Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Madword said:
This topic and the amazon one is all about prediction, its pretty silly to be saying why we care about the tool. Its' fun and it's interesting, its a discussion point about how things are going....

The tool is great and the work that is done on it is superb.

I agree, some people just take the console allegiance thing way too seriously. 



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Madword said:
This topic and the amazon one is all about prediction, its pretty silly to be saying why we care about the tool. Its' fun and it's interesting, its a discussion point about how things are going....

The tool is great and the work that is done on it is superb.

Yea, ultimately, it’s great if all three console makers and third party developers are doing well. Predictions add to discussions on where sales could go and what could potentially transpire due to these sales. So what if one month is wrong? There’s always room for improvement, especially during time of the holidays. Nothing’s perfect, especially predictions.



11/25/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 3 (+1) - 199.00$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 5 (-2) - TP
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (+4) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 30 (-4) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (+3) - 299.00$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 50 (-7) - 229.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 55 (-8) - TP
8 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 67 (-2) - 229.00$
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 74 (-1) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 46 + 27 = 73 points (-13) ; XBO : 200 + 92 + 52 + 34 = 378 point (-19) ; NS : 190 + 170 + 80 = 440 points (+16)


- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 3 (-1) - 199.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 7 (-6) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 11 (+7) - 399.99$
4 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (+10) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 19 (+2) - 229.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 28 (+3) - 429.99$
7 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 32 (-8) - 299.99$
8 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 54 (+6) - 299.99$
9 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb - 57 (+26) - 399.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 81 (-6) - 229.99$

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-6) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 48 (-46) - 199.99$

PS4 : 160 + 88 = 248 points (-37) ; XBO : 200 + 120 + 96 + 44 + 20 = 480 points (+31) ; NS : 180 + 140 + 47 = 367 points (+14)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 3 (-)
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 13 (+2)
3 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle + GC - 18 (+3)
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 19 (-)
5 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb + GC - 23 (+10)
6 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC + GC - 35 (+6)
7 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle + GC - 37 (+9)
8 (+1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 + GC - 39 (+6)
9 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb + GC - 71 (+6)
10 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb + GC - 74 (+15)
11 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 85 (+11)
12 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 + GC - 90 (+10)
13 (+4) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 113 (+27)
14 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves P Bundle + GC - 124 (-1)
15 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves D Bundle + GC - 126 (+6)
16 (+2) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 + GC - 133 (+9)
17 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 139 (+13)
18 (-16) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle + GC - 159 (-148)
19 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 Bundle + GC - 160 (+13)

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-3) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb Spiderman Bundle - 23 (-8)
21 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 176 (-50)


PS4 : 170 + 155 + 78 + 44 = 447 points (-91) ; XBO : 165 + 120 + 115 + 80 + 66 + 64 + 39 + 38 + 34 + 31 + 21 = 770 points (+68) ; NS : 205 + 180 + 125 + 21 = 531 points (-157)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1368.5 points (-141.4) ; Month Average : 1365.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 1567.5 points (+76.7) ; Month Average : 671.3 points/day ; 0.49 (+0.03)
3 - PS4 : 555.0 points (-108.8) ; Month Average : 449.2 points/day ; 0.33 (-)



If the tool were to get November right calling it correctly for the Switch, then it would mean basically that some of the bundles accounted for by the tool for last month were accounted for in a different month by NPD since both the Switch and the PS4 are widely reported to have done well during BF with a seeming slight edge for the PS4.
I retain a slight hope that the Switch might get a surprise victory this month.



I'm not holding my breath for a Switch win in November. It isn't impossible, but going by demand for the 199 PS4, this is Sony's month to lose. So if they come in second, it's all just down to stock.

As for the tool, right now the Switch and tracking sounds on point, Xbone probably slightly overtracked, but the PS4 tracking is way off. I don't think this will be easily addressed either. Last month was an issue of too much of the preorder impact being applied to that one day of tracking for the Smash bundle. This is a bit more of an issue as it seems mainly tied to the fact the Spidey bundle shot to the top and promptly went out of stock. So it didn't have time to gain points for PS4 and the tool can't distinguish between a system narrowly making #1 and an item selling 10x what #2 is.



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11/26/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 3 (-) - 199.00$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 13 (-8) - TP
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 29 (+1) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 32 (+4) - 299.00$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 45 (+5) - 229.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 47 (+8) - TP
8 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 59 (+15) - 299.99$
9 (-1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 71 (-4) - 229.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 58 + 42 = 100 points (+27) ; XBO : 200 + 94 + 62 + 30 = 386 point (+8) ; NS : 175 + 150 + 88 = 413 points (-27)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 3 (-) - 199.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 7 (-) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 11 (-) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 19 (-) - 229.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 28 (-) - 429.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 32 (-) - 299.99$
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 54 (-) - 299.99$
9 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 57 (-) - 399.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 81 (-6) - 229.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 160 + 88 = 248 points (-) ; XBO : 200 + 120 + 96 + 44 + 20 = 480 points (-) ; NS : 180 + 140 + 47 = 367 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 1 (+2)
2 (N) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC + GC2 - 8 (N)
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 11 (+2)
4 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb Spiderman Bundle - 14 (R)
5 (N) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC + GC2 - 17 (N)
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb + GC - 23 (-)
7 (-3) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 25 (-6)
8 (-5) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle + GC - 28 (-10)
9 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle + GC - 35 (+2)
10 (-4) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC + GC - 36 (-1)
11 (-3) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 + GC - 42 (-3)
12 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb + GC - 47 (+27)
13 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 53 (+60)
14 (+4) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle + GC - 64 (+95)
15 (-4) - XBox One S 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 79 (+6)
16 (-4) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 + GC - 86 (+4)
17 (-8) - XBox One X 1Tb + GC - 92 (-21)
18 (-2) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 + GC - 108 (+15)
19 (-5) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves P Bundle + GC - 110 (+14)
20 (-3) - XBox One X 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 119 (+20)
21 (-6) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves D Bundle + GC - 128 (-2)
22 (-3) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 Bundle + GC - 130 (+30)

Out of Top 100 :

-


PS4 : 180 + 155 + 145 + 104 + 98 = 682 points (+235) ; XBO : 150 + 125 + 110 + 72 + 66 + 60 + 47 + 46 + 41 + 37 + 36 = 790 points (+20) ; NS : 210 + 195 + 185 + 170 + 125 + 88 = 973 points (+442)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1788.9 points (+420.4) ; Month Average : 1382.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 1601.9 points (+34.4) ; Month Average : 710.1 points/day ; 0.51 (+0.02)
3 - PS4 : 811.6 points (+256.6) ; Month Average : 464.3 points/day ; 0.34 (+0.01)



11/27/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (+5) - 299.00$
2 (+3) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 17 (+15) - 299.00$
3 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 24 (-21) - TP
4 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 27 (+18) - 229.99$
5 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 37 (R) - TP
6 (+3) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 48 (+23) - 248.99$
7 (N) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 49 (N) - 334.00$
8 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 50 (-3) - 339.00$
9 (-6) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 56 (-43) - 423.00$
10 (-6) - XBox One X 1Tb - 61 (-32) - 452.96$
11 (-3) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 62 (-3) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 78 + 52 + 39 = 169 points (+69) ; XBO : 104 + 98 + 56 + 40 = 298 point (-88) ; NS : 200 + 130 + 54 + 45 = 429 points (+16)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 3 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 10 (+1) - 399.99$
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 14 (+1) - 299.99$
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 18 (+1) - 299.99$
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 27 (+1) - 499.99$
6 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 31 (+1) - 299.99$
7 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 53 (+1) - 299.99$
8 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 56 (+1) - 399.99$
9 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 79 (+2) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 7 (-) - 299.99$

PS4 : 165 + 90 = 255 points (+7) ; XBO : 200 + 125 + 98 + 45 + 22 = 490 points (+10) ; NS : 145 + 48 = 193 points (-174)


- Gamestop :

1 (+3) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb Spiderman Bundle - 12 (+2)
2 (+5) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 15 (+10)
3 (+10) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 19 (+34)

Out of Top 100 :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 1 (+2)
2 (N) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC + GC2 - 8 (N)
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 11 (+2)
5 (N) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC + GC2 - 17 (N)
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb + GC - 23 (-)
8 (-5) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle + GC - 28 (-10)
9 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle + GC - 35 (+2)
10 (-4) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC + GC - 36 (-1)
11 (-3) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 + GC - 42 (-3)
12 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb + GC - 47 (+27)
14 (+4) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle + GC - 64 (+95)
15 (-4) - XBox One S 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 79 (+6)
16 (-4) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 + GC - 86 (+4)
17 (-8) - XBox One X 1Tb + GC - 92 (-21)
18 (-2) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 + GC - 108 (+15)
19 (-5) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves P Bundle + GC - 110 (+14)
20 (-3) - XBox One X 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 119 (+20)
21 (-6) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves D Bundle + GC - 128 (-2)
22 (-3) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 Bundle + GC - 130 (+30)

PS4 : 185 + 165 = 350 points (-332) ; XBO : 175 points (-615) ; NS : 0 point (-973)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 793.9 points (-995.0) ; Month Average : 1358.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 713.4 points (-888.5) ; Month Average : 710.2 points/day ; 0.52 (+0.01)
3 - PS4 : 536.2 points (-275.4) ; Month Average : 467.2 points/day ; 0.34 (-)


Gamestop having a black friday hangover...



duduspace1 said:
If the tool were to get November right calling it correctly for the Switch, then it would mean basically that some of the bundles accounted for by the tool for last month were accounted for in a different month by NPD since both the Switch and the PS4 are widely reported to have done well during BF with a seeming slight edge for the PS4.
I retain a slight hope that the Switch might get a surprise victory this month.

Didn't we use to get black friday results in the past based on surveys? I wonder if we'll get one this year...



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Hah, dat NS drop at gamestop :P



Switch and Xbox were going sicko mode but that drop after CM is pretty big.