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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Overall :

1 - NS : 564.2 points (-9.0) ; Month Average : 638.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 49.9 points (+10.6) ; Month Average : 453.9 points/day ; 0.71 (-0.02)
3 (-) - PS4 : 292.0 points (+19.2) ; Month Average : 352.1 points/day ; 0.55 (-)

And here is the final update for December, XBO might be overestimated because of post christmas promotion but we will see...

So if we extrapolate those ratios to actual numbers we have:

NS = 2m

X1 = 1.4m

PS4= 1.1m

So yeah, I believe both X1 and PS4 might be a little bit overestimated (Or Switch underestimated?).



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chakkra said:
Overall :

1 - NS : 564.2 points (-9.0) ; Month Average : 638.7 points/day ; 1.0
2 (-) - XBO : 49.9 points (+10.6) ; Month Average : 453.9 points/day ; 0.71 (-0.02)
3 (-) - PS4 : 292.0 points (+19.2) ; Month Average : 352.1 points/day ; 0.55 (-)

And here is the final update for December, XBO might be overestimated because of post christmas promotion but we will see...

So if we extrapolate those ratios to actual numbers we have:

NS = 2m

X1 = 1.4m

PS4= 1.1m

So yeah, I believe both X1 and PS4 might be a little bit overestimated (Or Switch underestimated?).

Or maybe both?

At least the rankings seem correct already. Gonna see in 10 days or 2 weeks what's the exact sales



Bofferbrauer2 said:
chakkra said:

So if we extrapolate those ratios to actual numbers we have:

NS = 2m

X1 = 1.4m

PS4= 1.1m

So yeah, I believe both X1 and PS4 might be a little bit overestimated (Or Switch underestimated?).

Or maybe both?

At least the rankings seem correct already. Gonna see in 10 days or 2 weeks what's the exact sales

It is entirely possible, but I´m being cautious about it.  I mean, I know people are expecting humungous numbers based on Benji´s words.  But it is precisely because of Benji´s words that I´m being cautious.  I mean, in the last couple of months I have noticed that he does have a tendency of overestimating Switch´s numbers a little bit. 

And just to clarify, I´m not saying that the guy has a bias towards the Switch. It could be just coincidence, or it could be that he just has access to Nintendo´s data before the others and that prevents him from having the whole picture until the very end, idk. 

Anyways, let´s wait and see.



chakkra said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Or maybe both?

At least the rankings seem correct already. Gonna see in 10 days or 2 weeks what's the exact sales

It is entirely possible, but I´m being cautious about it.  I mean, I know people are expecting humungous numbers based on Benji´s words.  But it is precisely because of Benji´s words that I´m being cautious.  I mean, in the last couple of months I have noticed that he does have a tendency of overestimating Switch´s numbers a little bit. 

And just to clarify, I´m not saying that the guy has a bias towards the Switch. It could be just coincidence, or it could be that he just has access to Nintendo´s data before the others and that prevents him from having the whole picture until the very end, idk. 

Anyways, let´s wait and see.

Did he overestimate them last month? I can't remember if he did but I don't think he did.



01/08/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 21 (-) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 53 (-) - 299.95$
4 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 84 (-) - 399.99$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 91 (R) - 319.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 95 (-) - 234.94$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 48 + 17 + 10 = 75 points (-) ; XBO : 6 points (-) ; NS : 155 + 110 = 265 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 5 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 9 (-) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 36 (-) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 61 (-) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 66 (-5) - 299.99$

PS4 : 190 + 170 = 360 points (-) ; XBO : 80 + 40 = 120 points (-) ; NS : 205 + 200 = 405 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 10 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 18 (-)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 63 (-)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 169 (-)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 190 + 16 = 206 points (-) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 170 + 88 = 258 points (-)

Overall :

1 - NS : 551.0 points (-) ; Month Average : 552.3 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 366.0 points (-) ; Month Average : 364.3 points/day ; 0.66 (-)
3 - XBO : 37.4 points (-) ; Month Average : 40.0 points/day ; 0.07 (-)


First January update. PS4 has few preorder points from KHIII gamestop bundles...



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Symbios63 said:
01/08/19 :



First January update. PS4 has few preorder points from KHIII gamestop bundles...

Still called December 2018 in your chart

Also, PS4 not being even close to Switch despite preorder bundles and KHIII releasing soon just tells me that the sales gap between those two is rapidly increasing.



01/09/19 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (-) - 298.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 20 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 53 (-) - 299.95$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 80 (+4) - 399.99$
5 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 90 (+5) - 234.94$
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman - 93 (-2) - 319.99$


Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 48 + 21 + 8 = 77 points (+2) ; XBO : 11 points (+5) ; NS : 155 + 115 = 270 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 4 (+1) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 7 (+2) - 399.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 41 (-5) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 79 (-18) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 195 + 180 = 375 points (+15) ; XBO : 70 + 22 = 92 points (-28) ; NS : 205 + 200 = 405 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 10 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 21 (-3)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 71 (-8)

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 169 (-)

PS4 : 190 points (-16) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 160 + 80 = 240 points (-18)

Overall :

1 - NS : 537.0 points (-14.0) ; Month Average : 548.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 354.6 points (-11.4) ; Month Average : 361.9 points/day ; 0.66 (-)
3 - XBO : 35.4 points (-2.0) ; Month Average : 38.9 points/day ; 0.07 (-)



When does npd release their December report?



JSG87 said:
chakkra said:

It is entirely possible, but I´m being cautious about it.  I mean, I know people are expecting humungous numbers based on Benji´s words.  But it is precisely because of Benji´s words that I´m being cautious.  I mean, in the last couple of months I have noticed that he does have a tendency of overestimating Switch´s numbers a little bit. 

And just to clarify, I´m not saying that the guy has a bias towards the Switch. It could be just coincidence, or it could be that he just has access to Nintendo´s data before the others and that prevents him from having the whole picture until the very end, idk. 

Anyways, let´s wait and see.

Did he overestimate them last month? I can't remember if he did but I don't think he did.

Benji was dead on accurate last month. I should know since I was arguing against his predictions and ended up completely wrong.

I'm expecting Nintendo to outsell both PS4 and X1 combined for December. Smash did mega huge numbers and pushed an absurd amount of hardware for the holidays.



Megiddo said:
JSG87 said:

Did he overestimate them last month? I can't remember if he did but I don't think he did.

Benji was dead on accurate last month. I should know since I was arguing against his predictions and ended up completely wrong.

I'm expecting Nintendo to outsell both PS4 and X1 combined for December. Smash did mega huge numbers and pushed an absurd amount of hardware for the holidays.

He slightly underestimated XBO, he said he was surprised that it was only down ~3% YoY, obviously that's not enough to doubt what he says but if he is slightly underestimating it again than it's possible that PS4+XBO could be over NSW but it should be close.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.