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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Miyamotoo on 22 November 2018
Kerotan said:
Miyamotoo said:

I am calm, but pretending what you done is OK, and even less pretend that isnt you is bad. If you look at this thread before October tool started bringing resuts, you will see that like everyone thought PS4 is easily taking October (including me, from start I was saying that September and October are hard lock for PS4 win), but tool make so huge difference in favour of Switch compared to PS4, and with fact that tool was quite accurately previous months, people start thinking that Switch will actualy take month based on that. I can bet that even you had doubts about results for October because of this tool and that is a reason why you didnt want to talk how PS4 will October here, even if you will not admit that (I mean you dont want even to admit that you wrote that post on Resetera).

You're like a broken record going on about resetera. I feel like I'm in class as a kid getting in trouble with my teacher. Let it go. 

And I had Zer0 doubts about October. Zer0. Maybe because I wasn't being influenced by the tool like you were. As you said you thought October was a lock. That means you were sure. Obviously you weren't as sure as me if you changed your mind. You severely over estimated the switches ability to sell in October. I didn't. 

I keep mention that because you keep ignoring point that what you done is bad.

Yeah, like I wrote, you dont want even to admit that you wrote that post on Resetera, so I didnt expect that you will admit that maybe you also had some doubts based on NPD predicting tool.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 22 November 2018

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Madword on 22 November 2018
Kerotan said:
We're on vgchartz last time I checked. For all we know that poster on another forum is imitating me. So don't get your jimmies rustled over a post made on another forum. 

 

Come on now be serious, you know if its you or not right? don't give wishy washy answers, just leads me to thinking it is you and you cannot be adult about it. If this other account ISNT you, surely you would just say, its not me. If it is you, be an adult about it, and dont try being one person on one forum and another person on another, just makes you look silly.

We all know the tool is an extrapolation of data, what it cannot do is know the amounts when deals come in between positions. For example it cannot currently figure out a $199 PS4 in position 1 compared to say a $220 Xbox in position 2 and understand the gap. After the xmas period it should be able to get a base line, and then working out a possible future curve.



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

Kerotan on 22 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Kerotan said:

You're like a broken record going on about resetera. I feel like I'm in class as a kid getting in trouble with my teacher. Let it go. 

And I had Zer0 doubts about October. Zer0. Maybe because I wasn't being influenced by the tool like you were. As you said you thought October was a lock. That means you were sure. Obviously you weren't as sure as me if you changed your mind. You severely over estimated the switches ability to sell in October. I didn't. 

I keep mention that because you keep ignoring point that what you done is bad.

Yeah, like I wrote, you dont want even to admit that you wrote that post on Resetera, so I didnt expect that you will admit that maybe you also had some doubts based on NPD predicting tool.

Lol you are acting like my mammy or daddy 20 years ago xD

I just ignore it because 1) you have no proof 2) it's off topic.

And now you want me to admit that i had doubts about October. Like wtf lol. You want me to pretend i wasn't sure about October just to make you feel better? Jaysus. 



Symbios63 on 22 November 2018

11/22/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (N) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 4 (N) - 299.99$
2 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 6 (-1) - 199.00$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (-5) - 299.00$
4 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 27 (-5) - 399.99$
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 36 (-7) - TP
6 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 39 (-4) - 299.00$
7 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 63 (-10) - 229.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 81 (+2) - 229.00$
9 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 84 (-26) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 80 + 17 = 97 points (-40) ; XBO : 185 + 98 + 38 + 20 = 341 point (-23) ; NS : 195 + 155 + 74 = 424 points (+162)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 1 (-) - 199.99$
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 4 (-) - 199.99$
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 9 (-) - 229.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (+1) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 14 (+1) - 399.99$
6 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 19 (+3) - 399.99$
7 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 26 (R) - 429.99$
8 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (R) - 299.99$
9 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 57 (-) - 229.99$
10 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 86 (+3) - 429.99$
11 (-1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 90 (+3) - 229.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 145 = 355 points (-93) ; XBO : 195 + 170 + 120 + 100 + 44 + 15 + 11 = 655 points (+118) ; NS : 165 + 80 = 245 points (+85)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb Spiderman Bundle - 2 (-1)
2 (N) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle + GC - 3 (N)
3 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 11 (-8)
4 (N) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 14 (N)
5 (N) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 23 (N)
6 (N) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle + GC - 25 (N)
7 (N) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC + GC - 31 (N)
8 (N) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 + GC - 42 (N)
9 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle + GC - 44 (N)
10 (N) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb + GC - 55 (N)
11 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves P Bundle + GC - 56 (N)
12 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 + GC - 57 (N)
13 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 60 (N)
14 (-8) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 61 (+4)
15 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb + GC - 65 (N)
16 (N) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb + GC - 68 (N)
17 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves D Bundle + GC - 69 (N)
18 (N) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 + GC - 70 (N)
19 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 72 (N)
20 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 Bundle + GC - 74 (N)
21 (-18) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle + GC - 87 (-47)
22 (-18) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC + GC - 124 (-74)
23 (-18) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle + GC - 146 (-85)
24 (-14) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 148 (-19)
25 (-17) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 + GC - 172 (-89)
26 (-15) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 197 (-57)

Out of Top 100 :

7 (-) - XBox One 1Tb The Dvision Bundle - 77 (-10)

PS4 : 210 + 150 + 96 + 84 + 64 + 2 = 606 points (+211) ; XBO : 185 + 110 + 108 + 96 + 94 + 92 + 86 + 82 + 82 + 80 + 78 + 28 + 15 = 1136 points (+655) ; NS : 205 + 180 + 155 + 135 + 90 + 39 + 27 = 831 points (+607)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1631.3 points (+753.6) ; Month Average : 1348.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 2050.4 points (+858.3) ; Month Average : 536.2 points/day ; 0.40 (+0.06)
3 - PS4 : 754.6 points (+160.4) ; Month Average : 421.3 points/day ; 0.31 (+0.01)


Well, I think we can already say that Sony's relying only on Spiderman bundle during BF weeks will make PS4 badly undertracked by the tool in its current state for November.
We should ask the big 3 to only make "Tool friendly" promotions scattered among their available SKUs... ;)



gemini_d@rk on 22 November 2018

Ps4 spider if well captured by the tool would put the ps4 above 3 or 4 thousand points on the chart. The tool is good in common times but can not predict year-end months and deals.



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Miyamotoo on 22 November 2018
Kerotan said:
Miyamotoo said:

I keep mention that because you keep ignoring point that what you done is bad.

Yeah, like I wrote, you dont want even to admit that you wrote that post on Resetera, so I didnt expect that you will admit that maybe you also had some doubts based on NPD predicting tool.

Lol you are acting like my mammy or daddy 20 years ago xD

I just ignore it because 1) you have no proof 2) it's off topic.

And now you want me to admit that i had doubts about October. Like wtf lol. You want me to pretend i wasn't sure about October just to make you feel better? Jaysus. 

Sound that you see yourself still like a kid.

You acting and your posts last few pages proving much more than you think.

Wrong, I said very clear that I don't expect you will admit that. You don't want even to admit that you wrote that post, lol.



Kerotan on 22 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Kerotan said:

Lol you are acting like my mammy or daddy 20 years ago xD

I just ignore it because 1) you have no proof 2) it's off topic.

And now you want me to admit that i had doubts about October. Like wtf lol. You want me to pretend i wasn't sure about October just to make you feel better? Jaysus. 

Sound that you see yourself still like a kid.

You acting and your posts last few pages proving much more than you think.

Wrong, I said very clear that I don't expect you will admit that. You don't want even to admit that you wrote that post, lol.

You have no proof. 

Yeah I do see myself as a kid. A 20 something year old kid from Ireland, self employed who can do what he wants when he wwhts. I actually live the life of a kid. No worries no stress.

I see you are 33 and also from Ireland. Tell me about yourself. The way you have been talking lately I'd guess you teach little kids. "come on little Jimmy, what you did was really bad.. You gotta own up kiddo" xD

 



duduspace1 on 22 November 2018
Kerotan said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Not really. There's no hard proof it's me. This is what I said to him privately. 

 

"Just want to say I don't hate your tracker and appreciate the effort you go through. I've been frustrated lately seeing people act like Amazon rankings mean anything lately. Especially months where PS4 was so obviously going to win. Likewise with your tracker for October. I'd literally have bet my house on a PS4 easy win but because a group were getting attached to the tracker they couldn't see sense and thought Switch would win October. 


It is what it is but I do appreciate your work and most months your tool probably is a decent indicator to help predict who wins. Keep it up."

Hurray, you were right. Have you never been wrong before ? Kiddy stuff matey. The tool is distinct from those who believed the Switch would win, how do you know those people would not predict a Switch win even if they didn't have the tool as a basis for their assumption ?

Same thing some did to the Amazon tool before Marth took it up, they created so much negativity and almost drove Shadow into depression just because it predicted a Switch victory a couple of times while the PS4 won.



Kerotan on 22 November 2018
duduspace1 said:
Kerotan said:

Not really. There's no hard proof it's me. This is what I said to him privately. 

 

"Just want to say I don't hate your tracker and appreciate the effort you go through. I've been frustrated lately seeing people act like Amazon rankings mean anything lately. Especially months where PS4 was so obviously going to win. Likewise with your tracker for October. I'd literally have bet my house on a PS4 easy win but because a group were getting attached to the tracker they couldn't see sense and thought Switch would win October. 


It is what it is but I do appreciate your work and most months your tool probably is a decent indicator to help predict who wins. Keep it up."

Hurray, you were right. Have you never been wrong before ? Kiddy stuff matey. The tool is distinct from those who believed the Switch would win, how do you know those people would not predict a Switch win even if they didn't have the tool as a basis for their assumption ?

Same thing some did to the Amazon tool before Marth took it up, they created so much negativity and almost drove Shadow into depression just because it predicted a Switch victory a couple of times while the PS4 won.

Well miyamotoo admitted that he thought ps4 was a lock to win October but himself and others changed their mind when the tool said otherwise. 

And I'd say posting updates on an amazon chart multiple times a day is more likely the cause of depression. I sure as hell would and I mean that sincerely. 



duduspace1 on 22 November 2018
Kerotan said:
duduspace1 said:

Hurray, you were right. Have you never been wrong before ? Kiddy stuff matey. The tool is distinct from those who believed the Switch would win, how do you know those people would not predict a Switch win even if they didn't have the tool as a basis for their assumption ?

Same thing some did to the Amazon tool before Marth took it up, they created so much negativity and almost drove Shadow into depression just because it predicted a Switch victory a couple of times while the PS4 won.

Well miyamotoo admitted that he thought ps4 was a lock to win October but himself and others changed their mind when the tool said otherwise. 

And I'd say posting updates on an amazon chart multiple times a day is more likely the cause of depression. I sure as hell would and I mean that sincerely. 

Seriously ??? I would have you know that his chart updates contributed a lot more to this site than your negativity and extreme PS4 bias does as does this NPD tool by Symbios. If you do not like them, you don't necessarily have to post in those threads. That is the kiddy behaviour I am pointing out just in case you still don't get it.