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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Bofferbrauer2 on 03 May 2019
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Heh, if you delete the first 10 days, then the chart looks pretty normal. However duing those first 10-ish days the XB1 has 3-5 times the points of the other two consoles. Somehow I am skeptical that XB1 actually got 3-5 times the sales during those first few days.

Very probably didn't, hence why there's gonna be some tweaks after the result of the month is out, so the calculation can be adapted to them.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Around the Network
The_Liquid_Laser on 03 May 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Heh, if you delete the first 10 days, then the chart looks pretty normal. However duing those first 10-ish days the XB1 has 3-5 times the points of the other two consoles. Somehow I am skeptical that XB1 actually got 3-5 times the sales during those first few days.

Very probably didn't, hence why there's gonna be some tweaks after the result of the month is out, so the calculation can be adapted to them.

This month may actually be very good for the tool then.  If the right tweaks can be made, accounting for this big a swing, then it will probably be more accurate during the holidays as well.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Symbios63 on 05 May 2019

05/05/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 14 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 45 (-6) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 46 (-8) - 299.00$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 86 (+3) - 206.60$
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 88 (-5) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 62 + 13 = 75 points (-17) ; XBO : 15 points (+3) ; NS : 145 + 60 = 205 points (-11)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 4 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (-3) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 10 (-) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 20 (+4) - 399.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 66 (-29) - 399.99$
7 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 69 (+20) - 299.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 77 (+4) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 165 = 360 points (+15) ; XBO : 115 + 32 + 24 = 171 points (+35) ; NS : 210 + 175 + 35 = 420 points (-58)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 36 (+22)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 69 (+4)
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 89 (+20)
4 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 92 (+19)
5 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 135 (-27)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 82 + 62 = 144 points (+20) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 125 + 60 + 33 = 218 points (+32)

Overall :

1 - NS : 466.0 points (-) ; Month Average : 466.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 276.0 points (-) ; Month Average : 276.0 points/day ; 0.59 (-)
3 - XBO : 60.1 points (-) ; Month Average : 60.1 points/day ; 0.13 (-)

First update for may



Symbios63 on 05 May 2019

Final results for April :

1 - XBO : 511.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 427.1 points/day ; 0.83 (+0.02)
3 - PS4 : 261.2 points/day ; 0.51 (+0.02)



ironmanDX on 06 May 2019
Mar1217 said:
That start for Xbox ...

That rest of the month for xbox...



Around the Network
Symbios63 on 07 May 2019

05/07/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (+4) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 31 (+14) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 37 (+9) - 299.00$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 79 (+9) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 86 (+3) - 206.60$

PS4 : 90 + 22 = 112 points (+37) ; XBO : 0 points (-15) ; NS : 165 + 78 = 243 points (+38)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 4 (-) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 9 (+1) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 12 (-4) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 28 (-8) - 399.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 61 (+5) - 399.99$
7 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 71 (+6) - 299.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 72 (-3) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 170 = 365 points (+5) ; XBO : 96 + 30 + 29 = 155 points (-16) ; NS : 210 + 155 + 40 = 405 points (-15)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 45 (-9)
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 59 (+10)
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 63 (+29)
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 100 (-11)
5 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White D - 187 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 135 (-27)

PS4 : 92 + 50 = 142 points (-2) ; XBO : 7 points (+7) ; NS : 106 + 88 = 194 points (-24)

Overall :

1 - NS : 469.4 points (+3.4) ; Month Average : 469.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 304.6 points (+28.6) ; Month Average : 292.2 points/day ; 0.62 (+0.03)
3 - XBO : 49.4 points (-10.7) ; Month Average : 52.1 points/day ; 0.11 (-0.02)



Bofferbrauer2 on 07 May 2019
ironmanDX said:
Mar1217 said:
That start for Xbox ...

That rest of the month for xbox...

That cliff in between...



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Symbios63 on 09 May 2019

05/09/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 38 (-7) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 70 (+9) - 399.99$
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb - 86 (R) - 206.60$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 76 + 31 = 107 points (-5) ; XBO : 15 points (+15) ; NS : 170 + 80 = 250 points (+7)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 12 (-3) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 13 (-1) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 26 (+2) - 399.99$
6 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 60 (N) - 249.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 68 (+3) - 299.99$
8 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 69 (-8) - 399.99$
9 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 74 (-2) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 200 + 155 = 355 points (-10) ; XBO : 100 + 41 + 33 + 27 = 201 points (+46) ; NS : 210 + 150 + 32 = 392 points (-13)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 61 (-2)
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 64 (-19)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 73 (-10)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 79 (+21)
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 119 (R)
6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White D - 181 (+6)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 90 + 72 + 41 = 203 points (+61) ; XBO : 10 points (+3) ; NS : 88 + 78 = 166 points (-28)

Overall :

1 - NS : 444.4 points (-25.0) ; Month Average : 460.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 359.6 points (+55.0) ; Month Average : 321.2 points/day ; 0.70 (+0.08)
3 - XBO : 80.9 points (+31.5) ; Month Average : 60.4 points/day ; 0.13 (+0.02)



Symbios63 on 11 May 2019

05/10/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 14 (-5) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 35 (+3) - 299.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 39 (-3) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 75 (-5) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb - 89 (-3) - 206.60$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 82 + 26 = 108 points (+1) ; XBO : 12 points (-3) ; NS : 145 + 74 = 219 points (-31)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-1) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 4 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 10 (+3) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 12 (-) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 28 (-2) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 53 (+7) - 249.99$
7 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 57 (+12) - 399.99$
8 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 80 (-6) - 299.99$
9 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 89 (-21) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 155 = 350 points (-5) ; XBO : 96 + 48 + 21 + 12 = 176 points (-25) ; NS : 205 + 165 + 44 = 414 points (+22)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 67 (-3)
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 75 (-14)
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 105 (-26)
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 106 (-33)
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 129 (-10)

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White D - 181 (+6)

PS4 : 76 + 48 + 36 = 160 points (-43) ; XBO : 0 points (-10) ; NS : 84 + 48 = 132 points (-34)

Overall :

1 - NS : 382.0 points (-62.4) ; Month Average : 447.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 316.4 points (-43.2) ; Month Average : 320.4 points/day ; 0.72 (+0.02)
3 - XBO : 58.2 points (-22.7) ; Month Average : 60.1 points/day ; 0.13 (-)



Symbios63 on 13 May 2019

05/13/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (+3) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 38 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 41 (-6) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 79 (-4) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb - 83 (+6) - 206.60$
6 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 100 (R) - 214.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 70 + 22 = 92 points (-16) ; XBO : 18 + 1 = 19 points (+7) ; NS : 160 + 76 = 236 points (+17)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 6 (-2) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 8 (+2) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 11 (+1) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 31 (-3) - 399.99$
6 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 63 (-6) - 399.99$
7 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb The Division 2 - 71 (+9) - 299.99$
8 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 75 (+14) - 299.99$
9 (-3) - XBox One S 1Tb AD - 78 (-25) - 249.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 185 + 160 = 345 points (-5) ; XBO : 90 + 30 + 26 + 23 = 169 points (-7) ; NS : 205 + 175 + 38 = 418 points (+4)


- Gamestop :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 115 (-48)
2 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GG - 119 (R)
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 131 (-56)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 169 (-63)
5 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 179 (-74)

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 129 (-10)

PS4 : 35 + 11 = 46 points (-114) ; XBO : 0 points (-) ; NS : 43 + 41 + 16 = 100 points (-32)

Overall :

1 - NS : 372.4 points (-9.6) ; Month Average : 415.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 188.6 points (-127.8) ; Month Average : 292.0 points/day ; 0.70 (-0.02)
3 - XBO : 63.7 points (+5.5) ; Month Average : 60.6 points/day ; 0.15 (+0.02)