By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales - Amazon U.S. February bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

SWORDF1SH on 21 February 2018
zorg1000 said: 

You are saying since it ranks far higher than that means it should sell far higher but its impossible to know how much higher without actual quantities.

Where? 



Around the Network
SWORDF1SH on 21 February 2018
xMetroid said:
SWORDF1SH said:

I don't even think it needs a price drop. It's always high up the charts. 

Well it doesn't but amazon did made a (probably limited) discount and in hours its now out of stock.

Which is crazy for a game that came out a year ago.

It's crazy how Nintendo IPs hold their value. 



zorg1000 on 21 February 2018
SWORDF1SH said:
zorg1000 said: 

You are saying since it ranks far higher than that means it should sell far higher but its impossible to know how much higher without actual quantities.

Where? 

Umm like your last 20 posts?

Thats exactly what you have been arguing this whole time that Amazon is Nintendo biased because it ranks alot higher without NPD numbers having a huge lead.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

SWORDF1SH on 21 February 2018
zorg1000 said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Where? 

Umm like your last 20 posts?

Thats exactly what you have been arguing this whole time that Amazon is Nintendo biased because it ranks alot higher without NPD numbers having a huge lead.

So you missed the post about gauging how well it's selling by using the other 99 items selling around it. Or the bit about when multiple bundles are selling above another console. Rankings do play a part but I can't remember saying that ranking alone is the the only factor



zorg1000 on 21 February 2018
SWORDF1SH said:
zorg1000 said:

Umm like your last 20 posts?

Thats exactly what you have been arguing this whole time that Amazon is Nintendo biased because it ranks alot higher without NPD numbers having a huge lead.

So you missed the post about gauging how well it's selling by using the other 99 items selling around it. Or the bit about when multiple bundles are selling above another console. Rankings do play a part but I can't remember saying that ranking alone is the the only factor

Like i just said, for all we know #1 sold 10,000 last month while #50 sold 5,000 so using the other items around it means nothing.

Ill repost this

 

January Amazon rankings
NSW-13, 17
PS4-34, 53, 63
XBO-52, 68, 85

13 & 17 could be 8000 & 7000 units for a total of 15,000

34, 53 & 63 could be 5500, 4500 & 2500 for a total of 12,500

52, 68 & 85 could be 4700, 2300 & 2000 for a total of 9000.

Now lets say NPD figures for January are

NSW-300k
PS4-250k
XBO-180k

That would make the Amazon % of NPD totals the same for each console which would result in no bias.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Around the Network
GProgrammer on 21 February 2018
zorg1000 said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Well you see everything ranked in the top 100. Make an educated guess. You have 100 ranked items to gauge your estimates off. Plus if you see 2 or 3 bundles for 'Y' before a bundle for console 'X', then that should indicate that console 'Y' is selling at least 2 or 3 times more than that 1 bundle for console 'X'.

You don't really have to think to hard about it to get an idea. 

Doesnt work that way, look at my earlier post.

Actually it does, its called simple math. if you can prove me wrong I will give you a Million dollars

#10 bundle Y

#12 bundle Y

#13 bundle X

my challenge to you zorg1000 to win a million dollars and you can use any numbers you want, is prove that X won't have gotten outsold at least 2:1 by Y



zorg1000 on 21 February 2018
GProgrammer said:
zorg1000 said:

Doesnt work that way, look at my earlier post.

Actually it does, its called simple math. if you can prove me wrong I will give you a Million dollars

#10 bundle Y

#12 bundle Y

#13 bundle X

my challenge to you zorg1000 to win a million dollars and you can use any numbers you want, is prove that X won't have gotten outsold at least 2:1 by Y

Sure when we use made up rankings like that you are correct but look at the example i gave using the actual rankings from my last post.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

SWORDF1SH on 21 February 2018
zorg1000 said:
SWORDF1SH said:

So you missed the post about gauging how well it's selling by using the other 99 items selling around it. Or the bit about when multiple bundles are selling above another console. Rankings do play a part but I can't remember saying that ranking alone is the the only factor

Like i just said, for all we know #1 sold 10,000 last month while #50 sold 5,000 so using the other items around it means nothing.

Ill repost this

 

January Amazon rankings
NSW-13, 17
PS4-34, 53, 63
XBO-52, 68, 85

13 & 17 could be 8000 & 7000 units for a total of 15,000

34, 53 & 63 could be 5500, 4500 & 2500 for a total of 12,500

52, 68 & 85 could be 4700, 2300 & 2000 for a total of 9000.

Now lets say NPD figures for January are

NSW-300k
PS4-250k
XBO-180k

That would make the Amazon % of NPD totals the same for each console which would result in no bias.

So if a console bundle is wedged in the charts around  a bunch of games that you expect to sell around, let's say, 50k for the month. You wouldn't assume that bundle sold about 50k for the month?

I agree with what you're saying. I just don't agree with it being a deal breaker but rather something to consider. 

I've also mentioned that it's hard to prove because of how many ways the charts can be interpreted. I also accept that we need a clear and closer chart to prove the theory right or wrong. Like a scenario where ps4 is at 19 and 20 and Switch at 10 and 11.



zorg1000 on 21 February 2018
SWORDF1SH said:
zorg1000 said:

Like i just said, for all we know #1 sold 10,000 last month while #50 sold 5,000 so using the other items around it means nothing.

Ill repost this

 

January Amazon rankings
NSW-13, 17
PS4-34, 53, 63
XBO-52, 68, 85

13 & 17 could be 8000 & 7000 units for a total of 15,000

34, 53 & 63 could be 5500, 4500 & 2500 for a total of 12,500

52, 68 & 85 could be 4700, 2300 & 2000 for a total of 9000.

Now lets say NPD figures for January are

NSW-300k
PS4-250k
XBO-180k

That would make the Amazon % of NPD totals the same for each console which would result in no bias.

So if a console bundle is wedged in the charts around  a bunch of games that you expect to sell around, let's say, 50k for the month. You wouldn't assume that bundle sold about 50k for the month?

I agree with what you're saying. I just don't agree with it being a deal breaker but rather something to consider. 

I've also mentioned that it's hard to prove because of how many ways the charts can be interpreted. I also accept that we need a clear and closer chart to prove the theory right or wrong. Like a scenario where ps4 is at 19 and 20 and Switch at 10 and 11.

Well the thing is we dont know if Amazon represents a similar percentage of overall hardware, software & accessories.

What i mean is that Amazon could make up 10% of software sales in the US but only 5% for hardware and a whopping 20% for accessories which makes it even harder to predict sales based on what is ranking near it.

 

 

Basically overall we should just continue to do what we have been doing and just use Amazon to predict rankings, not actual sales.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

SWORDF1SH on 21 February 2018
zorg1000 said:
SWORDF1SH said:

So if a console bundle is wedged in the charts around  a bunch of games that you expect to sell around, let's say, 50k for the month. You wouldn't assume that bundle sold about 50k for the month?

I agree with what you're saying. I just don't agree with it being a deal breaker but rather something to consider. 

I've also mentioned that it's hard to prove because of how many ways the charts can be interpreted. I also accept that we need a clear and closer chart to prove the theory right or wrong. Like a scenario where ps4 is at 19 and 20 and Switch at 10 and 11.

Well the thing is we dont know if Amazon represents a similar percentage of overall hardware, software & accessories.

What i mean is that Amazon could make up 10% of software sales in the US but only 5% for hardware and a whopping 20% for accessories which makes it even harder to predict sales based on what is ranking near it.

 

 

Basically overall we should just continue to do what we have been doing and just use Amazon to predict rankings, not actual sales.

Like I said, we need some close months. Before the Switch I believed the bias was in favour of PS4. Now I believe the bias is in favour of the Switch then PS4 then Xbox One. The trouble is, the console I think has the most bias as won the majority of NPDs. This is why Amazon could be accurate. We might see the theory testes GoW month where both consoles should be close to each other in the charts.