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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won April NPD ( PS4 > NSW > XBO)

zorg1000 on 18 May 2018
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:
Are people really doubting fiscal year projections based on 1 month of sales?

Many people thought labo would provide a huge boost. Nintendo  is predicting 20 million and they are likely way behind ps4 in sell through numbers for 2018, yet sony is predicting 16 million.

No they didnt, pretty much everybody thought one of two things about Labo.

1. It would flop

2. It would be a hit but have a slow start

Barely anybody expected big things from Labo right off the bat.

 

Again, its literally one month and people are jumping to conclusions about the entire fiscal year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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quickrick on 18 May 2018
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

Many people thought labo would provide a huge boost. Nintendo  is predicting 20 million and they are likely way behind ps4 in sell through numbers for 2018, yet sony is predicting 16 million.

No they didnt, pretty much everybody thought one of two things about Labo.

1. It would flop

2. It would be a hit but have a slow start

Barely anybody expected big things from Labo right off the bat.

 

Again, its literally one month and people are jumping to conclusions about the entire fiscal year.

20 million is a insane number to achieve, so people can think its not possible if they want. especially with how low sell through numbers are looking this year, yes shipment were strong but expected since switch had about 1.5-2 million on store shelves last quarter which isn't much.



zorg1000 on 18 May 2018
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

No they didnt, pretty much everybody thought one of two things about Labo.

1. It would flop

2. It would be a hit but have a slow start

Barely anybody expected big things from Labo right off the bat.

 

Again, its literally one month and people are jumping to conclusions about the entire fiscal year.

20 million is a insane number to achieve, so people can think its not possible if they want. especially with how low sell through numbers are looking this year, yes shipment were strong but expected since switch had about 1.5-2 million on store shelves last quarter which isn't much.

Sure, nothing wrong with doubting 20m but its silly to doubt it based solely on 1 month of sales.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Faelco on 18 May 2018
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

20 million is a insane number to achieve, so people can think its not possible if they want. especially with how low sell through numbers are looking this year, yes shipment were strong but expected since switch had about 1.5-2 million on store shelves last quarter which isn't much.

Sure, nothing wrong with doubting 20m but its silly to doubt it based solely on 1 month of sales.

I thought it was the April NPD? Isn't April the 4th month of the year? 

 

Making prediction based on a third of the year doesn't sound that crazy...



LethalP on 18 May 2018

The Switch isn't going to be the Wii or DS. Rather more like the 3DS or GBA it will rely on the core gaming audience which respond directly to big game releases. This is unlike the Wii/DS which sold 400-500k a week on a regular basis with the motive being mostly to play Wii Sports. The Switch doesn't have that high baseline because it's a core machine.

The big downside here is that only really Nintendo release big games on the Switch, as opposed to Sony where third parties have their back as well. Not to mention Europe and the rest of the world market which Sony always has and always will dominate. Expecting Switch to do PS4 numbers in a year, let alone Wii or DS, is silly.



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quickrick on 18 May 2018
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

20 million is a insane number to achieve, so people can think its not possible if they want. especially with how low sell through numbers are looking this year, yes shipment were strong but expected since switch had about 1.5-2 million on store shelves last quarter which isn't much.

Sure, nothing wrong with doubting 20m but its silly to doubt it based solely on 1 month of sales.

Not really. imagine if switch did 300k this month, people out look on 20 million would be way more likely wouldn't you agree? each month is a indicator where the market is going. plus like another person pointed out this is the 4th month of the year and we are looking at a trend. honestly labo could have been a difference  maker, it could have been a huge hit nobody really knew till now with such a unique product from nintendo.

Last edited by quickrick - on 18 May 2018

Green098 on 18 May 2018
Faelco said:
zorg1000 said:

Sure, nothing wrong with doubting 20m but its silly to doubt it based solely on 1 month of sales.

I thought it was the April NPD? Isn't April the 4th month of the year? 

 

Making prediction based on a third of the year doesn't sound that crazy...

April is the 1st month for the Fiscal Year of what the 20 million forecast is for. (April 1st 2018 to March 31st 2019)

Last edited by Green098 - on 18 May 2018

zorg1000 on 18 May 2018
Faelco said:
zorg1000 said:

Sure, nothing wrong with doubting 20m but its silly to doubt it based solely on 1 month of sales.

I thought it was the April NPD? Isn't April the 4th month of the year? 

 

Making prediction based on a third of the year doesn't sound that crazy...

20 million is for the fiscal year which began April 1



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 18 May 2018
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

Sure, nothing wrong with doubting 20m but its silly to doubt it based solely on 1 month of sales.

Not really. imagine if switch did 300k this month, people out look on 20 million would be way more likely wouldn't you agree? each month is a indicator where the market is going. plus like another person pointed out this is the 4th month of the year, and honestly labo could have been a difference  maker, it could have been a huge hit nobody really knew till now.

Its 1 month, not 4. Fiscal year starts in April.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

quickrick on 18 May 2018
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

Not really. imagine if switch did 300k this month, people out look on 20 million would be way more likely wouldn't you agree? each month is a indicator where the market is going. plus like another person pointed out this is the 4th month of the year, and honestly labo could have been a difference  maker, it could have been a huge hit nobody really knew till now.

Its 1 month, not 4. Fiscal year starts in April.

yea i know but we can still look at the past 4 months and make a prediction of how it will do for the rest of 2018.