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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

zorg1000 on 08 March 2019
xMetroid said:
zorg1000 said:

And then go a step beyond that and imagine what a revision+$50 price cut combo will do.

I think that's just really not necessary. I mean they could do that if they want the Switch to die after like 5 years but i think they will try to keep it alive for longer (since with only 1 console now if the next one fails they won't have an handheld to save them so might as well take profit of the Switch while it last).

Price cut might happen but i feel like a revision isn't reallly necessary tbh, Switch is great like it is and people love it. Maybe a smaller and cheaper one ?

Its heavily rumored that a smaller, cheaper revision is coming sometime in the 2nd half of the year and with portable/Japan heavy franchises like Animal Crossing & Pokemon coming later this year I think it makes alot of sense.

I dont think it will have any massive changes, just some minor aesthetic & QoL changes and likely some minor cost cutting measures.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Kai_Mao on 08 March 2019
xMetroid said:
zorg1000 said:

And then go a step beyond that and imagine what a revision+$50 price cut combo will do.

I think that's just really not necessary. I mean they could do that if they want the Switch to die after like 5 years but i think they will try to keep it alive for longer (since with only 1 console now if the next one fails they won't have an handheld to save them so might as well take profit of the Switch while it last).

Price cut might happen but i feel like a revision isn't reallly necessary tbh, Switch is great like it is and people love it. Maybe a smaller and cheaper one ?

Yea probably not within a year or two unless they're going to revise it akin to the Xbone X or PS4 Pro or Slim or whatever.

Nintendo probably wants to maximize the profits and revenue it receives from selling the Switch at $300 for as long as they can.

Sales are not slowing down and 2019 is very promising with titles like Super Mario Maker 2, Daemon x Machina, Fire Emblem Three Houses, Yoshi's Crafted World, Astral Chain, Animal Crossing 2019, Luigi's Mansion 3, and Pokemon Sword and Shield.

Looking back on the thread on the possibilities of Switch revisions, now I am not sure if having a handheld-only would increase unit sales for this year with the current Switch at this pace right now. Maybe with how well the Switch is doing right now, Nintendo may hold back on announcing revisions for this year, at least. We will have to see.



xMetroid on 08 March 2019
Kai_Mao said:
xMetroid said:

I think that's just really not necessary. I mean they could do that if they want the Switch to die after like 5 years but i think they will try to keep it alive for longer (since with only 1 console now if the next one fails they won't have an handheld to save them so might as well take profit of the Switch while it last).

Price cut might happen but i feel like a revision isn't reallly necessary tbh, Switch is great like it is and people love it. Maybe a smaller and cheaper one ?

Yea probably not within a year or two unless they're going to revise it akin to the Xbone X or PS4 Pro or Slim or whatever.

Nintendo probably wants to maximize the profits and revenue it receives from selling the Switch at $300 for as long as they can.

Sales are not slowing down and 2019 is very promising with titles like Super Mario Maker 2, Daemon x Machina, Fire Emblem Three Houses, Yoshi's Crafted World, Astral Chain, Animal Crossing 2019, Luigi's Mansion 3, and Pokemon Sword and Shield.

Looking back on the thread on the possibilities of Switch revisions, now I am not sure if having a handheld-only would increase unit sales for this year with the current Switch at this pace right now. Maybe with how well the Switch is doing right now, Nintendo may hold back on announcing revisions for this year, at least. We will have to see.

Yea i totally agree. Also i feel like an only-handheld Switch would kinda ruin the whole point and make the whole marketing a mess. Like some things would not be playable cause you need motion controls and everything.. would literally need a labeling on games like Just Dance "not playable on the brand new handheld only switch".. like no sis.



zorg1000 on 08 March 2019
xMetroid said:
Kai_Mao said:

Yea probably not within a year or two unless they're going to revise it akin to the Xbone X or PS4 Pro or Slim or whatever.

Nintendo probably wants to maximize the profits and revenue it receives from selling the Switch at $300 for as long as they can.

Sales are not slowing down and 2019 is very promising with titles like Super Mario Maker 2, Daemon x Machina, Fire Emblem Three Houses, Yoshi's Crafted World, Astral Chain, Animal Crossing 2019, Luigi's Mansion 3, and Pokemon Sword and Shield.

Looking back on the thread on the possibilities of Switch revisions, now I am not sure if having a handheld-only would increase unit sales for this year with the current Switch at this pace right now. Maybe with how well the Switch is doing right now, Nintendo may hold back on announcing revisions for this year, at least. We will have to see.

Yea i totally agree. Also i feel like an only-handheld Switch would kinda ruin the whole point and make the whole marketing a mess. Like some things would not be playable cause you need motion controls and everything.. would literally need a labeling on games like Just Dance "not playable on the brand new handheld only switch".. like no sis.

I dont think it would be that much of an issue.

How did developers/publishers handle games that require PSVR, PS Move, Kinect, Motion Plus or New 2DS/3DS?

Literally just a sticker or label.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bofferbrauer2 on 09 March 2019

Hardware revision shares (March 8):

PS4:

Slim: (76)*0.8+(210)*02+170= 272.8
Pro: 27*08+195*0.2+50= 110.6

Slim/Pro ratio: 71.1/28.9%

Xbox One:

S: ((12)*0.8+ (60)*0.2+38)*1.3= 77.5
X: (0*0.8+(175)*0.2+49+5)*1.3= 115.7

S/X ratio: 40.1/59.9%

Slim+S 350.3/Pro+X 226.3

Total ratio: 60.7%/39.3%

Reversal on the Xbox side, now the X is outselling the S again.Pro+X also get slowly closer to parity with Slim+S again with that.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

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Bofferbrauer2 on 09 March 2019
globalisateur said:
The $35 gift card is like a temporary $35 price cut. Who buys a switch without a Mario / Smash / Pokemon game ?

I did, I choose Disgaea 5 Complete and Snipperclips Plus and, for my wife, Just Dance 2018 when I bought mine.

Speaking of Mario, the day of Mario is approaching fast (March 10, and for those who don't get it, MAR10) and Nintendo is going to give all games where Mario appears a discount of up to 50% (It said 50% period, but I doubt New Super Mario U Deluxe, SSBU and Super Mario Party would already be 50% off to be honest). This apparently also goes for retailers, so if there's no 35$ Gift card model anymore this would be the next best thing, as it equals a 30$ pricecut on a console plus either SMO, MTA and MK8DX.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Symbios63 on 10 March 2019

03/10/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 13 (-6) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 39 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 41 (+6) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 56 (-6) - 299.00$
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 89 (R) - 225.90$
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 96 (-22) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield V - 89 (+5) - 239.99$

PS4 : 74 + 5 = 79 points (-24) ; XBO : 12 points (-) ; NS : 150 + 70 + 45 = 265 points (-25)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-1) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 4 (-3) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 8 (-4) - 399.99$
4 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 14 (-2) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 15 (-7) - 399.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 19 (-5) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 50 (-4) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 175 = 370 points (-35) ; XBO : 140 + 52 = 192 points (-43) ; NS : 200 + 145 + 120 = 465 points (-40)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 15 (+3)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 39 (+44)
3 (+6) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black - 102 (+90)
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 110 (-8)
5 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 127 (R)
6 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 132 (-29)
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 143 (-8)

Out of Top 100 :

5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu + Pokeball Charger - 108 (-13) - Unavailable
6 (-4) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 126 (-43)
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 163 (+6) - Unavailable

PS4 : 175 + 46 = 221 points (+1) ; XBO : 50 + 37 + 35 = 122 point (+30) ; NS : 115 + 29 = 144 points (-23)

Overall :

1 - NS : 449.0 points (-51.0) ; Month Average : 622.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 358.2 points (-25.2) ; Month Average : 356.3 points/day ; 0.57 (+0.05)
3 - XBO : 221.0 points (+27.8) ; Month Average : 293.4 points/day ; 0.47 (-)



Bofferbrauer2 on 10 March 2019

Hardware revision shares (March 10):

PS4:

Slim: (74)*0.8+(195)*02+175= 273.2
Pro: 5*08+175*0.2+46= 85

Slim/Pro ratio: 76.3/23.7%

Xbox One:

S: ((12)*0.8+ (52)*0.2+37)*1.3= 74.1
X: (0*0.8+(140)*0.2+50+35)*1.3= 146.9

S/X ratio: 33.5/66.5%

Slim+S 347.3/Pro+X 231.9

Total ratio: 58.9%/41.1%

Slim stable, Pro plunged. And for Microsoft, S table, X rising up. As a result the total ratio between S/Slim and Pro/X barely changed at all, what the Pro lost the X won.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Symbios63 on 11 March 2019

03/11/19 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 7 (+6) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 39 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 46 (-5) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 56 (-) - 299.00$
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 87 (+9) - 399.99$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 97 (-8) - 225.90$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 74 + 14 = 88 points (+9) ; XBO : 4 points (-8) ; NS : 180 + 60 + 45 = 285 points (+20)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 1 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 4 (-) - 299.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 6 (+8) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 7 (+1) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 14 (+1) - 399.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + 35$ eshop - 31 (-12) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 37 (+13) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 180 = 375 points (+5) ; XBO : 145 + 78 = 223 points (+31) ; NS : 210 + 185 + 90 = 485 points (+20)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 11 (+4)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 33 (+6)
3 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 Black - 98 (+4)
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 107 (+20)
5 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 109 (+34)
6 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 121 (-11)
7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 White - 154 (-22)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 185 + 40 = 225 points (+4) ; XBO : 54 + 47 + 24 = 125 point (+3) ; NS : 130 + 46 = 176 points (+33)

Overall :

1 - NS : 501.0 points (+52.0) ; Month Average : 608.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 370.4 points (+12.2) ; Month Average : 357.9 points/day ; 0.59 (+0.02)
3 - XBO : 224.6 points (+3.6) ; Month Average : 285.7 points/day ; 0.47 (-)



Bofferbrauer2 on 11 March 2019

Hardware revision shares (March 11):

PS4:

Slim: (74)*0.8+(195)*02+185= 283.2
Pro: 14*08+180*0.2+40= 87.2

Slim/Pro ratio: 76.4/23.6%

Xbox One:

S: ((4)*0.8+ (78)*0.2+47)*1.3= 85.5
X: (0*0.8+(145)*0.2+54+24)*1.3= 139.1

S/X ratio: 38.1/61.9%

Slim+S 368.7/Pro+X 226.3

Total ratio: 62%/38%

Not much movement today, X slipped a bit but the others all went up a bit.



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/