January 2018 NPD Thread! Switch #1

[Alkibiádēs]

Lawlight said:

Shadow1980 said:

Usually. While the norm over the past 30 years has been a peak in the second or third full year (though later peaks are becoming the norm for PS & Xbox), occasionally a console will peak in its first full year, though only in a single region. As far as I'm aware, the SNES and N64 were the only first-year peaks in the U.S., while the GBA, Xbox, and Wii were the only first-year peaks in Japan. That being said, such occurrences are rare, and definitely doesn't apply to the PS4, which is in the middle of its life.

As for how this pertains to the Switch vs. the PS4 in the U.S., you are right that the PS4 is selling at around its peak. That the Switch, even with stock issues, has been keeping up with the PS4, even when the latter is selling at its absolute best, is quite an accomplishment. The only reason the PS4 bested the Switch for 2017 as a whole was because it had big Black Friday deals in November while the Switch did not. And when compared to the PS4's 2014, which is a more appropriate comparison, the Switch comes out on top.

Now, we don't know when the Switch will peak, but if I had to guess, maybe no later than next year, seeing as how Nintendo consoles peak earlier than PS & Xbox systems. I imagine that a likely price reductions, the possibility of new models, and of course Pokemon Gen VIII will all be factors that cause it to sell even better than it currently is. I imagine that at its peak year in the U.S., it ought to sell well in excess of 6 million units.

You cannot compare the Switch’s first year to the PS4’s 2014 because the Switch had 2 major selling periods - the launch and the holidays vs the PS4’s holidays only. On top of that, the PS4 was $100 more expensive.

And the only the PS3 and the Xbox360 peaked later so 1 generation doesn’t make it the norm.

That doesn't matter in the slightest. That's a normal price for a home console. $300 for a handheld however is very expensive and the Switch is currently competing against a cheaper PS4 and Xbox One. And it's still kicking ass despite all this. 

PS4 had it very easy actually. Its main competition was a weaker home console that was $100 more expensive and the Wii U.