for the Switch, but if we look at 2018, when it comes to releases, we're already in june and it is looking like those huge Wii U droughts.

Nintendo already released it's strongest system sellers - Mario and Zelda - to achieve this hype level.
Right now it's selling on this hype alone. But aside from Pokémon, there are not many big shots left. If the hype starts to cool down, current momentum will never pick up again.



quickrick on 03 June 2018
LethalP said:
If I'm not beating around the bush, the Switch isn't outselling PS4 in 2018, simple as that. I can cite sales trends and evidence to support this, the other way around is just wild speculation at best. People are acting like the PS4 is just going to stop selling over the holidays and the Switch is somehow going to close a gap of millions. $199 PS4 with Red Dead won't hold it's own apparently.

Its always been like this with switch, pokemon is all of sudden the second coming, when it didnt really do anything for 3ds 2013 and 2014 we not impressive sales wise for 3ds. 2018 switch was suppose to destroy ps4, yet its probably destroying switch WW, hopefully we get sales numbers soon. 



Barkley on 03 June 2018
MasonADC said:
LethalP said:
If I'm not beating around the bush, the Switch isn't outselling PS4 in 2018, simple as that. I can cite sales trends and evidence to support this, the other way around is just wild speculation at best. People are acting like the PS4 is just going to stop selling over the holidays and the Switch is somehow going to close a gap of millions. $199 PS4 with Red Dead won't hold it's own apparently.

How much longer will ps4 continue its pacing ahead of Switch though? It is currently 1.5 million ahead, but will that continue to grow when Switch starts to get new first party releases in June-December? 

I imagine for the most part the gap will continue to grow until either Pokémon or smash releases, switch may win the odd week before then but the majority of weeks PS4 will outsell it and continue to grow that lead, mario tennis is not a system seller.

I do expect Switch to sell more in the last couple of months of the year, but I don't think it will be enough to recover from a gap that will likely be over 2m by the time it starts to turn it back around.



LethalP on 03 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
LethalP said:
If I'm not beating around the bush, the Switch isn't outselling PS4 in 2018, simple as that. I can cite sales trends and evidence to support this, the other way around is just wild speculation at best. People are acting like the PS4 is just going to stop selling over the holidays and the Switch is somehow going to close a gap of millions. $199 PS4 with Red Dead won't hold it's own apparently.

If thats your mentality than you clearly cant be reasoned with.

What because I can cite evidence of my claims I can't be reasoned with? All I'm saying is I don't see a scenario where Switch outsells PS4 this year. If the Switch and PS4 were neck and neck at this point in the year trading blows week for week, then I'd see your point. But PS4 is consistently selling more world wide according to the only data we have or can go off.

I don't say this as some Sony fanboy who thinks GoW and Spider-man = 25+ million sales or some shit. I say it from what I can see so far in the year. All you argue is that Smash + Pokemon = domination, as if PS4 will simply stop selling in the holidays. But what you should consider is if Nintendo can't close the gap throughout the mid year, it's certainly not winning a holiday by 2+ million units. Not a chance.



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AJNShelton on 03 June 2018
Clarion said:
It depends if Nintendo can live up to the hype.

2017 was a great year for the Switch, but if we look at 2018, when it comes to releases, we're already in june and it is looking like those huge Wii U droughts.

Nintendo already released it's strongest system sellers - Mario and Zelda - to achieve this hype level.
Right now it's selling on this hype alone. But aside from Pokémon, there are not many big shots left. If the hype starts to cool down, current momentum will never pick up again. 

Wii U level droughts ? Hell no, Switch is out for only 15 months and have already more games than the Wii U.

Beside Pokémon (which will be a huge system seller), we already know Smash Bros will be out this year, and you clearly underestimate Mario Tennis Aces.

And let's not forget that before E3 2017, everyone was doubtful about the future of the Switch game library. And then we got the Super Mario Odyssey trailer, and everyone knew the game would sell like no other 3D Mario before



Teeqoz on 03 June 2018
Megiddo said:
Teeqoz said:

I'd be more interested in that split for Q1, but the only thing available is VGC numbers, which leaves me in a catch 22. Can't argue about the viability of VGC figures when VGC is the only available source for data. We shall see how this plays out over the rest of the year.

It's not an actual catch 22. You don't have any reasons to doubt the VGC data when it has been pretty much spot on before (in terms of total sales at least). If you don't have any data to support your case then it's just a baseless hunch at best and can't really be considered in any sort of sense. So it's either up to you to prove the past data quoted as faulty or accept it as the best we have and try and draw conclusions based on it.

Have you been around to witness the several times Sony provides official figures and VGC turns out to be off by a million or more? How is that not sufficient reason to disregard VGC data?



LethalP on 03 June 2018
MasonADC said:
LethalP said:
If I'm not beating around the bush, the Switch isn't outselling PS4 in 2018, simple as that. I can cite sales trends and evidence to support this, the other way around is just wild speculation at best. People are acting like the PS4 is just going to stop selling over the holidays and the Switch is somehow going to close a gap of millions. $199 PS4 with Red Dead won't hold it's own apparently.

How much longer will ps4 continue its pacing ahead of Switch though? It is currently 1.5 million ahead, but will that continue to grow when Switch starts to get new first party releases in June-December? 

Mario Tennis isn't doing a thing lol. It's not until Smash and Pokemon where Nintendo even have a foot through the door. I'll put it like this, PS4 has been sold out for much of May and it's continuing into June. GoW has had an unforseen effect on it's sales. It's winning May, it's definately winning June with the 'Days of Play' sale, completely canceling out any little effect Mario Tennis had for that month. And I see no reason Switch would win any other month of the year other than the ones Smash and Pokemon release in. And even then, if Smash hits September like many think, Sony has Spider-Man. PS4 won October 2017 despite Mario Oddysey, and it didn't even have an exclusive to compete.



zorg1000 on 03 June 2018
LethalP said:
zorg1000 said:

If thats your mentality than you clearly cant be reasoned with.

What because I can cite evidence of my claims I can't be reasoned with? All I'm saying is I don't see a scenario where Switch outsells PS4 this year. If the Switch and PS4 were neck and neck at this point in the year trading blows week for week, then I'd see your point. But PS4 is consistently selling more world wide according to the only data we have or can go off.

I don't say this as some Sony fanboy who thinks GoW and Spider-man = 25+ million sales or some shit. I say it from what I can see so far in the year. All you argue is that Smash + Pokemon = domination, as if PS4 will simply stop selling in the holidays. But what you should consider is if Nintendo can't close the gap throughout the mid year, it's certainly not winning a holiday by 2+ million units. Not a chance.

No because you just said anybody who's opinion is different from yours is wildly speculating at best.

Never once have i said anything about domination, i have said multiple in various threads that i think PS4 and NSW sales this year will be very close and competitive regardless of who wins.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Teeqoz on 03 June 2018
Barkley said:
Teeqoz said:

You're making it out like I have some preference. I don't mind either way (though I've got a financial interest in the PS4 doing well, so there's that). We'll see what figures Sony announce, they've often given figures at E3. I'd love for them to have a blowout 2018.

See below.

I'd be more interested in that split for Q1, but the only thing available is VGC numbers, which leaves me in a catch 22. Can't argue about the viability of VGC figures when VGC is the only available source for data. We shall see how this plays out over the rest of the year.

Split for Q1 is: (according to NPD + Mediacrate + VGC)

USA + Japan : 42.91%
Everywhere Else :  57.09%

Split for Lifetime Sales as of January 6th is: (according to NPD + Mediacrate + Sony Global Sales)

USA + Japan : 39.14%
Everywhere Else : 60.86%

So yeah the split from the confirmed figures (Sony Global Sales + NPD + Mediacreate) show bigger sales for "Everywhere Else" than VGC has for Q1 currently. Which would imply PS4 was actually undertracked, if it wasn't for the Monster Hunter boost to Japan.

So from that I'd say VGC is pretty damn close at the moment.

I meant splits for previous Q1s compared to this Q1. Comparing to lifetime splits ignores any seasonal variances in the split, but like I said, to get that data we have to rely on VGC which has proven to be off by a million before. You already said what you are repeating here in your previous post, and I understand your line of reasoning, but the core issue is VGC's unreliability, both for the PS4 and the Switch.