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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Mbolibombo on 19 November 2018
Megiddo said:
And this week is where another potential flaw with this tool can come into effect. Whereby we have no idea just how far in front #1 is from #2, etc. Over the course of a year where sales are more or less even, this sort of flaw can be minimized, but in terms of relatively small duration of time, like say the week encompassing Black Friday/Cyber Monday, it has potential to produce a large discrepancy. Unfortunately there's not much that can be done in this case.

Anyway, any leaks for October NPD yet

This is always going to be a problem with a sytem like this. Especially as you say when a bundle goes on heavy sale for a short amount of time.

If you are #1 with 100 sales or #1 with 100000 sales.

You will still only get so many points.. 

But it is what it is, 



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TheBlackNaruto on 19 November 2018

So question why did the XB1 win the Holidays last year? I can't remember....was it all because of the X1X? Or was there some other deal that I am forgetting about? Will post this question in the NPD thread as well just in case no one here remembers either. I feel so silly because I seriously can't remember how it won but I remember clearly that it did. Ughhhhhhh I hate my memory at times lol.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

PortisheadBiscuit on 19 November 2018

The tool will struggle a bit in November and December, PS4 is clearly selling gangbusters at the moment and isnt reflected



gtjay1982 on 19 November 2018

I thought PS4 still sold the most in the US last holiday.



Megiddo on 19 November 2018
gtjay1982 said:
I thought PS4 still sold the most in the US last holiday.

It sold the most in November. I think it was 3rd/last in December. Honestly, don't even recall who sold the most in Nov+Dec combined per NPD



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globalisateur on 19 November 2018
TheBlackNaruto said:
So question why did the XB1 win the Holidays last year? I can't remember....was it all because of the X1X? Or was there some other deal that I am forgetting about? Will post this question in the NPD thread as well just in case no one here remembers either. I feel so silly because I seriously can't remember how it won but I remember clearly that it did. Ughhhhhhh I hate my memory at times lol.

It didn't, PS4 and XB1 sold almost the same during holiday (nov + dec) based on resetera estimations., PS4 (2.730m), XB1 (2.715m). It sold great because of new hardware, PUBG and base XB1 available basically for $200 or less during both months while PS4 was available at $200 for only 1 week in nov and $249 for I think 10 days in december. Switch had no deals and PS4 bundles were shit (Batllefront 2 bundles that nobody wanted and and not a great COD year).

But this year is very different.

November 2017 numbers:

[NSW] 850k
[PS4] 1650k
[XB1] 1350k

December 2017 numbers:

NSW: 1500k
XB1: 1365k
PS4: 1080k

Total holiday 2017:

NSW: 2350k

XB1: 2715k

PS4: 2730k

Last edited by globalisateur - on 19 November 2018

TheBlackNaruto on 19 November 2018
globalisateur said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
So question why did the XB1 win the Holidays last year? I can't remember....was it all because of the X1X? Or was there some other deal that I am forgetting about? Will post this question in the NPD thread as well just in case no one here remembers either. I feel so silly because I seriously can't remember how it won but I remember clearly that it did. Ughhhhhhh I hate my memory at times lol.

It didn't, PS4 and XB1 sold almost the same during holiday (nov + dec) based on resetera estimations., PS4 (2.730m), XB1 (2.715m). It sold great because of new hardware, PUBG and base XB1 available basically for $200 or less during both months while PS4 was available at $200 for only 1 week in nov and $249 for I think 10 days in december. Switch had no deals and PS4 bundles were shit (Batllefront 2 bundles that nobody wanted and and not a great COD year).

But this year is very different.

November 2017 numbers:

[NSW] 850k
[PS4] 1650k
[XB1] 1350k

December 2017 numbers:

NSW: 1500k
XB1: 1365k
PS4: 1080k

Total holiday 2017:

NSW: 2350k

XB1: 2715k

PS4: 2730k

Really? I could swear there were multiple threads about the XB1 selling the most for the Holiday period last year. Wow....interesting.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

gtjay1982 on 19 November 2018
globalisateur said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
So question why did the XB1 win the Holidays last year? I can't remember....was it all because of the X1X? Or was there some other deal that I am forgetting about? Will post this question in the NPD thread as well just in case no one here remembers either. I feel so silly because I seriously can't remember how it won but I remember clearly that it did. Ughhhhhhh I hate my memory at times lol.

It didn't, PS4 and XB1 sold almost the same during holiday (nov + dec) based on resetera estimations., PS4 (2.730m), XB1 (2.715m). It sold great because of new hardware, PUBG and base XB1 available basically for $200 or less during both months while PS4 was available at $200 for only 1 week in nov and $249 for I think 10 days in december. Switch had no deals and PS4 bundles were shit (Batllefront 2 bundles that nobody wanted and and not a great COD year).

But this year is very different.

November 2017 numbers:

[NSW] 850k
[PS4] 1650k
[XB1] 1350k

December 2017 numbers:

NSW: 1500k
XB1: 1365k
PS4: 1080k

Total holiday 2017:

NSW: 2350k

XB1: 2715k

PS4: 2730k

 

Ok this makes more sense to me.  Thanks for the info.



Miyamotoo on 20 November 2018

This year will be interesting, Switch will most likely easily pass 3m combined for November+December sales, maybe even 3.5m+.



Symbios63 on 20 November 2018

11/20/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (+3) - 299.00$
2 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 10 (+4) - TP
3 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 17 (-15) - TP
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 24 (+2) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 35 (-) - 299.00$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 60 (+3) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 61 (+4) - 229.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 79 (+4) - 229.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 130 + 41 = 171 points (-72) ; XBO : 165 + 104 + 40 + 22 = 331 point (+32) ; NS : 180 + 82 = 262 points (+15)


- Best Buy :

1 (N) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 1 (N) - SO
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 5 (+17) - SO
3 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 8 (-6) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 9 (+16) - 399.99$
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 13 (+15) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee! - 15 (+19) - 399.99$
7 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 21 (+12) - 299.99$
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 33 (+10) - 299.99$
9 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 42 (+17) - 229.99$
10 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 63 (R) - 429.99$
11 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 77 (R) - SO
12 (-3) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 97 (-4) - 429.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 210 + 170 + 110 = 490 points (+302) ; XBO : 86 + 68 + 38 + 24 + 4 = 220 points (+104) ; NS : 190 + 175 + 150 + 140 = 655 points (+162)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb Spiderman Bundle - 1 (-)
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 4 (-)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 45 (+5)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 51 (+1)
5 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 57 (+2)
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 64 (-6)
7 (-2) - XBox One 1Tb The Dvision Bundle - 67 (-14)
8 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 104 (+17)
9 (+2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 108 (+20)
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 133 (-11)
11 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 154 (+26)
12 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 173 (-26)
13 (N) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 174 (N)
14 (N) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle + Gift Card - 194 (N)

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-5) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 112 (-102)

PS4 : 210 + 106 + 24 + 14 + 14 = 368 points (+18) ; XBO : 205 + 94 + 84 + 49 + 47 = 479 points (+7) ; NS : 100 + 88 + 34 + 4 = 226 points (-53)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 978.7 points (-8.6) ; Month Average : 1359.1 points/day ; 1.0
2 (+1) - XBO : 1072.8 points (+69.5) ; Month Average : 415.6 points/day ; 0.31 (+0.04)
3 (-1) - PS4 : 602.8 points (+20.8) ; Month Average : 393.2 points/day ; 0.29 (+0.01)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - NS : 566.6 points ; Month Average : 947.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 602.8 points ; Month Average : 393.2 points/day ; 0.42
3 - XBO : 1024.2 points ; Month Average : 367.0 points/day ; 0.39