Yes its a serious post well see what happens.

I don't think 15m is the minimum. Pokemon X/Y and Sun/Moon only just passed 16m and opened much higher. Pokemon games haven't had very strong legs recently.

Sun/Moon shipped 14.69m in it's first quarter, and has since only shipped another 1.44m. 

Ultra Sun/Moon shipped 7.17m in it's first quarter, and afterwards only another 0.79m.

X/Y had the best legs, 12.26m first two quarters, and afterwards another 4.08m.

But yeah, Pokemon games aren't known for legs like other Nintendo games, they tend to sell a lot very quickly, but after the initial holiday rush don't do much the next year. Let's Go may prove to be different, but this remains to be seen.

Game should ship 10-12m this year, lifetime maybe 14m.

I've been hacked by Kirby.

But you do realise that game sold in 3m in first 3 days on market and that's best opening for any Switch game to date including Odyssey last year that had launch at end of October and finished year with 9m shipped units, fact that Pokemon has better opening, higher install base on it was launch, bundles and great WOM means that will at least do similar like Odyssey did last year.

I wrote around 15m. Both Pokemon X/Y and Sun/Moon had much higher install base on which they are launched so its not strange that had bigger openning. All big/strong Nintendo games have great legs on Switch, I dont see why would be different with PLG (at least until next year new Pokemon arives) espacily when we know that game has great WOM and people are were reserved about this game at first.

I expecting around 10m shipped at end of year and than at least 1m per quarter until next Pokemon dont arrives, that of course doesn't mean that this game will completely start selling because will still be more casual or intend that core Pokemon games that coming next year. With all that on mind, I think we talking about 15m+ seller here.

November added, PS4 extends the lead to just 295k but December is Nintendo's strongest month so it is still anyone's game.

Ya I think so too, conservatively it should do at least 1.8m which would put it just under PS4.

It's going to end very close, I think smash might just push the switch ahead.

Now it all comes down to how much of a system seller Smash Bros. truly is.

Well if Japan is any indication, a huge one

Smash Ultimate is going to smash PS4 2nd year and this year.

I think Switch is going to pretty much match the PS4's Dec 2015. Maybe outperform it by ~50K-100K, leading to a close victory for the PS4.

BTW, Zorg, were you planning on doing this again next year? This was a interesting one to follow.