The holidays will be weird. I'm already seeing early Black Friday sales of games become out-of-stock at Walmart online like Xenobalde 2, ARMS, Dragon Ball Fighterz, etc., and I'm not sure those are temporary or not. It'll be very interesting indeed.

!!!!

Are you following the BF updates? Apparently ps4 is selling mega amounts. Out of stock almost everywhere. Switch is selling lots but nowhere near ps4 but xbox legging behind both. Their best hope is switch and ps4 don't get restocked so they can close the gap a bit for the last week of November. 

B&M Xbox is for sure trailing but online it looks like it winning and cyber monday is almost as big as black friday and with ps4 stock gone by then xbox could gain soem traction on monday.

Nah the week of black Friday is very much biased towards B&M still. And sales on cyber Monday will be far less then this entire week. 

I'm not sure about an entire week but last year Cyber Monday generated more revenue than thanksgiving thurdsay and blakc friday in the US

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14363909/1/how-cyber-monday-got-bigger-than-black-friday.html

Maybe so but in terms of video game consoles it's important but not more important then the week of BF. I don't think the xbox has the ability to sell more then last year so I can't see it beating PS4 because I think it's shipment will be bigger then last year. Reports from retailers are suggesting PS4 are flying off the shelves but not the xbox. Switch while less stock then PS4 is also selling very well. 

I have a question for OP but how many times has he adjusted the model to be consistent with the NPD numbers thus far compared from his collected data ? You're not forced to answer if you don't want to ...

This is a good question.

I started this tool in march, I used march NPD results to create the formula in order to predict April. As it was surprisingly succesful, We kept the formula like this. This is pretty much it.

Oh yeah, down the line, I added a 1.3 factor to XBO points as it was consistently underestimated (I am not sure which month it was though it is somewhere in the thread...).

And the month of PS4 million, we had to only count one day of data for those, despite the fact they are still on gamestop list ...

Holyday season will require a big rework of the formula though, but those changes (if we come up with something decent) will remain "holidays only".

11/23/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 1 (+3) - 299.99$
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 4 (+2) - 199.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (+1) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 23 (+4) - 399.99$
5 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 42 (+21) - 229.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 43 (-4) - 299.00$
7 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 46 (-10) - TP
8 (N) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 64 (N)
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 65 (+19) - 299.99$
10 (-2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 67 (+14) - 229.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 60 + 37 + 36 = 133 points (+36) ; XBO : 195 + 106 + 68 + 34 = 403 point (+62) ; NS : 210 + 160 + 66 = 436 points (+12)


- Best Buy :

1 (N) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 1 (N) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 2 (-1) - 199.99$
3 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 4 (-) - 199.99$
4 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 30 (-21) - 229.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 31 (-17) - 399.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 32 (-6) - 429.99$
7 (R) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 39 (R) - 299.99$
8 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb - 62 (-43) - 399.99$
9 (-5) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 64 (-54) - 299.99$
10 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 79 (-22) - 229.99$

Out of Top 100 :

8 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (R) - 299.99$
10 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 86 (+3) - 429.99$
11 (-1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 90 (+3) - 229.99$

PS4 : 205 + 90 + 74 = 369 points (+14) ; XBO : 195 + 92 + 88 + 39 + 22 = 436 points (-219) ; NS : 210 + 37 = 247 points (+2)


- Gamestop :

1 (+3) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 3 (+11)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle + GC - 9 (-6)
3 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb Spiderman Bundle - 15 (-13)
4 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 16 (+7)
5 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 17 (-6)
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle + GC - 23 (+2)
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC + GC - 37 (-6)
8 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 + GC - 40 (+2)
9 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle + GC - 42 (+2)
10 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb + GC - 48 (+7)
11 (+4) - XBox One X 1Tb + GC - 66 (-1)
12 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 + GC - 81 (-24)
13 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 82 (-22)
14 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb + GC - 94 (-26)
15 (-4) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves P Bundle + GC - 103 (-47)
16 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves D Bundle + GC - 107 (-38)
17 (+1) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 + GC - 120 (-50)
18 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 125 (-53)
19 (-5) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 126 (-65)
20 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 Bundle + GC - 136 (-62)
21 (+5) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 185 (+12)
22 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle + GC - 188 (-101)

Out of Top 100 :

22 (-18) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC + GC - 124 (-74)
23 (-18) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle + GC - 146 (-85)
24 (-14) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 148 (-19)
25 (-17) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 + GC - 172 (-89)

PS4 : 175 + 155 + 104 + 58 + 8 + 7 = 507 points (-99) ; XBO : 170 + 115 + 110 + 86 + 70 + 70 + 49 + 47 + 41 + 38 + 33 = 829 points (-307) ; NS : 205 + 190 + 175 + 120 + 38 = 728 points (-103)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1538.3 points (-93.0) ; Month Average : 1358.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 1658.8 points (-391.6) ; Month Average : 589.6 points/day ; 0.43 (+0.03)
3 - PS4 : 687.2 points (-67.4) ; Month Average : 434.0 points/day ; 0.32 (+0.01)