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Forums - Sales - Will this be the last year PS4 outsells Switch?

Barkley on 03 June 2018
Teeqoz said:
LethalP said:

That may well be, hold on to that possibility! But also just wait until Sony announces 80 million. If it's not in June, then VGChartz is overtracking PS4.

You're making it out like I have some preference. I don't mind either way (though I've got a financial interest in the PS4 doing well, so there's that). We'll see what figures Sony announce, they've often given figures at E3. I'd love for them to have a blowout 2018.

LethalP said:

Looking at VGC data last year, PS4 did 1,010,519 units in the US, 1,742,809 in Europe, 514,757 in Japan and 786,241 RoW bringing it to 4,054,326 Globally by March 31st. This was after taking into account the 7 million sold in 2017 by June 11th. Looking at how close the US numbers are this year, why would worldwide be much different? Especially with higher Japanese sales because of MHW.

To me, looking at 2018 NPD numbers in Q1, 3.9 million worldwide seems perfectly plausable. PS4 actually sells outside the main markets. It's already the 3rd best selling console of all time outside of the US, EU, and JP behind PSP and PS2.

See below.

Barkley said:

Actually 2.25m isn't too much for EU+RoW and the Rest of NA.

Let's look back at figures we knew were near correct because of official Sony Numbers.   https://web.archive.org/web/20180207194245/http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/

Total - 74.01m
NA -  25.2m (23.02m USA)
EU - 29.62m
RoW - 13.24m
Japan - 5.95m

Using that information we can determine:

USA+Japan = 39.14% of PS4 Sales
Everywhere Else = 60.86% of PS4 Sales

For the Q1 as the figures you've posted show, USA+Japan make up 42.91% of sales, higher than usual (due to monster hunter).

So yeah actually 2.25m for RoW+EU+Rest of NA for Q1 is actually below the usual proportion, likely due to strong japanese sales with monster hunter.

(Had to use Platform Totals page from a previous date because you can't show NA sales in the weekly/yearly charts only USA? Also 7th Jan is closest I could get to the December 31st which is when Sony gave figures.)

I'd be more interested in that split for Q1, but the only thing available is VGC numbers, which leaves me in a catch 22. Can't argue about the viability of VGC figures when VGC is the only available source for data. We shall see how this plays out over the rest of the year.

Split for Q1 is: (according to NPD + Mediacrate + VGC)

USA + Japan : 42.91%
Everywhere Else :  57.09%

Split for Lifetime Sales as of January 6th is: (according to NPD + Mediacrate + Sony Global Sales)

USA + Japan : 39.14%
Everywhere Else : 60.86%

So yeah the split from the confirmed figures (Sony Global Sales + NPD + Mediacreate) show bigger sales for "Everywhere Else" than VGC has for Q1 currently. Which would imply PS4 was actually undertracked, if it wasn't for the Monster Hunter boost to Japan.

So from that I'd say VGC is pretty damn close at the moment.



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Megiddo on 03 June 2018
Teeqoz said:

I'd be more interested in that split for Q1, but the only thing available is VGC numbers, which leaves me in a catch 22. Can't argue about the viability of VGC figures when VGC is the only available source for data. We shall see how this plays out over the rest of the year.

It's not an actual catch 22. You don't have any reasons to doubt the VGC data when it has been pretty much spot on before (in terms of total sales at least). If you don't have any data to support your case then it's just a baseless hunch at best and can't really be considered in any sort of sense. So it's either up to you to prove the past data quoted as faulty or accept it as the best we have and try and draw conclusions based on it.



xMetroid on 03 June 2018

Y'all are crazy. Switch will probably outsell the PS4 this year (Switch isnt that far behind and had literally no sellers since OCTOBER and 2nd half is packed.) PS4 will get destroyed in Japan in the coming months and if fortnite comes out on Switch, it will remove a big part of the current buzz on PS4.

There is no way Switch wont outsell the ps4 in 2019 tho. The new releases on PS4 dont bumb the sales too much and there has been a lot of bundles already. A pricecut can only do so much after 5-6 years compare to a Switch that will probably have its first pricecut.



zorg1000 on 03 June 2018
Megiddo said:
Teeqoz said:

I'd be more interested in that split for Q1, but the only thing available is VGC numbers, which leaves me in a catch 22. Can't argue about the viability of VGC figures when VGC is the only available source for data. We shall see how this plays out over the rest of the year.

It's not an actual catch 22. You don't have any reasons to doubt the VGC data when it has been pretty much spot on before (in terms of total sales at least). If you don't have any data to support your case then it's just a baseless hunch at best and can't really be considered in any sort of sense. So it's either up to you to prove the past data quoted as faulty or accept it as the best we have and try and draw conclusions based on it.

Did you miss last NPD when VGC was off by 50-60k for each console? Here is my post from the prediction thread

"Here are the North America estimates from this site

PS4-315k
NSW-270k
XBO-220k

Now thats North America while NPD is for United States so lets assume USA is ~85% of NA than we are looking at this

PS4-~270k
NSW-~230k
XBO-~185k"

 

We rarely get sales data for most of Europe & RotW so i doubt this sites weekly estimates are that great and are constantly getting adjusted whenever we get sell-through or quarterly shipment data.

Basically the only region that is consistently accurate is Japan because we get weekly data from them.

Last edited by zorg1000 - on 03 June 2018

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Megiddo on 03 June 2018

So if you're saying that VGC is likely undertracking PS4 and is overtracking X1/Switch, then you would have data to support that. There's no data to show that VGC is undertracking Switch and overtracking PS4 is there? I mean, if you want to make the case that the gap between the PS4 and Switch is even bigger than what it currently shows, feel free to make that argument.



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LethalP on 03 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
Megiddo said:

It's not an actual catch 22. You don't have any reasons to doubt the VGC data when it has been pretty much spot on before (in terms of total sales at least). If you don't have any data to support your case then it's just a baseless hunch at best and can't really be considered in any sort of sense. So it's either up to you to prove the past data quoted as faulty or accept it as the best we have and try and draw conclusions based on it.

Did you miss last NPD when VGC was off by 50-60k for each console? Here is my post from the prediction thread

"Here are the North America estimates from this site

PS4-315k
NSW-270k
XBO-220k

Now thats North America while NPD is for United States so lets assume USA is ~85% of NA than we are looking at this

PS4-~270k
NSW-~230k
XBO-~185k"

 

We rarely get sales data for most of Europe & RotW so i doubt this sites weekly estimates are that great and are constantly getting adjusted whenever we get sell-through or quarterly shipment data.

Basically the only region that is consistently accurate is Japan because we get weekly data from them.

While exact numbers won't be absolutely correct, distribution of sales across regions is pretty much spot on.



zorg1000 on 03 June 2018
Megiddo said:

So if you're saying that VGC is likely undertracking PS4 and is overtracking X1/Switch, then you would have data to support that. There's no data to show that VGC is undertracking Switch and overtracking PS4 is there? I mean, if you want to make the case that the gap between the PS4 and Switch is even bigger than what it currently shows, feel free to make that argument.

You're making up arguments i never said or even hinted at.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

LethalP on 03 June 2018

If I'm not beating around the bush, the Switch isn't outselling PS4 in 2018, simple as that. I can cite sales trends and evidence to support this, the other way around is just wild speculation at best. People are acting like the PS4 is just going to stop selling over the holidays and the Switch is somehow going to close a gap of millions. $199 PS4 with Red Dead won't hold it's own apparently.



quickrick on 03 June 2018
xMetroid said:
Y'all are crazy. Switch will probably outsell the PS4 this year (Switch isnt that far behind and had literally no sellers since OCTOBER and 2nd half is packed.) PS4 will get destroyed in Japan in the coming months and if fortnite comes out on Switch, it will remove a big part of the current buzz on PS4.

There is no way Switch wont outsell the ps4 in 2019 tho. The new releases on PS4 dont bumb the sales too much and there has been a lot of bundles already. A pricecut can only do so much after 5-6 years compare to a Switch that will probably have its first pricecut.

Fortnite coming to switch wont change anything, its already out on ps4/xb1 which will be superior versions, not to mention, the online shooter community are already on those consoles, the only thing switch has is splatoon, and thats only big in japan.



zorg1000 on 03 June 2018
LethalP said:
If I'm not beating around the bush, the Switch isn't outselling PS4 in 2018, simple as that. I can cite sales trends and evidence to support this, the other way around is just wild speculation at best. People are acting like the PS4 is just going to stop selling over the holidays and the Switch is somehow going to close a gap of millions. $199 PS4 with Red Dead won't hold it's own apparently.

If thats your mentality than you clearly cant be reasoned with.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.