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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

What info are you speaking of?

XBOX nearly, up one 100%, switch up 50%, and ps4 up compared to last year.

That is revenue, not units which was what i was talking about in my previous post.

The $500 X model inflates the YoY revenue gains so the unit sales will be quite a bit lower than 100%.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

XBOX nearly, up one 100%, switch up 50%, and ps4 up compared to last year.

That is revenue, not units which was what i was talking about in my previous post.

The $500 X model inflates the YoY revenue gains so the unit sales will be quite a bit lower than 100%.

wasn't xbox one cheaper this year then last year?



quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

That is revenue, not units which was what i was talking about in my previous post.

The $500 X model inflates the YoY revenue gains so the unit sales will be quite a bit lower than 100%.

wasn't xbox one cheaper this year then last year?

Mat Piscatella has strongly hinted that the average sale prices of Xbox One and PS4 were up from last year.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/june-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-july-31st.55220/page-10#post-11041057



duduspace1 said:
quickrick said:

XBOX X was out sold by 30k by the ps4 pro in june, combined they represent 30% of ps4/xb sales. https://www.neogaf.com/threads/npd-sales-results-for-june-2018.1464314/page-3#post-253375959

I wouldn't look into those prediction  numbers so much, using the NPD info is much better.

Doesn't this suggest a possibility then that the Switch could have outsold the PS4 in terms of units or came much closer to it as the NPD tool originally suggested ?

I do believe it would have been mentioned if it sold more in terms of units to be honest.

There indeed was that possibility, until this Tweet.



quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

That is revenue, not units which was what i was talking about in my previous post.

The $500 X model inflates the YoY revenue gains so the unit sales will be quite a bit lower than 100%.

wasn't xbox one cheaper this year then last year?

The S model was on sale for $50 cheaper than it was las year but like i said, a $500 sku offsets that.

Last year XBO was in the $250-300 price range while this year the S model ranged from $200-300 and the X model from $450-500.

Heres an example

Lets say the ASP last year was $270 and it sold 153,000 units (last year's leaked numbers). That would be $41.31 million in revenue.

Lets say the ASP this year was $350 and it sold 240,000 units (this year's #1 prediction). That would be $84 million in revenue (over 100% YoY).



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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jason1637 said:
globalisateur said:

 The fact that PS4 mostly had only one SKU in July is going to be a big problem for July. PS4 is going to be second, not third in July. Your method of prediction can only be consistent if the number of SKUs is roughly the same.

You'll have to take care of the problem soon or later.

We should wait for NPD to see if any changes need to be made. PS4 has been having shortages at retail and the XBO had a pretty strong prime day performance so PS4 could be third. 

I think Symbios has tweaked the tool already a bit too early with the multiplier for the XBox, the tool was already fairly accurate......seems also to me the skew in XBone figures could have come from revenue impact of the XBOX1X.

I am not at all convinced of the number of SKUs majorly affecting the reliability of the tool......that should be already taken care of in the weighting allocated to position. If there is only one SKU or a widely popular one dominating other SKUs of same device, then its position should always be high enough to get an equivalent point haul.



duduspace1 said:
quickrick said:

XBOX X was out sold by 30k by the ps4 pro in june, combined they represent 30% of ps4/xb sales. https://www.neogaf.com/threads/npd-sales-results-for-june-2018.1464314/page-3#post-253375959

I wouldn't look into those prediction  numbers so much, using the NPD info is much better.

Doesn't this suggest a possibility then that the Switch could have outsold the PS4 in terms of units or came much closer to it as the NPD tool originally suggested ?

I do believe it would have been mentioned if it sold more in terms of units to be honest.

No. those are the best estimated numbers by Liabe brave:

June 2018 NPD

PS4: 377k

SWI: 323k

XB1: 256k

https://www.resetera.com/posts/11278412/



08/09/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 14 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 30 (+5) - 299.00$
3 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 37 (+15) - 299.99$
4 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 38 (-34) - 399.99$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 49 (-1) - 285.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 100 (-21) - 484.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 78 points (+29) ; XBO : 54 + 1 = 55 points (-23) ; NS : 145 + 92 = 237 points (+15) ; PS4 (September) : 76 points (-119)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (+1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 8 (-) - 399.99$
4 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 16 (+1) - 299.00$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 18 (-2) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 35 (-6) - 499.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 63 (-15) - 499.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 76 (-9) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 points (+5) ; XBO : 125 + 82 + 38 + 25 = 270 points (-49) ; NS : 190 + 135 = 325 points (+5) ; PS4 (September) : 175 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb - 64 (R) - 399.99$)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 90 (-13) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 100 (+14) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Spiderman LE - 42 (-21)

PS4 : 88 + 62 = 150 points (+76) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS :52 points (+8) ; PS4 (September) : 0 points (-110)

Overall (Today) :

1 - NS : 306.6 points (+21.0) ; Month Average : 305.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 252.4 points (+100.2) ; Month Average : 168.9 points/day ; 0.55 (+0.06)
3 - XBO : 127.4 points (-36.7) ; Month Average : 161.5 points/day ; 0.53 (-0.03)



PS4 back with a vengeance



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Oh dear, PS4 on some viagra pills while the dear XBone gets the droop.