In progress NPD predicting tool

Mbolibombo

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Mbolibombo on 18 November 2018

Nicely matched curves for all the systems :P

Madword said:

Symbios63 said:
11/18/18 :

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1546.9 points (+335.2) ; Month Average : 1406.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 (+1) - PS4 : 632.4 points (+266.8) ; Month Average : 368.3 points/day ; 0.26 (+0.02)
3 (-1) - XBO : 425.9 points (+314.9) ; Month Average : 337.8 points/day ; 0.24 (-)

So is the Spiderman bundle now available for $199?

I think this is where the tool will struggle to accurately match real world (as is expected)....

Be interesting to track the difference between this years days available and last years days available (if anyone has that info) and that could be fed into the tool based on last years sales.

Yep..

Miyamotoo

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Miyamotoo on 18 November 2018

MasonADC said:
Benji said some pretty good stuff about Pokemon Let's go. It should continue to move systems until Smash

Pls link.

MasonADC

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MasonADC on 18 November 2018

Miyamotoo said:

MasonADC said:
Benji said some pretty good stuff about Pokemon Let's go. It should continue to move systems until Smash

Pls link.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/october-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-november-13th.78860/page-18

Sorry if linking isn't allowed

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Miyamotoo on 18 November 2018

Benji last week said "To be clear we are only 1 week into November tracking and Switch is soaring already" and now he said that "Pokemon is giving nice boost to Switch", and Black Friday deal with MK8D Switch bundle yet need to be active. So even if Switch doesn't win October it will do very good in any case and easily better than last year (when sold around 800k).

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Mbolibombo on 18 November 2018

Yep, looks like Spidey is sold out on Amazon. it's going to be sold out online everywhere way before black friday...

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Madword on 18 November 2018

Mbolibombo said:
Yep, looks like Spidey is sold out on Amazon. it's going to be sold out online everywhere way before black friday...

When did it go on sale just today? if so that would be sad if they didnt stock enough consoles, even if its more than last year.. :(

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PortisheadBiscuit on 18 November 2018

Gonna be a great month for Sony and Nintendo, hopefully Switch breaks a million this time.

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Symbios63 on 19 November 2018

11/19/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 2 (-) - TP
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 10 (+5) - 299.00$
3 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 14 (N) - TP
4 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 26 (+43) - 399.99$
5 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 35 (-2) - 299.00$
6 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 63 (-3) - 299.99$
7 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 65 (N) - 229.99$
8 (R) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 83 (R) - 229.00$

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 89 (-53) - TP

PS4 : 205 + 38 = 243 points (-15) ; XBO : 145 + 100 + 36 + 18 = 299 point (+267) ; NS : 165 + 82 = 247 points (+21)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 22 (-12) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 25 (-12) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 28 (-12) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 33 (-13) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee! - 34 (-13) - 399.99$
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 43 (-14) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 59 (-14) - 499.99$
9 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 93 (-14) - 429.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 102 + 86 = 188 points (-77) ; XBO : 66 + 42 + 8 = 116 points (-62) ; NS : 205 + 108 + 96 + 84 = 493 points (-122)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb Spiderman Bundle - 1 (-)
2 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 4 (+11)
3 (+4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 50 (+1)
4 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 52 (-17)
5 (N) - XBox One 1Tb The Dvision Bundle - 53 (N)
6 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 58 (+2)
7 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 59 (+45)
8 (-5) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 112 (-102)
9 (+4) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 121 (+71)
10 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 122 (-9)
11 (R) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 128 (R)
12 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 147 (-35)
13 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 180 (-15)

Out of Top 100 :

2 (R) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 6 (R)
4 (R) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee! - 14 (R)

PS4 : 210 + 102 + 27 + 11 = 350 points (-23) ; XBO : 205 + 98 + 92 + 40 + 37 = 472 points (+243) ; NS : 100 + 94 + 45 + 40 = 279 points (-552)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 987.3 points (-559.6) ; Month Average : 1381.5 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 582.0 points (-50.4) ; Month Average : 380.9 points/day ; 0.28 (+0.02)
3 - XBO : 1003.3 points (+577.4) ; Month Average : 377.0 points/day ; 0.27 (+0.03)

Megiddo

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Megiddo on 19 November 2018

And this week is where another potential flaw with this tool can come into effect. Whereby we have no idea just how far in front #1 is from #2, etc. Over the course of a year where sales are more or less even, this sort of flaw can be minimized, but in terms of relatively small duration of time, like say the week encompassing Black Friday/Cyber Monday, it has potential to produce a large discrepancy. Unfortunately there's not much that can be done in this case.

Anyway, any leaks for October NPD yet