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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

zorg1000 on 29 October 2018
Barkley said:
Nuvendil said:

Red Dead from what we are seeing isn't as big as people thought.  Way bigger than RDR1, a FAR cry from GTAV.  Should still move a healthy number of units.  But all these Xbone deals have definitely taken the spotlight off PS4 at Gamestop.  We'll have to wait and see.  These three months are when predictors tend to become less reliabke, but based on the tool's history, it's design has thus far compensated for potential disruptions by accounting for multiple predictors. It has a much better shot at accuracy.

What did people think, and what are we seeing? xD

I don't think people expected it to come close to GTAV which sits at 100m+ shipped now. It's still going to be in the same league as CoD and Fifa, it's one of the biggest games there is.

I think he meant at launch, not lifetime.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Barkley on 29 October 2018
zorg1000 said:
Barkley said:

What did people think, and what are we seeing? xD

I don't think people expected it to come close to GTAV which sits at 100m+ shipped now. It's still going to be in the same league as CoD and Fifa, it's one of the biggest games there is.

I think he meant at launch, not lifetime.

I'm showing GTA V's insane lifetime sales to put the launch comparison in perspective. You don't need to be near GTAV's launch sales to be one of the biggest games out there. RDR2 is going to do incredibly well, 6m+ launch week globally probably.

It's going to be one of the biggest games out there, might even be the highest selling game of the year. I think it's a bit much to say that it's "not as big as people thought." Don't know who thought it would be equal to GTA V.

Should make it to 20m+ lifetime. It's massive.



Oneeee-Chan!!! on 29 October 2018



zorg1000 on 29 October 2018
Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

I think he meant at launch, not lifetime.

I'm showing GTA V's insane lifetime sales to put the launch comparison in perspective. You don't need to be near GTAV's launch sales to be one of the biggest games out there. RDR2 is going to do incredibly well, 6m+ launch week globally probably.

It's going to be one of the biggest games out there, might even be the highest selling game of the year. I think it's a bit much to say that it's "not as big as people thought." Don't know who thought it would be equal to GTA V.

Should make it to 20m+ lifetime. It's massive.

Gotcha and I agree completely, any comparison to GTAV is a setup for failure.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Ryng on 29 October 2018

Barkley said: 

It's still going to be in the same league as CoD and Fifa

Bigger.

This year FIFA and COD are in the 20 million club. Red Read Redemption will sell 30-35 million LT, possible 40-50 million if they port it on PS5/XB2



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zorg1000 on 29 October 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:

Barkley said: 

It's still going to be in the same league as CoD and Fifa

Bigger.

This year FIFA and COD are in the 20 million club. Red Read Redemption will sell 30-35 million LT, possible 40-50 million if they port it on PS5/XB2

The fact that it wont have a successor next year like FIFA & COD means it should have more longevity.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Nuvendil on 29 October 2018
Mar1217 said:
zorg1000 said:

The fact that it wont have a successor next year like FIFA & COD means it should have more longevity.

I'll be frank. I can honestly see GTA V actually digging in it's potential sales and thus, making it's legs far less viable than GTA V.

That and RDR is just not as strong of an IP nor the same kind of game as GTA.  GTA is more the kind of sandbox you can fire up to just goof around in alone or with friends.  RDR2 isn't shaping up to be *that* kind of thing.  Still lots to do, but a lot more grounded.  I doubt it will have the same kind of pull.  It could still sell tons though, Skyrim sold over 20mil with the original release.  It just won't come even remotely close to GTAV and would be lucky to get close to half of that.  And I know it doesn't HAVE to be compared to GTA, but when people are tossing around numbers like 40 to 50 mil, that's kinda what you're doing, putting it in that same category.

I could be wrong, maybe, but I'm fairly confident in that.



zorg1000 on 29 October 2018
Mar1217 said:
zorg1000 said:

The fact that it wont have a successor next year like FIFA & COD means it should have more longevity.

I'll be frank. I can honestly see GTA V actually digging in it's potential sales and thus, making it's legs far less viable than GTA V.

Sure, I just meant it should have better legs than COD/FIFA



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Replicant on 29 October 2018
Nuvendil said:
Mar1217 said:

I'll be frank. I can honestly see GTA V actually digging in it's potential sales and thus, making it's legs far less viable than GTA V.

That and RDR is just not as strong of an IP nor the same kind of game as GTA.  GTA is more the kind of sandbox you can fire up to just goof around in alone or with friends.  RDR2 isn't shaping up to be *that* kind of thing.  Still lots to do, but a lot more grounded.  I doubt it will have the same kind of pull.  It could still sell tons though, Skyrim sold over 20mil with the original release.  It just won't come even remotely close to GTAV and would be lucky to get close to half of that.  And I know it doesn't HAVE to be compared to GTA, but when people are tossing around numbers like 40 to 50 mil, that's kinda what you're doing, putting it in that same category.

I could be wrong, maybe, but I'm fairly confident in that.

I personally don't see RDR 2 reaching 40-50 mill but that'd still be under half of GTA V's lifetime sales though (it's very close to 100 mill and hasn't stopped selling).



gtjay1982 on 29 October 2018
Marth said:
How much more boost can the PS4 even recieve? It's a system that approaches 90M sold so the system seller effect of software has to wear off at some point.
I think RDR2 has done insanely well but the big effect on PS4 sales just was not there.
The XBO deal is insanely good value which is well represented in the tool.
And the Switch bundles are the wildcard. They kept the system on top of the month and because they are preorders (Smash and D3) they are hard to guess.

It will be an interesting month and I have faith that the tool is right again as it has been since it's inception.

 

Weren't the deals even better in the UK for XB1 with even more games thrown in and it didn't seem to make a difference.