By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2018 NPD Thread! Switch #1

tbone51 said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
I am so lost here.....why do people keep saying stuff like wow PS4 couldn't win with MHW....while it did MUCH better than previous entries of the game......was this supposed to be some huge system seller/pusher for the US to have an impact like that on NPD? I always looked at it and even Dragonball fighter Z to have a bigger impact in Japan WHICH THEY DID lol. So why are people saying stuff like PS4 lost with MHW and Dragonball fighter Z?

Anyway I am back late....do we have any new info?

I think its more to do with switch having no new releases compared to that of x1/ps4 having 2 big games (not system sellers)

Are they really that big outside of Japan though? MHW especially sold great compared to other entries and was #1 but was it really as big of a system seller/pusher in the West as people are trying to make it out to be? And the Switch has won months in which it had no new releases since launch so why is it a surprise that it won lol. It is still the hot new item on the market after all.

wombat123 said:
tbone51 said:

I think its more to do with switch having no new releases compared to that of x1/ps4 having 2 big games (not system sellers)

Yeah, I think some people who are discrediting the impact of MHW and DBFZ in the west for the PS4/XB1 are forgetting that the most relevant release the Switch got in January was a digital, multiplat, indie, 2D platformer in Celeste.

I have seen no one discrediting the impact of MHW and DBFZ in the west but I am seen people pretending they were these huge games in the west like they were supposed to push lots of systems. When the place that they were going to have the biggest impact they did. And as I stated above switch has won months where it had no new releases since it launched. It is still the hottest new item so why is it surprising? The surprise would have come if it HAD NOT won this month.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

Around the Network
SWORDF1SH said:
Finally got to the end.

*Catches breath*

Sooooo the big surprise for me is Xbox. Congrats to Xbox because I thought is was going to drop hard when making predictions a few months ago. All 3 consoles sold amazingly well though. Switch win expected and going by the article, the PS4 was very close to the Switch which wasn't expected.


Side note:
I've mentioned it before and I agree with what people are saying that the quickrick bullying needs to stop. He's not a bad guy and the mods seem to be letting the personal jabs directed at him slide which isn't cool. And about him derailing threads, it's the bullies with mob mentality that attack him that derail threads just because he has a unpopular opinion. The way people are behaving towards him in this thread is another perfect example.

^This.  Individuals with opposing viewpoints or opinions shouldn't have to be forced to conform.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

Lawlight said:
Shadow1980 said:

Usually. While the norm over the past 30 years has been a peak in the second or third full year (though later peaks are becoming the norm for PS & Xbox), occasionally a console will peak in its first full year, though only in a single region. As far as I'm aware, the SNES and N64 were the only first-year peaks in the U.S., while the GBA, Xbox, and Wii were the only first-year peaks in Japan. That being said, such occurrences are rare, and definitely doesn't apply to the PS4, which is in the middle of its life.

As for how this pertains to the Switch vs. the PS4 in the U.S., you are right that the PS4 is selling at around its peak. That the Switch, even with stock issues, has been keeping up with the PS4, even when the latter is selling at its absolute best, is quite an accomplishment. The only reason the PS4 bested the Switch for 2017 as a whole was because it had big Black Friday deals in November while the Switch did not. And when compared to the PS4's 2014, which is a more appropriate comparison, the Switch comes out on top.

Now, we don't know when the Switch will peak, but if I had to guess, maybe no later than next year, seeing as how Nintendo consoles peak earlier than PS & Xbox systems. I imagine that a likely price reductions, the possibility of new models, and of course Pokemon Gen VIII will all be factors that cause it to sell even better than it currently is. I imagine that at its peak year in the U.S., it ought to sell well in excess of 6 million units.

You cannot compare the Switch’s first year to the PS4’s 2014 because the Switch had 2 major selling periods - the launch and the holidays vs the PS4’s holidays only. On top of that, the PS4 was $100 more expensive.

And the only the PS3 and the Xbox360 peaked later so 1 generation doesn’t make it the norm.

That doesn't matter in the slightest. That's a normal price for a home console. $300 for a handheld however is very expensive and the Switch is currently competing against a cheaper PS4 and Xbox One. And it's still kicking ass despite all this. 

PS4 had it very easy actually. Its main competition was a weaker home console that was $100 more expensive and the Wii U.



"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" - Thoukydides

Shadow1980 said:
Lawlight said:

You cannot compare the Switch’s first year to the PS4’s 2014 because the Switch had 2 major selling periods - the launch and the holidays vs the PS4’s holidays only. On top of that, the PS4 was $100 more expensive.

And the only the PS3 and the Xbox360 peaked later so 1 generation doesn’t make it the norm.

@Bolded. Uh, yeah, I can, because that's the time frame that makes the most sense. The only other alternative would be to compare the Switch's 2017 to the PS4's 2013, and while those were both launch years for those systems, we'd be comparing the Switch's 10-month period with the PS4's launch holiday. Not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. That's why comparing the Switch's 2017 with the PS4's 2014 makes more sense. While the Switch did launch in March, it sold about as much that month as one might expect for the whole of Q1 for a system with its level of sales. The Switch sold 910k that month, whereas the PS4 has ranged from 874k to 1007k for Q1 sales. That effectively levels out. That leaves us with both system's first full Q2+Q3 period, and their first full post-launch Q4. It's as close to an apples-to-apples comparison we can get.

And if you want to bring up pricing, well, that pretty much invalidates most comparisons between any two systems, because we haven't had two systems in one generation launch at the exact same price since the PS2 & OXbox.

 

Hiku said:

Since you seem to be aware of these things, what did sales look like for 3DS? If I recall correctly, it sold the most in its first 12 months?

"First 12 months"? No. That still goes to the PS4 this gen. Even without a full post-launch holiday period (which would represent months 13 & 14), the PS4 still outpaced the 3DS launch-aligned. Even if we compare the 3DS's 2011 with the PS4's 2014, which is a more apt comparison for the same reasons I explained to Lawlight above re: the Switch vs. the PS4, the 3DS still loses. The 3DS had a lackluster launch month, and its baseline sales weren't all that great either until it got a price drop. I personally don't like doing straight launch-aligned comparisons of systems that were holiday launches with systems that launched in the first half of the year, but if you insist, then the PS4 still wins regardless.

Also, the Switch sold better last year than the 3DS did in 2011, as well, at least for the year as a whole. Here's a comparison of the Switch's 2017 with the 3DS's 2011, with the PS4's 2014 thrown in for good measure:

Thanks for bringing the facts as usual.  Can't believe he brought up the price difference as a point for invalidation.  



Shadow1980 said:
Lawlight said:

You cannot compare the Switch’s first year to the PS4’s 2014 because the Switch had 2 major selling periods - the launch and the holidays vs the PS4’s holidays only. On top of that, the PS4 was $100 more expensive.

And the only the PS3 and the Xbox360 peaked later so 1 generation doesn’t make it the norm.

@Bolded. Uh, yeah, I can, because that's the time frame that makes the most sense. The only other alternative would be to compare the Switch's 2017 to the PS4's 2013, and while those were both launch years for those systems, we'd be comparing the Switch's 10-month period with the PS4's launch holiday. Not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. That's why comparing the Switch's 2017 with the PS4's 2014 makes more sense. While the Switch did launch in March, it sold about as much that month as one might expect for the whole of Q1 for a system with its level of sales. The Switch sold 910k that month, whereas the PS4 has ranged from 874k to 1007k for Q1 sales. That effectively levels out. That leaves us with both system's first full Q2+Q3 period, and their first full post-launch Q4. It's as close to an apples-to-apples comparison we can get.

And if you want to bring up pricing, well, that pretty much invalidates most comparisons between any two systems, because we haven't had two systems in one generation launch at the exact same price since the PS2 & OXbox.

 

Hiku said:

Since you seem to be aware of these things, what did sales look like for 3DS? If I recall correctly, it sold the most in its first 12 months?

"First 12 months"? No. That still goes to the PS4 this gen. Even without a full post-launch holiday period (which would represent months 13 & 14), the PS4 still outpaced the 3DS launch-aligned. Even if we compare the 3DS's 2011 with the PS4's 2014, which is a more apt comparison for the same reasons I explained to Lawlight above re: the Switch vs. the PS4, the 3DS still loses. The 3DS had a lackluster launch month, and its baseline sales weren't all that great either until it got a price drop. I personally don't like doing straight launch-aligned comparisons of systems that were holiday launches with systems that launched in the first half of the year, but if you insist, then the PS4 still wins regardless.

Also, the Switch sold better last year than the 3DS did in 2011, as well, at least for the year as a whole. Here's a comparison of the Switch's 2017 with the 3DS's 2011, with the PS4's 2014 thrown in for good measure:

its the best comparison we have, although i think if ps4 launched in march it would have sold more consoles then switch, around 1.7 million for march and april, is what i would expect.

Last edited by quickrick - on 22 February 2018

Around the Network
Alkibiádēs said:
Lawlight said:

You cannot compare the Switch’s first year to the PS4’s 2014 because the Switch had 2 major selling periods - the launch and the holidays vs the PS4’s holidays only. On top of that, the PS4 was $100 more expensive.

And the only the PS3 and the Xbox360 peaked later so 1 generation doesn’t make it the norm.

That doesn't matter in the slightest. That's a normal price for a home console. $300 for a handheld however is very expensive and the Switch is currently competing against a cheaper PS4 and Xbox One. And it's still kicking ass despite all this. 

PS4 had it very easy actually. Its main competition was a weaker home console that was $100 more expensive and the Wii U.

No. Not in January anyways. PS4 Skus: 299, 399 and 449 in january.



TheBlackNaruto said:
tbone51 said:

I think its more to do with switch having no new releases compared to that of x1/ps4 having 2 big games (not system sellers)

Are they really that big outside of Japan though? MHW especially sold great compared to other entries and was #1 but was it really as big of a system seller/pusher in the West as people are trying to make it out to be? And the Switch has won months in which it had no new releases since launch so why is it a surprise that it won lol. It is still the hot new item on the market after all.

wombat123 said:

Yeah, I think some people who are discrediting the impact of MHW and DBFZ in the west for the PS4/XB1 are forgetting that the most relevant release the Switch got in January was a digital, multiplat, indie, 2D platformer in Celeste.

I have seen no one discrediting the impact of MHW and DBFZ in the west but I am seen people pretending they were these huge games in the west like they were supposed to push lots of systems. When the place that they were going to have the biggest impact they did. And as I stated above switch has won months where it had no new releases since it launched. It is still the hottest new item so why is it surprising? The surprise would have come if it HAD NOT won this month.

My thoughts exactly..... All of a sudden MHW and DBZ have become these great titles. 

How about they have this conversation again when GOW or RDR2 launches..... hell even then we could still use the (very good mind you) excuse that we are comparing 4yr old consoles to an under 1 year old one. 



Intrinsic said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

Are they really that big outside of Japan though? MHW especially sold great compared to other entries and was #1 but was it really as big of a system seller/pusher in the West as people are trying to make it out to be? And the Switch has won months in which it had no new releases since launch so why is it a surprise that it won lol. It is still the hot new item on the market after all.

I have seen no one discrediting the impact of MHW and DBFZ in the west but I am seen people pretending they were these huge games in the west like they were supposed to push lots of systems. When the place that they were going to have the biggest impact they did. And as I stated above switch has won months where it had no new releases since it launched. It is still the hottest new item so why is it surprising? The surprise would have come if it HAD NOT won this month.

My thoughts exactly..... All of a sudden MHW and DBZ have become these great titles. 

How about they have this conversation again when GOW or RDR2 launches..... hell even then we could still use the (very good mind you) excuse that we are comparing 4yr old consoles to an under 1 year old one. 

Being under 1 year old is not a help.  Consoles peak at year 2, 3, or 4, not 1 typically.  

And no one is saying DBFZ and MHW are massive system sellers.  But they were the biggest sellers of the month and they were more than the Switch had pushing systems.  That is, nothing.



Nuvendil said:
Intrinsic said:

My thoughts exactly..... All of a sudden MHW and DBZ have become these great titles. 

How about they have this conversation again when GOW or RDR2 launches..... hell even then we could still use the (very good mind you) excuse that we are comparing 4yr old consoles to an under 1 year old one. 

Being under 1 year old is not a help.  Consoles peak at year 2, 3, or 4, not 1 typically.  

And no one is saying DBFZ and MHW are massive system sellers.  But they were the biggest sellers of the month and they were more than the Switch had pushing systems.  That is, nothing.

So 10 month baby beat 4 years kid .



Nuvendil said:
Intrinsic said:

My thoughts exactly..... All of a sudden MHW and DBZ have become these great titles. 

How about they have this conversation again when GOW or RDR2 launches..... hell even then we could still use the (very good mind you) excuse that we are comparing 4yr old consoles to an under 1 year old one. 

Being under 1 year old is not a help.  Consoles peak at year 2, 3, or 4, not 1 typically.  

And no one is saying DBFZ and MHW are massive system sellers.  But they were the biggest sellers of the month and they were more than the Switch had pushing systems.  That is, nothing.

But you have to admit that the PS4 in its 4th year to be selling at 299 and selling pretty well is impressive... no?