Does this affect the black market price of the console? Or do they generally stay the same?
If it comes for the lower price (1400~) it'll definitely affect it, because there would be no point paying the same for it there if you can get on an official way.
If it comes for the price I expect (1900+) probably not, maybe we shall see some of the smaller prices out there getting higher as it'll still be lower than the official by some amount to keep the attention and the seller can profit more. (For example, I bought Disgaea 5 for the PS4 for 190 before it was announced for the Switch, it came for around 350~400 for the Switch here, and the PS4 version is now around 260 on the same site I got it, yup.)
The biggest issue is the pricing for the games.
If we can get NS games for as lower as Sony games, the system would see a substantial growth in sales. (For example I can pre order GoW right now for 160, while I need around 350 to get Zelda, so yeah...)